All My Officiating Analysis Here, In One Place

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All My Officiating Analysis – Years of Work – In One Place

This was going to be a free article, but I’ve decided to make it subscriber-only for now, in case of mistakes or big omissions on my part. Please comment with any corrections, feedback, omissions, mistakes, etc.

The article is a 1,500-word introduction, then follows a list of over 50 trends, incidents, patterns and other officiating conclusions I’ve made.

This is years of work, after a week spent pulling it all together.

1,500-Word Introduction and Explainer

Clearly obsessively and with the last remaining flecks of hair shedding my shiny scalp, I feel like I want to “solve” Premier League refereeing, just as I want to solve the Zodiac Killer murders whenever I fill my head with podcasts and books and documentaries (good and bad) on the subject.

It feels solvable.

This is mostly about how I feel Liverpool were badly treated during the Jürgen Klopp years, compared to other clubs, and compared to Liverpool before Klopp arrived. But there will be plenty of all-club data shared.

I was going to write one final bullet-point article on all the findings I’ve made on officiating, with each point followed later in the piece with more details.

But the list just got longer and longer.

I’m finding more things, and I feel like it’s genuinely driving me slightly insane. In trying to tie up loose ends I’m finding more and more threads. And some of them are more like slippery eels.

It can’t be done: covering it all. But this is the best I can do, before retiring the subject.

I can’t switch off. I’ve wasted far too much mental energy, and it just carries on past midnight in my brain. I really, really, really don’t want to do this again.

Yet the information would ideally be out there, in one place.

It’s like a puzzle, a riddle, when I have most of the answers, jumbled up, but can’t lay it out in a way that makes sense, and is also accessible and readable.

And weirdly, the more data you find the more you’re probably seen as a crank, for going to the trouble.

Mistakes happen. But a series of mistakes becomes a pattern worth studying.

To publish it all properly, it needs sufficient proof attached. So I need to format tables and create graphs. Then it needs accurate explaining, with context and caveats.

I’ve spent the past week doing just that. But it’s just getting too unwieldy. I’ll publish what I’ve done up to now, but it feels hard to fully finish.

And then, what order do you put things in? How long to introduce it all? Data first, unexplained? I hope this format works best.

I’m also hoping we’ve moved on from the Klopp-hate era ... unless Cootegate has reopened that wound, and we see a reversion to the situation early last season that emerged late the season before, when the refs clearly reacted to Klopp’s bust-up with John Brooks.

Some of the issues, without question, hinge around these words from Peter Walton, in a recent piece in the Times:

“If anything, I think referees are likely to give borderline decisions against home teams at times like this — *they want to show they are not being cowed by the crowd*.” [my emphasis]

Instead of ... just doing their job properly.

*They want to show they are not being cowed by the crowd*

They should not want to be ‘showing’ the crowd anything, other than giving what they see. If you have to make a decision to signal to the crowd, you have started to tip the scale.

The issue for me is often the number of times “seen them given” that are never get given.

The 50-50s and 60-40s that only ever get given one way. Even 70-30s.

I think being told to not bow to intimidating crowds will surely include not bowing to intimidating managers. Add it all together and it’s a mess.

It’s not the clear calls you get right that should be highlighted. It’s the mistakes for and against, not the correct calls for and against. It’s the borderline calls and how often they are given one way or another.

I’m more interested in missing decisions, or outlandish decisions. Or clusters of either.

I also think some of the issues relate to going for the title a lot of the time, but most of the time that doesn’t affect Man City as much (it does in some ways, but not to the same extent; there aren’t the same myths around the Etihad). Sometimes mid-table teams get more decisions, as less hinges on it.

So, yes – I’d really like to stop thinking about all this stuff.

But a sense of injustice and unfinished business is nagging at me. ‘Perfect’ is the enemy of ‘good’, but if making strong claims I feel the pressure to get it fully right. And I won’t have everything right.

I also feel like the tribal nature of fandom means that no one outside the Reds’ fan-base will ever acknowledge it. It feels futile.

Maybe over the years this work has helped push the PGMOL towards honesty on some issues, albeit I’m not the only one who has raised some or most of these anomalies. Beez originally noticed a few of them, and some have been from subscribers’ suggestions or picked up on other sites, but a lot is my own work, or taking others’ work further.

I can’t tell anymore what’s paranoia, what’s just random patterns, and what might be something more; but there’s so much it makes me feel like there’s something more, as confirmed with my doubts about Coote.

I’m still not saying full-blown conspiracy (I never want to go to full-blown conspiracy), but a culture of contempt, and all the ills it brings.

After all, if Klopp and various refs had a clear mutual disdain, as appeared obvious to me as an onlooker, there’s only one side of that equation that holds the power to sway matters; a manager can’t penalise a ref, after all. That will get the manager in trouble.

You can get weird patterns naturally, but the list is worth revisiting.

All clubs can give examples of bad decisions against them and other clubs can then give examples of good examples for them. That’s not how analysis works.

Circumstantial evidence is when things that don’t seem much in isolation start to become huge when, in cumulation, the chance of coincidence evaporates.

However, individually, any piece of circumstantial evidence may mean little or nothing.

Circumstantial evidence is about the totality, not the individual pieces.

A suspect was in the city at the time. So were two million other people. Then, the suspect knew the victim. So did 100 other people. The suspect knew how to tie the special sailing knot used to strangle the victim. Maybe 1% of the population knew how to tie such a knot. The victim was dumped in a lake via a boat, and the suspect owned a boat; but so do other people. A footprint in blood was size nine, the same as the suspect’s. But lots of people have size nine feet. And so on.

