Champions League Draw (and Man Utd Defeat) Massively Boost Liverpool’s League Title Chances

Latest Analysis of Density and Intensity of Run-ins

Above: Sky’s manager montage for the run-in

The preamble ends now.

Two weeks of international break, then the run-in begins.

Liverpool’s game against Manchester United was an unhelpful battle, where winning would bolster belief but take up vital energy; but losing, while also requiring energy, would free up space in an already overcrowded final quarter of the campaign.

Man City have just been handed a Wembley tie against Chelsea, who on their day can cause problems (as they have to City already this season). It’s more what it might take out of City that I’m interested in, and how it messes with their run-in.

There’s already no room – or as yet, no rearrangement – for Liverpool’s trip to Everton, or Arsenal’s game against Chelsea, or City’s trip to Brighton.

City now also have to rearrange their game away against Spurs, while Arsenal have the toughest run-in by far.

Where Brighton vs Man City and Spurs vs Man City sit in the calendar could make all the difference.

Density and Intensity Updated

Since before the start of the year I’ve been looking at the run-ins of Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City.

I wrote this in December:

Fixture Density and Intensity, and How It Can Help Liverpool Win the Title

And I’ve always seen the spring as favouring Liverpool, albeit that was before the injury list hit a dozen. It was down to just nine for the Man United game, plus two on limited minutes due to just returning. They should have been playing against 10 men and likely no extra-time had the referee done his job properly.

If Liverpool can get the injuries down to around 4-6 for the post-international break run, they can rotate and stay aggressively energetic; with the same 11-13 players playing game after game lately, which is where both Density and Intensity come in.

This was, after all, only a week after playing Man City, and only three days after a Europa League game that, while a stroll, meant senior players had to play as there’s no room to train properly.

If the injuries stays at or returns to double-digits later on, then for all the brilliance so far against the odds, it may reach breaking point; as it did only later in the match at Old Trafford. With no other competitions to worry about and still adrift of even 5th place, this was Man United’s cup final. Their week was not Dense; it was free. They had eight days a week to prepare.

(Players like Diogo Jota and any others in the same boat returning for the run-in, where they won’t immediately go into the team, but will be a huge bonus – when it seems that their seasons were written off.)

Things can always change, albeit what Gary Neville was smoking when he said Spurs would finish above Liverpool when they got their players back is hard to know; since when, Liverpool have suffered a ton of injuries (and widened the gap).

Again, he wasn’t paying attention.

As I’d already said a quarter of the way into the season, Spurs’ insanely ‘easy’ first 10 games, where one of two really tough opponents, Liverpool, were farcically reduced to nine men (the first to be sent off was early in the game) and had a legitimate goal ruled out, skewed their results, even if injuries then coincided with what I would have said was an expected downturn in Spurs’ fortunes.

Neville seemed to not look closely enough to why Spurs’ start to the season was so much better than expected, playing so many out-of-form teams and relegation fodder.

Great start to the season + injuries = return to great form when injuries ease? But that was only half the story.

Part of the point of analysing opposition quality is that if, as Spurs did, you face Brentford (second season syndrome), Bournemouth (struggling to change style), Burnley (promoted), Sheffield United (promoted), Luton Town (promoted), Fulham and Crystal Palace in your first 10 games (as well as a struggling Man United), and the teams you play are averaging below one point per game, your wins, while not there to be criticised, are also not representative of your quality.

After eight games, the 8-game PPG of the teams Spurs had played was just 0.79. Liverpool’s was 1.58, with Bournemouth, then in 19th place in the table, at 1.88. A logical conclusion would be that Spurs would regress when playing even normal-standard teams, and Bournemouth would do better once not playing the best teams every week.

(That said, Spurs’ poor xG Difference at this juncture now – with 50 xG Against and only a little more xG For – suggests the underlying numbers aren’t that much better than a team like Brentford’s, but I do think Spurs play attractive, attacking football. I just think everyone’s perceptions were skewed by their start, and as well as Ange Postecoglou did, everyone got carried away.)

It’s also why Patrick Vieira was so harshly sacked last season after possibly the toughest run of games I’ve ever seen, and why Roy Hodgson’s arrival to replace him at Palace coincided with a natural upturn.

You may not beat all the weaker teams and you may not always fail to beat the best teams, but on average, your results will fall into those two camps; or your PPG will reflect it in some way. If you’ve just had an insanely tough run, as Palace had, then the next guy gets the better odds (as well as a clear-the-air advantage).

