A Funny Story About Arsenal Closing the Gap on Liverpool, and More

Some proper analysis!

Arsenal Close the Gap?

After 14 games, or roughly a third of the season in, Liverpool were seven points ahead of Arsenal, same games played.

Arsenal have closed the gap, closed the gap, narrowed in, hunted the Reds down, closed the gap again, forcing hot breath onto the necks of Liverpool, as they close the Reds down, hunt the Reds down, chip away at the lead, close the gap once more, until …

… with 13 games to go, with the same games played, Liverpool are ... seven points ahead of Arsenal, except now with an even bigger goal difference.

And Liverpool’s underlying numbers have actually improved more than Arsenal’s in that time, despite a couple of tough games for the Reds in the past week, including a specific kind of derby they don’t have to face. (Spurs play *football*, and the refs don’t revert to 1973 standards.) Normally, you need to be +1.0 xG Difference to win the league, and the winners are usually nearer +1.5xG Difference per game.

After MW14, the xG Differences per game were:

• LFC +1.05 vs AFC +0.72

After MW25, it’s:

• LFC +1.31 vs AFC +0.77

And again, this has been achieved with more away games for Liverpool than home games in that time. (I stopped tracking Chelsea and Man City weeks ago.)

(Liverpool had tougher Champions League games too, and had better underlying numbers there, as well. And also didn’t lose both League Cup semifinals.)

The gap will probably close as Liverpool go away to Aston Villa and Man City this week, where on average you might pick up 2-3 points out of six, but that will also mean Liverpool will then have played most of their difficult games. Liverpool could still pick up all six points, if they play well (or get lucky), but it’s unlikely.

Indeed, going back to Newcastle away, when the Reds drew to leave the gap at the seven points noted at the start of this piece, and through to Man City away next week, there will have been just five Anfield league games out of the past 14 fixtures; NINE away.

As I noted yesterday, such a distortion is not normal, and will skew the table; especially when that includes the fixtures seen in the run.

But it leaves seven of the final eleven at home.

So the table is distorted, and will be more so by the time next weekend ends. After West Ham at home, Arsenal have six away and six at home.

Then things should tip in Liverpool’s favour, including Arsenal having to visit Anfield and likely win. Arsenal’s creative underlying numbers are terrible, while their underlying defensive numbers are much the same as the Reds’.

Liverpool are creating 2.24xG per game, Arsenal only 1.61xG.

That said, Arsenal are a team to be taken seriously, given the experience of two previous title challenges, even if they didn’t hit 90 points either time, when the Reds lost out with 92 and 97. They’re a properly good side, but we don’t yet know if they’ll ever be a truly great side.

Against the better teams, in a sample of almost 20 games across the two main competitions, Arsenal’s average xG Difference is minimal; Liverpool’s is massive.

So my warning to Reds’ fans is: the gap will probably close this week.

Then, however, it will be set to open again.

But while I said that yesterday was “ugly” in terms of a spectacle, I wanted to highlight some massive positives as the Reds, running out of energy after the midweek exertions in the most emotionally-charged game seen in England this season, held on for the vital three points.

Also, I’ll look more at the run-ins, and how it favours Liverpool, even if this week does not.

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