The more you add, the stronger the case, and a lot of cases hinge only on circumstantial evidence, with each reducing the likelihood of any one being purely coincidental.

Also, in response to the Coote accusations, it seems like showing two examples of Harry Kane scoring a goal, and five examples of Harry Kane missing a sitter.

Critics of the idea that Coote was biased against Liverpool are the same as showing five examples of Andy Carroll scoring a goal, and two examples of Andy Carroll missing a sitter.

Ergo, Carroll was better than Kane. That’s how evidence works, right?

No.

My thesis was always:

1. Refs seriously hated Klopp.

2. Refs were told to not bow to the Kop.

3. Refs had some xenophobia, or British preferences, and the outdated ideas that foreigners are (the only) cheats.

4. Liverpool and Scousers are unpopular with those from outside the area, and singled out for unique contempt from opposition fans, and refs may be no different. Partly due to past success, partly due to Liverpool’s idiosyncratic nature.

All have been confirmed in 2024.

The question is just, how widespread is it?

Then, the #LiVARpool meme stopped Liverpool getting VAR decisions unless they were ultra-clear, and most were offside-related, which is more objective (certainly in the margin-for-error era).

I felt worn down by it all before the Coote exposé, then invigorated by those disclosures with a sense of vindication, then genuinely shocked at the responses from anyone who wasn’t a Liverpool fan.

Eamonn Sweeney was a rare exception, with the Irish journalists tending to be more objective, in my experience.

“Those sympathising with Coote seemed relaxed about the fact that someone responsible for glaring errors affecting Liverpool seemed to feel genuine hatred for their manager.”

And,

“Last week’s reaction would have been far harsher had Coote been talking about the manager of any other club.”

But I stopped reading all outlets last week, as I felt so gaslit by it all, in general.

It could be revealed that David Coote was betting on Liverpool’s opponents while off his tits on crack in a Thai brothel with a new swastika tattoo, screaming “fuck the Scousers!”, and somehow it would be the fault of Klopp and Liverpool fans.

It genuinely doesn’t matter anymore. No one wants to hear it, beyond those who already know it.

Again:

– No one wants to hear it, beyond those who already know it –

I still want to make my best argument, like bringing a full prosecution case in a trial, but it feels like the judge is a crook, and the jury is tainted. A kangaroo court, if you will, but I’ll give it a go.

All that said, I’ve noted that I think Tony Harrington looks a good referee, and some of the others seem impressive, and plenty seem less-bad recently, albeit it’s still not the most inspiring bunch of officials. Clearly some inexperienced refs will get better with time.

I’ll retain all my spreadsheets (so many spreadsheets!). I really don’t want to feel the need to dig it out again, as if I do, something has gone horribly wrong.

(I also desperately don’t want any more of the recurring nightmares involving Mike Riley and a rubber glove, as Howard Webb approaches with the slippery eel.)

So, here’s a (long) bullet-point list of the things I’ve found and which I could recall, many of which are from a year or so ago (a few even older), but some of which are new. I’ve clearly labelled the period the data covered.

I’ve done enough data analysis and been right about things (see Ian Graham’s book ‘How To Win the Premier League’ as just one example) to know that I may be right about most of this; but even if I’m only right about some of it, what are the implications?

I’ll try and add graphs and charts, and update the article in little ways as and when I can.

I will attempt to address any errors in my work, if there are any. The original data was from a mixture of ESPN, Andrew Beasley, Transfermarkt, FBRef, and other sites listing penalty data, etc. (Some of the older findings were run past academics for statistical significance analysis.)

Again, hopefully this will sit more like a static document detailing the outlier Klopp years, and that will be the end of it. Fingers crossed that things will improve, and we can all move on.

(This season, so far, there have been some terrible refereeing displays by Coote and Hooper, but mostly it’s been okay; albeit Arne Slot has been baffled by how Mo Salah never gets free-kicks, and noted it seems like the refs are trying to do everything to show they are not bowing to home-fan pressure.)

Otherwise, I’d ask that the PGMOL don’t teach referees to overreact against Liverpool at Anfield; to try to be fairer to foreign players and managers; and ideally to train VARs who are not known to the referees, so there is no misplaced loyalty.

Finally, use as much data as possible to assess refs, including long-term patterns.

Right, I’m off for a siesta in Broadmoor.

Publish and be damned!

The Long List of My Officiating Finds

• Item number

• Incident/s, Trends, Topics (Up to November 2024)

• Years Covered

• Explanation (All data is Premier League only, unless otherwise stated)

Please note: it won’t be perfect, and it’s far from everything I have; just the things I could feasibly cobble together, and update if I had new data.

1 – Referees and VARs, Smaller Clubs

2019-2024

Refs and VARs don’t seem to favour bigger clubs and disfavour smaller clubs.

Yet some smaller clubs and some bigger clubs are treated differently to others. A lot of the leaders in a lot of the metrics are “smaller” clubs.

(Some clubs are bigger than others. And some clubs mothers are bigger than other clubs’ mothers. Wait, no…)

There are quite a few areas where the ‘smaller’ clubs do better with officials, the net balance of subjective VAR decisions being one of them.

2 – Total VAR Interventions

2019-2024

624 Var interventions in all Premier League games since introduction, as of November 11th 2024. Of those, 272 were for “objective” offsides and line calls (ball out of play, encroachment, inside/outside area, etc.) That leaves the remainder that are more subjective: red cards, penalties, handballs, etc..