Even the very best sides will usually not get close to winning against all the other better sides.

My theory for nearly two decades has been that it’s the quarters and semi-finals of the Champions League where seasons come unhinged, as a mixture of super-tough opposition and games every 3-5 days unravels all the good work, as a mixture of Density (lack of time between games) and Intensity (extra effort needed to play the better sides).

And if you have an all-English head-to-head (as often seemed to happen to Liverpool in the 2000s, with three against Chelsea and one against Arsenal, and also happened with Arsenal being derailed by Chelsea in 2003/04), it can take its toll.

Opta, as shared on the BBC, have already shown that, on paper, Arsenal have the toughest run-in compared to City and Liverpool, with Liverpool’s the easiest. But in their system, there’s not a lot of variation; just a few percentage points.

As handy as this is, it doesn’t take into account the Density and Intensity of the games in between.

Remember, these games don’t take place in a vacuum.

You know that if you play Man City 48 hours after you play Arsenal, you’ll be less likely to beat Man City, especially if they’ve had more time.

You know that you won’t be averaging 2.5 points per game in extended runs of this nature.

A lack of preparation time is a leveller, unless the other team has the same lack of time.

(I can’t work this into my simple models, but if I had the time it would be one of a few ways to expand it: how many injuries each team had; how much time they’d each had to prepare; recent form; overseas travel, etc.)

From the past three seasons of data that I studied, these are true:

• Just having a Dense run of games (less time) will likely damage your PPG, on average, to a reasonable degree.

• Having a tough (Intense) run of games against better opposition will also likely damage your PPG, on average, to a reasonable degree.

• Having both will likely do even more damage.

So I’m really interested in the fact that both Man City and Arsenal will play truly elite teams in the quarters of the Champions League, and then either each other in the semis, or Real Madrid or Bayern Munich.

With Liverpool sitting 3rd in the rankings, these are four of the best six teams in Europe right now based on Club Elo Index. It’s almost like a mini Super League taking place between City, Arsenal, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich.

While Liverpool could collapse under the weight of their injuries – and any team can suddenly have a wobble – the only time the Reds have averaged less than 2.3ppg in the final ten league games since 2017/18 was when they’d won the league with a little less than ten games to go, and after the pandemic limbo.

Even including the nightmares of 2020/21 with no centre-backs (and various other injuries) and 2022/23 with no midfield (and various other injuries), the Reds went 2.3ppg (three times) or 2.7ppg (twice).

In other words, apart from the one time they didn’t need to (20+ points clear), it’s been six seasons of excellent final-10 stretches.

Dense and Intense

There are two types of harder runs: less time between games, and better quality opposition on average. This makes for a third, when the two combine.

On average, the best teams between 2021 and 2024 (Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal) dropped around 15% more points than normal in a combination of Dense/Intense fixtures.

Since the start of last season, Arsenal have won 24% fewer points in their five toughest runs of games; which isn’t to say 1.73 points per game is bad, but it’s almost a quarter fewer than their season averages.

While all the figures I use are across all competitions, I also weight the teams from toughest (1), to worst Premier League sides (8), and anything below that is a 10 (with European sides ranked on Elo quality).

Again, 1.73ppg is pretty good against a run of better-than-average teams, but it’s not title-winning form; or at least, not if others do better, or have easier games, and you are playing only tough and elite sides.

And these runs, while tougher than normal, will not only be against elite sides.

(But in the spring, you’ll face better Champions League opposition and better FA Cup opposition, if still in that competition.)

Below was Arsenal’s run of nine tough games in up to 18th February 2023, so from just over a year ago:

• Arsenal 0–0 Newcastle

• Oxford United 0–3 Arsenal

• Tottenham Hotspur 0–2 Arsenal

• Arsenal 3–2 Manchester United

• Manchester City 1–0 Arsenal

• Everton 1–0 Arsenal

• Arsenal 1–1 Brentford

• Arsenal 1–3 Manchester City

• Aston Villa 2–4 Arsenal

They took 1.67ppg, against their all-comps season average of 2.14.

Within that tough run, however, are Oxford, plus Everton (battling relegation) and Brentford (mid-table); while Aston Villa were nowhere near as good as they are now. Arsenal had a fairly healthy average of 5.4 days between each game.

They averaged 1.25ppg in the 3-5 day range in this run, and 2.00ppg in the six-or more-days sequence.

