After 8 Games I Predicted the Current Top 3, and How Liverpool Are Breaking xG

Why Liverpool's New Approach Is Reaping Outsized Rewards

The season is 16 games old. Half the season ago, after eight games, I posted the Relative Performance Index (RPI) table on my ZenDen in the following article:

Objective Data: Liverpool The Best Team in the League This Season

Objective Data: Liverpool The Best Team in the League This Season

I was making the point about how Liverpool had faced tough games, and the then leaders, Spurs, as well as Manchester City, had faced easier games. Liverpool had gone away to tough places, and also had a deficit of home games due to the delay in reopening Anfield.

While the RPI table cannot predict future results, it puts what’s been achieved into context.

This was the RPI table after eight games:

While the actual table then was:

1. Spurs

2. Arsenal

3. Man City

The table now?

1. Liverpool

2. Arsenal

3. Aston Villa

Everyone has to play everyone else twice, by the end of the season. But when you play everyone, and whether it's home or away, skews things.

My recent piece on here showed the games the Reds’ main rivals face in from February onwards. Liverpool now have a run of tough fixtures, but at home.

https://tomkinstimes.substack.com/p/how-liverpool-can-beat-man-city-and

Equally, the Reds have played nine away games already, and just seven at home. Given that Liverpool are strong at home, you also have to factor in general home advantage, which currently stands at 30% more points for all games played so far by the 20 teams:

• 156 home games - 247 points

• 156 away games - 190 points

The eight-game RPI table placed Spurs outside the top four, yet they'd won seven and drawn one. They hadn't done anything wrong. And the RPI table is not perfect; as noted, it cannot predict future form.

And of course, Liverpool had four harsh red cards in the first few games.

So this is not about underlying numbers, but valuing the wins you get. If Liverpool started the season with home games against Luton, Sheffield United, Burnley, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest, I'm not sure how much being top of the league would reflect the quality of the team.

Breaking the xG Rules

I'm also wondering if Liverpool are busting xG a bit. I’m not dismissing the whole model, or that good chances and big chances are not a great thing to have; just that what models see as lesser chances are now, I feel, bigger than they value.

I can think of several reasons for this, which relate to how Liverpool may have changed approach, but also how a fundamental flaw is opening up in the Premier League which few people have cottoned on to, in terms of how to now outscore xG.

This post is for paying TTT Main Hub subscribers only.