A full and detailed list of all 624 VAR interventions can be found here, at the foot of the article:

Study: A Proper Review of All 600+ VAR Premier League Decisions since 2019

3 – Liverpool VAR = Mid-Table

2019-2024

On all subjective decisions (thus excluding objective offsides) since VAR was introduced, Liverpool rank mid-table, with a balance of zero, as can be seen in the graph and table above.

And of the Main Four (who were the four teams I focused on from 2015 to 2023, before Arsenal had emerged), the Reds fare far worse.

4 – Missing Decisions

2015-2024

Where officials haven’t given Liverpool certain types of decisions for a season, several seasons or even several years, I can usually name half a dozen examples.

So it’s not like those incidents didn’t occur on the field of play; they did, they just got overlooked, ignored and waved away. Yes, sometimes there are no decisions to give. But if that extends to a prolonged period, decisions will likely have been ‘bottled’.

Foul-based DOGSOs are one example (‘Denying Obvious Goal Scoring Opportunity’). Second yellows to opponents are another. Straight red cards are another. Countless penalties that should have been.

5 – Win Percentages

General

Referees can’t really shape win percentages to a great degree, and if a ref does a team’s toughest games, that team will almost certainly win fewer.

Just as, 15 years ago, Liverpool won all ten games Emiliano Insúa played, but that didn’t mean he made the Reds win those games.

Frequency and direction of Big Decisions is more telling, even if they will sometimes have random patterns. Equally, it’s harder to find data for how a match was handled in general, and nowhere lists all the Big Decisions not given.

6 – 300+ Games Without 2 Yellows

2016-2023

Liverpool went over 300 games without a second yellow card to an opponent, when the lowest otherwise was five, and some clubs were 10 or more. There were almost *200* 2nd yellows in the PL in the period when Liverpool never benefited once.

Prior to 2016, Liverpool had 1-3 opposition 2nd-yellows per season (without fail), dating back to 2007, which was nine years before Klopp arrived. (Graph is below, top right corner.)

7 – 300+ Games Without 2 Yellows

2016-2023

In the period when no player received a second yellow vs Liverpool, vs Palace 14, vs Villa 13, vs Chelsea 12, vs West Ham 12, vs Bournemouth 10, vs Spurs 11 and vs Arsenal 10 (vs Man City 7 and vs Man United 6).

Again, clubs like Palace, West Ham and Bournemouth pop up a lot as beneficiaries, often doing best on Big Decisions when they had English or British managers.

8 – Salah and fouls

2017-2024

In 2019/20, when Liverpool won the league, Mo Salah received a free-kick every 120 minutes; Jack Grealish would get one every 20 minutes, and other attacking players between 30-60, mostly. Salah tends to always hover over the 100-minute mark. As Neil Atkinson noted, about 2,000 Premier League players this season have won more free-kicks per 90 than Salah. (https://tomkinstimes.substack.com/p/incredible-mo-salah-stats-that-suggest)

9 – Anti-Foreigner Bias

2011-2019

Based on studying the 600+ penalties from 2011-2019 in the Premier League, British players win more penalties than expected based on minutes played, and concede fewer penalties than expected based on minutes played.

If you wanna know what love is, it’s shown towards the English.

The statistical significance was verified by two academics who looked over the data. (Results are somewhere on the old WordPress TTT, before moving to Substack in 2022.)

Recently, Peter Walton explained that refs had been trained to be wary of the likes of Jürgen Klinsmann and Luis Suarez; but he never listed any English players keen to hit the deck at the slightest glance from an opponent. It’s a multi-national league officiated by (some) Little Englanders.

10 – Penalties

2017-2024

In the equivalent of 185 league games since Mo Salah arrived in England, Raheem Sterling (18) won as many penalties as Salah, Sadio Mané and Roberto Firmino combined (18), with the latter playing the equivalent of 540 league games for Liverpool in the years 2017 onwards.

Jamie Vardy in the equivalent of 182 games won almost as many penalties between 2017-2024 (14) as Mo Salah, Sadio Mané and Roberto Firmino combined.

Anthony Gordon has already won nine penalties in the equivalent of just 90.4 games, so one every ten games. Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Glenn Murray also won/win more penalties per game than Salah, with Wilfried Zaha, who originally played for England, won a high number. It’s impossible to find a foreign player who wins penalties a really high rate.

Below are the games per penalty won, from 2017 onwards; as it relates to games played, comparisons can be made with players who left the league or retired. This is just a random selection of players who sprang to mind. (Bukayo Saka and Jack Grealish don’t win many penalties.)

11 – Penalties

2002-2024

Liverpool get more penalties when they have more British players and/or a British manager, 2002-2024.

The trend rises and falls in line, almost perfectly, with the composition of the side and who is on the sidelines. This is something I looked at around five years ago, and I think the pattern holds, albeit Liverpool have had fewer attacking British players in recent years.

12 – Penalty Ranking vs League Position

2004-2024

No foreign Liverpool manager (15 seasons) in the last 20 years has finished as high in the league penalty rankings than the league table. No British manager (5) has finished below. #germancunt #fatspanishwaiter etc.

(Slot is currently top of the Premier League, and Liverpool are joint-top of the penalty table, albeit with just two from 11 games, which is quite a low total. Also on two are Bournemouth, Newcastle United, Fulham, West Ham United and Brentford.)