But the four games in the 3-5 day range were against Man City, Man City again, Aston Villa (then less good) and Newcastle (then more good).

But it also shows that if you have to play better teams in less time, you’ll underperform by a big margin; just as Man City, as an example, have not won at Anfield with a crowd present under Pep Guardiola, and the last time Arsenal left Anfield with a win was in September 2012. (Man United also no longer win at Anfield.)

Which isn’t to say that Liverpool have always been better than either City since 2016 or Arsenal since 2012, but even in your best form, there are some fixtures you might not be able to win; often, a draw seems most likely the best you’ll get.

In December 2023 I went back to the start of the 2021/22 season to look at the most Dense and Intense runs I could find for the major clubs, and at the time I was talking about how Newcastle’s Dense and Intense autumn (a first recent taste of the Champions League treadmill) led to a points collapse and an injury crisis, which led to an even greater points collapse.

The Champions League can be like running a midweek marathon, in between league games.

This is the key part, about having less time when playing similar-standard teams in run:

The Densest runs – more games in less time – sees even the best clubs dropping from an average of 2.13 points per game across all competitions to 1.90, which is an 11% drop when playing against teams who are, on average, as good as the overall season average.

So just having less recovery time hurts the best teams, to some degree. And 11% is not huge, but it’s enough when it’s tight.

Now, this peaks with the Champions League/FA Cup/Premier League mashup of the spring, but that’s why I always think the spring makes or breaks seasons, if teams haven’t already run away with the title.

And why, as I said before yesterday’s match, I would quite like Liverpool to not have to face an FA Cup semi-final against Man City or Chelsea, and thus, losing at Old Trafford would be a blessing based on the analysis of this piece, which was 90% written; unless, of course, it would turn out that the FA Cup was the only other thing, with the League Cup in the bag, Liverpool ended up having a chance of winning (as they lose in the Europa and lose games in the league). But you don’t know that at this stage; only with hindsight.

(Liverpool have the bonus of the Europa League meaning more rest and rotation is possible as it’s not elite teams and it’s not the priority competition, but injuries have mounted, too.)

With 1 being the hardest and 10 the easiest, I rate Arsenal’s remaining fixtures at an average of 2.62, which is essentially playing elite or top four sides most of the way.

This is almost identical to the 2.63 of Man City’s final eight games of last season.

In a season in which City took 2.63 points per game across all comps, they managed ‘only’ 2.13, a drop of 19%.

But they only needed to get a draw in Madrid in the first leg, and drawing at home to Brighton and losing to Brentford was because a relatively young and inexperienced Arsenal had fallen away and the title was back with City. (We won’t know how they’d have done had they had to win those games.)

Interestingly, Man City played both Bayern and Real Madrid in the latter rounds last season.

But the second half of Man City’s season last year overall was weirdly easy/tough/easy/tough; looking like a stripy sock on my colour-coded table, where red is the toughest and green is the easiest. A run of almost 20 games was far from daunting.

Five times after they played a super-tough game they had an easy Weekender.

(“Oh, I say you look so super!”)

I would call these green games ‘escape values’, or ‘pressure release points’.

Compare this to Arsenal’s run-in this season, with one tough game to be rearranged:

Arsenal are now a properly-good side, but this seems extra-tough, due to the Champions League; and this includes them getting past Bayern Munich.

(BTW, Newcastle were a ‘2’ when I devised the scoring, and now they’d likely be a 3 or a 4; Chelsea are having a bad season too. But they both have lots of good players, and still have a ‘big game’ feel when you face them, having reached a League Cup final and now an FA Cup semi. Chelsea’s squad still cost a fortune, so I’m keeping them at a ‘2’ for now. Similarly, Aston Villa had moved into the top 10 on the Elo Rankings, but are down to 13th, behind Spurs. Liverpool fell to 4th after defeat yesterday.)

Contrast that to this run for Liverpool, with no ‘1’s left to face all season, unless they meet Xabi Alonso’s Bayern Leverkusen in the final. (After this run, the Reds face some 2s and 3s, but have other easier games to follow; that said, Everton are relegation candidates but a derby is intense in its own way.)

Looking at the runs which are both Dense and Intense, it’s a 15.2% drop-off for the three current title challenges in the past three seasons (two seasons in Arsenal’s case): 1.89ppg down from 2.23.

That’s 10 such runs, at an average of nine games per run.