13 – No Opposition Red Cards Anfield by Ref

2016-2023

Between 24 Sep 2016 and 19 Aug 2023, as far as I can find, no ref ever produced a straight red card for an opposition player at Anfield; Ramiro Funes Mori was the last player directly sent off for violent conduct or serious foul play, and done so by the ref. There were no second yellows in that seven year spell, but there was a clear handball on the line decided by VAR.

14 – Only Red Cards Anfield by Ref

2016-2023

After Funes Mori leg-breaker on Divock Origi, from 24 Sep 2016 to 19 Aug 2023 the three players given a direct/straight red card by the referee at Anfield were Alisson Becker, 30 Nov 2019; Darwin Núñez, 15 Aug 2022; and Alexis Mac Allister, 19 Aug 2023.

Conclusion would be that refs seem more happy to pull a straight red for Liverpool players at Anfield.

15 – VAR Foul Penalties For

2019-2024

Fouls are the area where Liverpool miss out massively via VAR, perhaps as they have had so many foreign attacking players since Klopp arrived, as well as any disinclination towards Klopp himself.

Liverpool have only ever had two ‘foul’ penalties given to them by the VAR.

Man City have TEN.

And Chelsea 8, Brentford* 7, Manchester United 7, Brighton 6, Everton 6, West Ham United 5, Fulham* 5, Leicester City* 5, Arsenal 4, Burnley* 4, Tottenham Hotspur 4. (* = not always in Premier League 2019-2024.)

16 – Handballs

2019-2024

Liverpool do slightly better than most clubs with handball decisions, but these are lower in overall frequency, and arguably more objective than fouls, as you only really need to focus on the hand and the ball, and not other body parts and also not all kinds of potential ways a foul can be perpetrated (trips, push, pull, shirt-tug, elbow, etc.)

17 – Offsides (and Line Calls)

2019-2024

Liverpool do better than most clubs when it comes to offside overturns (18, or 3.4 per season), but in recent seasons, offsides have been more objective with a margin of error. And a lot of offsides will be clear when the lines are drawn. Per season, the most offside overturns are all non-Premier League ever-presents since 2019, at between 3.5 and 4.0 offsides per season: Southampton*, Brentford*, Bournemouth*, Nottingham Forest*, Watford*. Liverpool obviously used a very high line that caught a lot of players offside, so this is perhaps where the nonsense of #LiVARpool came from, in 2019/20, and myths start to affect officials.

18 – Coote and Offside

2020

It’s hard to list the offsides that were close enough for a VAR to have to make a personal call (if the lines were too close), but in the very first season, before margin of error was built in, David Coote, having already fallen out with Klopp, denied a last-minute Liverpool derby winner for offside that to everyone watching looked level, while the line looked skewed/distorted. It seems he should have favoured the attacking team (Liverpool).

More on Coote later, obviously.

There was also Roberto Firmino’s offside armpit, but Coote was not involved in that. You’ll have some like that, but that Coote was involved in the one above is yet more circumstantial evidence of how he calls borderline calls, from the days when offsides were more of a wild west.

19 – VAR Foul Penalties Against

2019-2024

Man City’s only VAR penalty against was in 2019, almost 200 games ago.

Liverpool have three against, and yet only two for, in terms of foul penalties. But City don’t concede handball penalties either via VAR.

Man City have ten foul penalties for, and only one against.

Yet we can name the clear Jeremy Doku foul at Anfield and the clear Rodri handball at Goodison, that would have swayed the title race more in Liverpool’s favour in 2022 and 2023 respectively.

Once an official has said both players come in high, how can you ever trust reality again?

20 – DOGSO? Anfield? No!

2014-2024

Harry Maguire back in his Leicester days in 2018/19 only got a yellow for a foul on the halfway line when I think it was Sadio Mané he wasn’t going to catch. Twice Mo Salah has been clearly fouled when in on goal, close to the Kop area, and no free-kick was given either time, let alone the reds they warranted. Diogo Jota was fouled when past the last man against Chelsea, but only a yellow was given, which may have been the correct decision but could also have been a red.

Last opposition DOGSO at Anfield, that didn’t involve a handball? Could or should have been Maguire, Tosin, Jamal Lascelles, Leon Bailey. I can’t even remember when the last DOGSO red at Anfield was, full-stop.

On the 2018 one on Salah, Dermot Gallagher’s name in caps noted:

DERMOT SAYS:

“The only decision here is: is it a foul? And if it is a foul, it’s a red card. And yes, I do think it is a foul. The player [Lascelles] clearly hasn’t gone to play the ball.”

On the Coote one just over a week ago:

DERMOT SAYS:

“If I was a referee, the minute Salah got clipped I'd blow my whistle. I'd be in control of the situation. I can justify stopping the game because I'm going to send him off. The referee does not think it's a foul for whatever reason - he says 'no foul' twice.”

(For whatever reason; this was said before the Coote videos emerged.)

So, it should be two definite DOGSO reds, and possible two more DOGSO reds.

21 – Inexperienced Refs

2015-onwards

Inexperienced refs seem to be primed to punish Liverpool and/or ignore any genuine Kop appeals as they’ve been taught to show strength by “not bowing to the crowd” (ditto dealing Klopp), as admitted by Peter Walton as to how refs approach games. With this mindset, you get a whole series of iffy data. But this also ties in with when Things Boiled Over.

22 – When Things Boiled Over

2023

Against Spurs, in 2023, Klopp had a major shouting match with John Brooks (30 April 2023). Antony Taylor did one of the next games, Brentford at home, and it was weird how he seemed to give absolutely everything to them, which isn’t his usual Anfield attitude.

Brooks, a new ref, didn’t send off Tyrone Mings a few games later for the flying kick into Gakpo’s chest, which was accidental but extremely dangerous. Obviously Mings was also an England international.

(There was an incident around this time where Diogo Jota caught Oliver Skipp who ducked into a raised boot, but Jota was stationary, not moving towards the ball in the way Mings was, and in the way Sadio Mané was in 2017 when sent off at Man City.)

Brooks was one of three newer, less-experienced refs to send off four Liverpool players within the 12 games following that Spurs match, away, into 2023/24.

That period of officiating was insane, and it came on the back of Klopp being slated for his treatment of Brooks.

23 – Thomas Bramall

2023

Rookie Thomas Bramall sent off Mac Allister in his first Liverpool match, Kop end, later overturned by the panel.

But not by Paul Tierney, who was the (sleeping?) VAR.

24 – Simon Hooper and John Brooks

2013-2023

With the data of all refs and all their decisions for all teams (including every foul) from 2013-2023 (partway through last season), Simon Hooper (77 games) and John Brooks (23) had done exactly 100 games. They’d sent off just four players in those 100 games. Three were to Liverpool players, in two games.

In the other 98 games, they red-carded one player. (Outlier)

25 – Not Giving Liverpool ANY Free-Kicks In First Half

2024, + Slot

Simon Hooper averages 21.8 total fouls awarded per game. The all-ref average is c.22. Hooper was then in charge this season when Liverpool had to wait until the second half for a free-kick, with 11 going to Crystal Palace up to that point, which seems beyond all laws of probability and all laws of football.

At Everton away earlier this year, where the home team were extremely physical (as normal), it took 38 minutes (until after Everton had scored) for the Reds to get a free-kick from Andy Madley, by which point Everton had won nine.

While this would not involve VAR intervention, it’s interesting that David Coote was the VAR both times, and perhaps paired with his pals?

26 – Coote and the Germans

2019-2024

As Andrew ‘Beez’ Beasley pointed out, only twice in the last 10 years has a team dominating possession conceded 20 fouls for only 4 or 5 in their favour. The ref both times was David Coote, the managers both times German (Klopp and Thomas Tuchel). This is evidence of the game management highlighted above, by Hooper and Andy Madley.

27 – Success Breeds Contempt

2015-2023

In some old analysis I did, refs who grew up during Liverpool’s period of dominance were generally less generous than the next generation of refs born after 1980 (and were only 10 when Liverpool’s dominance ended), post-2015.

28 – Big Decision Frequency

2015-2023

Big Decision frequency for Liverpool, Man City, Man United and Chelsea (2015-2023) combined underpinned my Expected Big Decisions model.

The ratio was 1.68-1. So, for every one Big Decision against, these clubs would get almost 1.7 for.

This is vaguely in keeping with all game-based metrics like xG difference, possession difference, shot difference, etc. (Clubs chosen as the best four teams, prior to Arsenal emerging.) Better teams are in the opposition box more, and opponents are in their box less.

29 – Big Decision Frequency Anomaly

2015-2023

Manchester City, with the best xG ‘GD’ by a reasonable distance, get the best Balance of Big Decisions (Main Four). This is to be expected.

Liverpool, with the 2nd-best xG ‘GD’ by a reasonable distance, get the worst Balance of Big Decisions, at roughly 14 fewer than expected.

This makes zero sense.

30 – Liverpool’s Average Big Decision Record With All Refs With <18 PL Games

2015-2023

As of 2023, in almost 100 games combined, the refs who had done under 18 games involving Liverpool had an average expected Big Decision ratio (when compared to the Big Decision frequency for Liverpool, Man City, Man United and Chelsea combined) that was ludicrously below what you’d expect to see; as if they felt unable, unwilling or not strong enough to give Liverpool Big Decisions.

31 – Crazy Scatter Plot

2015-2023

“Refs’ Records Main Four Clubs Since 2015 (Unadjusted For VAR) - Balance of Big Decisions Per Game. Expected Decisions.”

A busy graphic (SORRY!), but which illustrates the position of each ref above and below the expected line for each of the four main clubs, and how they tend to funnel towards normality over time.

It also shows most of the red dots below the average line, and two of the four above it had retired or were inactive.

(Again, sorry it looks like a load of Pollocks!)

32 – Objective Referee Rater

2015-2023

For this, I looked at Big Decision Ratio, Homer Rating, Big Decision Frequency, as averages; with the smaller the deviation from each average meaning the ‘better’ (or more normal) the ref was.

(Again, using the same four clubs, 2015-2023, involving over 1,000 games and dozens of refs.)

33 – Referee Rater vs LFC Big Decisions

2015-2023

The best refs, as rated by the data and by experts, are the ones who give Liverpool a good share of their Big Decisions, while all the other refs tend to not give Liverpool an expected rate of Big Decisions. I created a coefficient to rank the best refs in relation to how close their data was to ‘normal’, and the best ones were Michael Oliver, Anthony Taylor, Andre Marriner and Kevin Friend, four of the only five refs to give Liverpool a healthy number of decisions.

34 – Familiarity Breeds Contempt

2021-2023

In recent years, Liverpool had fewer different refs per season than other clubs, with familiarity breeding contempt in both directions. That has started to change in 2024/25. For a while, it was Paul Tierney every third game.

35 – Coote In Early VAR and Ref with LFC

2019-2020

In his first game involving Liverpool, Coote missed a clear foul on Sadio Mané in the Sheffield United penalty box (another one of those I hadn’t even realised or remembered that Coote was involved in, but remember the incident well).