PPG during run vs same club’s all-season PPG

• Man City to 15 Feb 2023 – – 2.14 – – 2.33

• Liverpool to 14 May 2022 – – 2.33 – – 2.42

• Man City to 10 Jun 2023 – – 2.13 – – 2.28

• Man City to 4 May 2022 – – 1.89 – – 2.28

• Liverpool to 9 Apr 2023 – – 1.20 – – 1.71

• Arsenal to 14 May 2023 – – 1.29 – – 2.14

• Liverpool to 2 Jan 2022 – – 1.71 – – 2.42

• Arsenal to 4 Nov 2023 – – 2.17 – – 2.28

• Arsenal to 18 Feb 2023 – – 1.67 – – 2.14

• Man City to 15 Feb 2023 – – 2.15 – – 2.33

Slug!

As a Liverpool fan, I ideally wanted Man City and Arsenal to slug it out with each other in the quarters, albeit that’s still on the cards in the semis; but first they face Real Madrid (City) and Bayern (Arsenal), with Bayern, for all their struggles, having the best xG Difference I’ve seen in years.

Most excellent clubs have an xG Difference of around +1 per game; Bayern are close to +2, so they are incredibly dangerous, just a little bit inconsistent (which has cost Champions League-winning Thomas Tuchel his job).

I noted in the winter that, in contrast to last season, City weren’t beating the better sides this season, and since then, aside from Man United (and that’s questionable right now given their wild inconsistency), they didn’t beat Chelsea at home, and at Anfield were outplayed in a draw just over a week ago that should have been a defat, had the officials done their job.

(Look at how many fouls and yellow cards were given for follow-throughs yesterday, even if winning the ball more cleanly and not studding someone in the chest. But hey ho, entertainment before integrity.)

My point was always that City, even in top form, were unlikely to go on a 15-game winning streak in the way people were saying they would, and in the league it’s two draws in the last five. Unbeaten runs are different, but they can include a lot of dropped-points draws.

That’s why the table is tight.

Which isn’t to say you can’t win the league by not beating the better sides (Liverpool are also rarely beating the better sides, albeit game-changing Big Decisions have gone against them at Spurs and Arsenal, and at home to Arsenal and Man City, and now in the FA Cup at Man United with Bruno Fernandes escaping the most obvious second yellow you’ll ever see), but that these great winning streaks are harder.

And City were playing catch-up.

Add colossal Champions League encounters (quarters and semis), and that’s four games within the season that could impact the league results before and after, for both City and Arsenal. They are emotionally exhausting, and sometimes exhilarating, which can be problematic too (the comedown can be an issue).

And Liverpool with Atalanta, by contrast, face a team 30-or-so points off the pace in Serie A.

It won’t be easy as Italian teams are rarely mugs, but it’s a level of opposition I’d rate as a “3”, with Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City, Real Madrid and Bayern all ‘1’s.

City’s run-in is tougher than Liverpool’s, and just got tougher with another rearranged game and Chelsea in the cup; but Arsenal’s is brutal.

With the exception of Luton, and ‘mid-table’ but could-be-difficult sides Bournemouth and Wolves, Arsenal’s remaining games, including tough away trips, are worth another look:

• Man City

• Brighton

• Bayern Munich

• Aston Villa

• Bayern Munich

• Tottenham Hotspur

• Man City/Real Madrid?

• Man City/Real Madrid?

• Manchester United

• Chelsea

As such, if Arsenal do win the league, they’ll have my full respect.

I had doubts about them earlier in the season, but with a second strong season, even if they were to finish empty-handed, shows a ‘proper’ team, and not a flash-in-the-pan.

I’ve said since my old days as the columnist for the official Liverpool website in the 2000s that you need to finish 2nd (or joint 2nd on points) to go on to win the league, since Man United in 1992, Chelsea in 2004, Arsenal in 1997 laid the basecamp, and which followed with Man City in 2011 and eventually Liverpool in 2019, with Leicester the 5,000-1 aberration in between who came from nowhere.

(Even Leeds in 1991, with whom I turned down a trial while playing university football as I knew I didn’t have the bottle for it, would finish 4th in their first season back in the top flight, before winning it in 1992.)

But of course, finishing 2nd is an important sign of consistency over a league season, but not a guarantee to future success; just that it’s increasingly hard to come from nowhere, unless it’s a low-points season where the main clubs are in transition or chaos.

If Liverpool and Man City were off the pace, Arsenal would be champions. But so far, they’re not.

**The final part of this article, and comments, are for paying TTT Main Hub subscribers only.**