In his second, he allowed a foul on Divock Origi to stand as United broke and scored, as well as correctly ruling out a Mané goal for handball. Another that I’d initially forgotten was Coote.

His third game was his first as a ref, when he missed a clear foul on Andy Robertson in the Kop-end box at an empty Anfield in 2020. His fourth was to miss the insane challenge by Jordan Pickford on Virgil van Dijk, as well as ruling out the Reds’ winning goal when it looked level.

Four games, five major errors!

Some say that this was around the time he said that Klopp was a ‘German cunt’, as the person filming him said that they all hate Scousers.

It would then be nearly three years since he’d do another Liverpool game, with people like me suggesting he seemed to hate Jürgen Klopp; albeit we didn’t think he’d hate him quite as much as the videos now suggest.

It’s hard to think of a run of games where so many calls went against Liverpool, and he only returned to duty in Liverpool games in 2023, presumably knowing he has to be on better behaviour, and well aware that he has been saying some hideous things about Klopp and Liverpool.

36 – Coote In Later VAR and Ref with LFC

2023-2024

Coote gave Liverpool a clear and obvious handball against Everton’s Michael Keane that was blindside of the ref, and close to goal, and clearly denying a goalscoring chance for a cross going across the six-yard box. Not a borderline call, easy to give to Liverpool.

If this is your evidence that he didn’t resent Liverpool or Klopp, then all hope is lost. This is as clear as you can get for an arm outstretched blocking the ball.

But two months later, Coote does not give an even clearer double-handball against Martin Ødegaard in the tight title-race. Ødegaard lost his balance, and rather than accidentally handling, he grabbed the ball twice to stop Mo Salah gaining possession.

Howard Webb: “The feedback we got back afterwards was very clear, the game expects a penalty in this situation and I would agree. As such, this one did not reach the right outcome on that basis.”

Then come two games as VAR, when the ref runs the game against Liverpool (noted above). Dominik Szoboszlai was pushed into Virgil van Dijk for the second Everton goal in the Goodison derby, but Coote did not intervene. Not much was made of that, and that’s fine if these things are ignored, as they mostly are; but sometimes a lot is made of a foul Liverpool defenders make along these lines.

Reffing vs Brighton at Anfield, Coote gave 20 free-kicks to Brighton and only five to Liverpool (outlier). He did intervene in the meaningless last game of last season, to recommend the referee checks a potential red by a Wolves player. But it was a dead rubber.

And then the most recent one, where he didn’t give a foul for what everyone says was a clear Kop-end foul at a vital early point in a vital game with the score at 0-0, and did not send off Leon Bailey, which is always, always, always give as a foul, even if accidental – but in this case, Bailey grabbed Salah (outlier).

With Paul Tierney as the VAR, who has never given Liverpool a VAR call in over 20 games (but four against), it may not have been straightened out by the VAR had Darwin Núñez not scored. Coote was reffing only his third league game at Anfield, and only his second with a crowd. So it also fits the pattern of inexperienced refs who go against Liverpool and logic at Anfield to prove themselves as ‘strong’.

37 – Coote Overall

2019-2024

I can’t think of any decision Coote has given in Liverpool’s favour that wasn’t clear and obvious. He has also given some clear and obvious ones against Liverpool, exactly as he should have done.

But that leaves 5-10 difference incidents and scenarios that looked ‘iffy’. As I’ve said before, if you compare it to the police, some rogue police officers will stop or arrest people they don’t like the look of, but they won’t do it all the time, or to everyone.

38 – Homer? Looking at Main Four, Home and Away

2015-2023

David Coote is generally a massive homer in Main Four matches towards the Main Four, but Stuart Attwell is the king of the spineless. Attwell just seems to give Big Decisions to Main Four clubs when they are at home, and to their opponents when they are away. Attwell is a serious outlier in general, if not specifically for Liverpool.

Mike Dean, who seems like he just agrees with what everyone says on Sky, was another who just gave the decisions to whoever was at home, as if he just agreed there, too.

And while Liverpool scored, and it made the following moot in terms of a penalty, this was not penalised with a red card. Mike Dean was the ref, Stuart Attwell the VAR.

I know! Knee and forearm smash to the face!

Who was the VAR for this below?

Stuart Attwell.

I know!

He said “they both came in high”.

(And he wasn’t referring to David Coote and a pal after a trip to the pub.)

39 – Penalties

2018-2020

For a period of a couple of years, Spurs won more penalties at Anfield (two) than Liverpool. One of Spurs’ penalties was awarded after the ref, Jon Moss, asked someone to check the video evidence, pre-VAR (2018), which I think is the only captured incident when that happened, despite not being allowed. (Outlier.)

40 – Penalties

2015-2023

During the Klopp era, Liverpool won half as many home penalties as Manchester City, and half as many home penalties as Manchester United. As of 2023/24, Liverpool started to win Anfield penalties again at a more normal rate.

41 – Penalties Won Per Touch In Opposition Box

2015-2021

From data I ran back in 2021, going back to 2015, Man City won 50% more penalties per touch in the opposition box, albeit they still ranked quite low. Man United won more than twice as many as Liverpool. The teams who had slightly better or slightly worse data than Liverpool in both boxes were Cardiff, Burnley, Swansea, Watford, Norwich, Leeds, Stoke and Huddersfield. Liverpool ranked 24th out of the 27 teams in terms of balance of penalties conceded and won in relation to penalty box touches. (Outlier)

42 – Penalties, Winning 10+ Per Season

2015-2024

Since 2015, Man City have had SIX seasons of 9+ league penalties (at least one every four games); Liverpool just one.

Others with 9+ are Man United 3, Chelsea 3, Bournemouth, Leicester and Crystal Palace 2.

Liverpool won the league in 2020 with only five penalties. Some of these clubs won 11, 12, 13 or 14 penalties in a single season. Liverpool last hit double-figures with 12 won in 2013/14, with seven of the 12 won by English players (and two more were handball and thus not won by anyone specific). Jon Flanagan won as many penalties in 2013/14 as Roberto Firmino from 2018 to 2023 (one).

43 – Martin Atkinson Goes On Strike

2015-2022

Martin Atkinson used to give a Big Decision in Liverpool games, for or against, every third game or so, until Steven Gerrard wrote a book that included criticism of Atkinson, which coincided with Klopp taking charge. Thereafter, Atkinson almost never gave a Big Decision, as if going on strike. He gave just one to Liverpool and two against in his final 26 games. Who said refs don’t bear grudges and take them into their work?

A big call he ignored was Naby Keïta being totally taken out in the box vs Leicester in the 2019 title run-in, which Liverpool ended up drawing.

44 – Later Interventions For

2019-2024

Mike Dean recently mentioned about why refs avoid early bookings, and fear of early decisions in general seems a thing. On average, VAR calls are slightly lower in the first 20 minutes of matches, but Liverpool don’t get any.

Liverpool have had to wait until the 28th minute at the earliest for a VAR call in their favour; SIXTY-TWO decisions have been made for clubs at points in games where Liverpool had zero.

From minutes 0-27, Arsenal, Brentford*, Brighton, Everton, Manchester United all have six; Manchester City and Newcastle five; Burnley* and Leicester City* have four, despite the asterisk of non-ever-presence (ditto Brentford).

For some reason, VARs just won’t intervene before the half-hour mark, roughly, in Liverpool’s favour; but will do so for other clubs, and do so against Liverpool.

It’s as if they’re scared to do anything consequential in tight games, or early in games, to deservedly benefit Liverpool. (Outlier)

45 – Earlier Interventions Against

2019-2024

Lee Mason, Paul Tierney, Darren England and Paul Tierney (again) all gave VAR decisions against Liverpool from minutes 0-27, thus earlier than any ever given to Liverpool by a VAR.

In general, VARs don’t get as involved when Liverpool are playing, and even less when the game is at Anfield. Decisions listed favoured Fulham, Man United, Spurs and Man United. Darren England had a busy day. (Outlier)

46 – An Onside Goal Given As Offisde

2023

Darren England was at the heart of the Luis Díaz fiasco, where Díaz was yards onside, and poor communication led to offside being given. (Outlier.) He’d already primed the ref, Simon Hooper, to see Curtis Jones’ fair tackle (his foot hits the side of the ball and then rolls over, his other foot never leaves the ground) at its misleading worst, before Hooper sent off Diogo Jota for two yellows, neither of which was a foul.

England hasn’t done Liverpool again, but Hooper has, and failed to give Liverpool a free-kick into the second half, as noted.

47 – The Warped Reaction To Diaz ‘Goal’

2023

The incident was ‘covered up’ by Sky Sports, who, inexplicably, did not show a replay until the end of half-time, and did not analyse it properly until the result of the game was confirmed, and so no one could question the validity of playing on.

Also, Liverpool and Klopp did not ask for the game to be replayed, but Klopp’s words were twisted to suggest he had; he said ideally it would be replayed, but he wasn’t calling for it or expecting it.

However, ’neutrals’ then said officials will now seek to even it up for Liverpool, and that must not be allowed to happen!

48 – Simon Hooper

2022

Keith Hackett said (2022) of the ref in the above game:

“Sadly I believe that he is not up to the standard required of a Premier League referee. His mobility is below the standard expected of an elite referee and it means he becomes detached from play and then makes errors. I would remove him from the list.”

He ranked him as the worst ref in the league. Again, he’d never sent off a player until Liverpool visited Spurs. Hackett rated Oliver and Taylor as 1st and 2nd.

Again, as well as sending off two Liverpool players at Spurs last season, he also went 50 minutes without giving Liverpool a single free-kick at Palace this season.

49 – Manc+Scouse Bend-Over-Backwards-Bias

2015-2023

On average, a Mancunian at Anfield and a Liverpudlian at Old Trafford are going to be ultra-generous (bar the odd exception).

• When these same refs do those same teams in away games, they seem extra punitive.

• Anyone reffing their hometown club and their home stadium is also much less generous.

• In terms of ratio of Big Decisions For vs Big Decisions Against, the ref is virtually THREE TIMES more generous when a Liverpudlian is in Manchester or a Mancunian in Liverpool, to if the ref was doing their hometown/home club.

For Liverpool, Mancunians are terrible as VARs, perhaps as, as with away games, they don’t have to try and look unbiased. But Paul Tierney, from Greater Manchester, is often the outlier.

The key to the graphs is the difference in the red and green bars, home and away. So, doing the non-local rival at their ground will see over-generosity (top graph), contrasting with away games (bottom graph).

50 – Elbowed

2023

The only Premier League player ever assaulted by an official, as far as I know, was Andy Robertson, by Tierney’s regular assistant, Constantine Hatzidakis. I remain staggered that more was not made of this, but and Tierney should have red-carded his assistant, but didn’t. Robertson and Liverpool helped both officials by not taking it further. (Outlier.) To me, it summed up the war-like mentality officials went in with, with a predetermined negative attitude.

Outcome?

On Thursday, it was confirmed that the official would not face any further action, with a statement reading: "We have thoroughly reviewed all of the evidence in relation to the recent incident at Anfield involving the Liverpool defender Andrew Robertson and match official Constantine Hatzidakis, and we will be taking no further action.

"Our comprehensive process involved reviewing detailed statements from Liverpool and PGMOL, as well as multiple angles of video footage, in relation to both the incident and its surrounding circumstances."

Hatzidakis also released a statement via the PGMOL, explaining that he had apologised to Robertson wanted to draw a line under the incident.

"It was certainly not my intention to make any contact with Andy as I pulled my arm away from him and for that I have apologised," Hatzidakis said.

As annoying as Robertson can be to neutrals, he and Liverpool let Hatzidakis off.

Robertson didn’t deserve to be elbowed, just as Klopp didn’t deserve bad officiating for his team.

51 – Paul Tierney

2017-2024

Tierney was one of the first refs to fall out with Klopp, over a disallowed handball Liverpool winner in 2017 in Tierney’s first game, at a time when the ball accidentally ricocheting in off a hand (Dominic Solanke) was still legal.

From then on, Tierney gave Liverpool nothing, and his assistant that day, who flagged the handball, would later elbow Andy Robertson.

52 – Paul Tierney Blew Whistle Early

2021

Paul Tierney blew for half-time several seconds early at Old Trafford, when Sadio Mané was in on goal. Have you ever seen this before, or since? (Outlier)

If anything, refs let play go a few seconds past the allotted time if a clear attack is underway.

53 – Paul Tierney as VAR

2019-2024

Paul Tierney’s four VAR incidents with Liverpool involve not overturning the silly red card to Alexis Mac Allister, and before that, two soft decisions benefiting Man United and one ‘seen them given’ handball against Joe Gomez at Man City.

To this day he has never intervened on Liverpool’s behalf.

Tierney penalised Virgil van Dijk for jumping on the same football pitch as David de Gea, who dropped the ball for Roberto Firmino to score.

54 – Paul Tierney as VAR

2020

“Former Premier League referee Peter Walton agreed with Gary Neville and Roy Keane that VAR was wrong to disallow Roberto Firmino's goal against Manchester United.”

A year later, Tierney overruled a penalty to Liverpool when Eric Bailly went straight through Nat Phillips, because of a minuscule touch of the ball that was irrelevant, as ball went in odd direction due to the merest of touches, and the tackle was off the ground and out of control.

55 – Paul Tierney Took 33 Games To Give Something To Liverpool

2017-2023

After 16 league games as a ref involving Liverpool, Paul Tierney had never given the Reds a penalty, and in 24 games as a VAR has never made an intervention in Liverpool’s favour.

As of April 8th 2023, after SIX YEARS, Tierney had never given Liverpool a positive Big Decision in 33 games, with 16 as ref and 17 as VAR. But after 33 games he had given several Big Decisions against Liverpool. Away from Anfield, his record is still zero to the Reds*.

He has given more penalties to Carlisle United (four) in eight games than to Liverpool in 30 as a ref.

All three penalties given to Liverpool were wild, stonewall take-outs.

(Note: * Tierney gave only a yellow to Chelsea’s Andreas Christensen for a DOGSO in 2020, which Michael Oliver had him view on the screen to upgrade to a red, so the Big Decision was a VAR overturn.)

56 – Paul Tierney as Ref

2021

The game away at Spurs in late 2021 was another weird one, with Harry Kane not sent off for the worst challenge in the game, but with Andy Robertson sent off later in the match. Diogo Jota was clotheslined in the box, nothing was given.

This is what you call a ‘leg breaker’.

A really odd display from referee and VAR (fellow Mancunian Chris Kavanagh, who is pretty generous to Liverpool at Anfield via the Mancunian Reverse Bias, but not when not at Anfield, such as in away games and when at Stockley Park).

While all clubs will have games like this, it’s the cumulation of data and incidents that makes the case against a group of referees.

Tierney is one of those most likely to give penalties (all clubs, all games, below from data 2013-2023), yet his frequency for Liverpool remains well below his norm. Jota at Spurs was just one example of penalty where no penalty was given. Even now, it’s just one penalty to Liverpool every 10 games when Tierney is ref.

57 – Paul Tierney as Ref

2024

Against Chelsea earlier in 2024, Tierney actually looked very generous to Liverpool. I liked this new Tierney! Maybe it was because the Kop had wised up to him. Few refs are singled out, in contrast to the way away fans always call the ref a Scouser (even if he’s a Manc!).

Tierney was also criticised for Liverpool’s late winner at Nottingham Forest, when he gave the ball back to the Liverpool keeper, but had done so earlier in the match to Forest. And it took two minutes from the event, so hardly a major gaffe.

Tierney has yet to ref Liverpool in 2024/25 at the time of writing. He was VAR in the Cootastrophe vs Villa, but again, as VAR, Tierney has only ever intervened against Liverpool.

58

And …

?

Maybe more to follow, allowing for any omissions, corrections, edits and additions.

But also, hopefully not. Hopefully I’m done. I apologise to anyone who has lost an hour of their life that they won’t get back, but in truth, no one ever gets any hours of their lives back.

Hopefully I can just focus on Slot’s Liverpool, and joy, and a love of the game.

(Note to self: don’t hold breath.)