FREE READ: De Zerbi, The Only Main Alternative To Alonso for Liverpool?

Lijnders, Frank, Postecoglou and others assessed, and Steidten as DoF?

There’s talk that only once Jürgen Klopp’s announcement to leave was made public did the Reds’ search begin.

This makes no sense, as I said at the time. Who sits around for three months waiting?

Public approaches or leaked approaches would be problematic, particularly when Klopp was, as far as we all knew, staying for years. To seek a new manager behind his back (as we didn’t know he was leaving) would have led to mutiny.

But the process would surely have begun in November. To even wait a day would be wasting time.

Last summer saw some weird transfer behaviour from Liverpool, but I find it impossible to believe people as sharp as FSG and Will Spearman would have just done nothing for three months.

It doesn’t mean everything could easily be sewn up by January, but I think it’s also highly possible, and is being kept under wraps; pre-agreements in place. (But again, I’m just guessing.)

Making Klopp’s departure public made sense, in terms of giving the players and fans time to adjust, and either to then make approaches, or to be in the clear if previous approaches leaked.

November Spawned a Monster*

(* Ah, the days when Morrissey was ace.)

Then, I thought again about Xabi Alonso’s position right now, and how he might not have time (or want to be distracted) to negotiate.

I still see Alonso as the most likely manager, and will briefly reiterate why, but the managerial hunt would have begun in November.

However, this was only a year into Alonso’s career in Germany, that lacked the data accrued since November.

(That said, it’s just seven more games, including the weekend victory; but obviously also including the statement victory over Bayern Munich, that added a lot of weight to his case, and it was before Leverkusen had a massive lead of eight points.)

There’s always the chance that Alonso felt – or still feels – it’s too soon to leave Leverkusen, even if a job like Liverpool comes up much more rarely than a job like Bayern (eight managers since Klopp joined Liverpool, and looking like a ninth soon) or Real Madrid.

As I said last week, you can go to Bayern almost any season you want. Sometimes you get a chance twice in a season. (And as I’ve noted before, they’re a political club who seem a nightmare to work for.)

Now, if the Reds began the process in November (and let’s say took maybe a month to draw up lists and investigate data, histories, personalities, etc.), an ideal time to talk to any overseas managers would be their proper winter breaks.

As of 17 games, the halfway point in the Bundesliga, Bayer Leverkusen had won 14 and drawn three in the league, and won all six Europa League games. Called the ‘winter champions’ in Germany, this year it was Leverkusen.

So Alonso was making waves by December, and indeed, back in November.

The winter break started after 16 games (mid-December), so that’s 13 wins and three draws in the league, and nine out of nine in the cups.

The only teams Leverkusen had failed to beat were Bayern away (2-2, but where they were excellent by all accounts), Borussia Dortmund at home (1-1), and away at high-flying VfB Stuttgart. (Whose manager, Sebastian Hoeneß, also looks very promising, but maybe falls short in some areas.)

Around the time Klopp announced that he would be stepping down, Alonso’s Leverkusen equalled the record for the best start to a Bundesliga season, set by Pep Guardiola's megabucks Bayern Munich. Leverkusen then won their next game.

So by the winter break, in all competitions, it was P25, W22, D3, L0.

That’s a pretty good sample size on the back of last season’s major improvement (from a ‘false’ but still worrying 2nd bottom when he took over in October 2022 up to 6th, and a Europa League semi-final), too.

And while 50-60 games isn’t a lot at the elite level, Liverpool, as I noted before, spent what now equates to £100m on a goalkeeper (the most important position, as you can only field one of them) on Alisson, and had him lined up after less than one season in goal for Roma (after a season on the bench). And again, Alonso managed for three years in the Spanish league pyramid, as a grounding.

So if Liverpool were to have decided upon Alonso a month into the process, they then had almost a month to speak to him away from the madness of the game-every-three-days schedule.

Not that Alonso would have had his feet up for the 3-4 weeks, but there would at least be a window, unlike for the rest of this season. He wouldn’t have been preparing for a game in a couple of days’ time.

Whether he or Leverkusen would want to publicly acknowledge that talks happened, or even an agreement was reach, is another matter.

If Alonso has a release clause, Leverkusen need not even know of the talks.

The first thing any club in football does is speak to the player or manager privately, through backchannels, to gauge interest – as there’s no point wasting time and money on a massive deal otherwise.

Especially as these days, transfers and appointments are celebrated like trophies, and so you don’t want the public humiliation; maybe Liverpool fell short here with Moises Caicedo, albeit so far there’s only one winner there. (Maybe Caicedo led Liverpool on to improve his terms with Chelsea.)

Liverpool also lost out on Jude Bellingham, but clearly had good vibes that he was willing to join; ultimately, Real Madrid are that rare thing: a bigger club, and could offer Champions League football and massive wages.

The same happened with Aurélien Tchouaméni, and fair enough; just as Luis Díaz was happy to join Spurs until Liverpool came along. That’s how the food chain works.

(And everyone does this. It used to be called tapping-up, but now it’s just logical enquiries and due diligence. Fifth-tier sides tap-up players at six-tier sides.)

Since the midway point, Leverkusen have drawn only one game (away at Borussia Mönchengladbach where they had 30+ shots and +3 xG against virtually nothing at the other end). They also beat high-flying VfB Stuttgart again, in the cup, to make it 10 from 10 away from the league.

Also, when I hear that Leverkusen are “unbeaten” in 32 games, it doesn’t do it justice; to win 28 of those is insane.

That’s an 87.5% win rate.

By contrast, Arsenal’s Invincibles team won only 68.4% of their league games that season (26 of 38), and lost six times in the cups, including twice to ... Middlesbrough, as well as a draw against Rotherham.

Add the cup games for that season, and it falls to 63.8% won (Liverpool won 73.02% of their games in 2021/22).

And while win rates are generally higher at the top end these days, Leverkusen are not recent champions or a club the size of Arsenal in 2003/04 or Liverpool in 2021/22.

None of which is to take away from the Gunners’ achievement, that was huge at the time; just to differentiate “unbeaten” from “unbeaten and won nearly every game”.

After all, you could conceivably draw 38 games and get relegated. Unbeaten records are good; winning games is better.

Roberto De Zerbi

Part of Jürgen Klopp perhaps feeling old – and I know how he feels – and certainly his team looking old a year ago, was in no small part due to a few (chastening) chasings handed out by Roberto De Zerbi’s Brighton.

Having had zero doubts during the leaner times under Klopp, including his first two years (when his record remained the same as Brendan Rodgers’), it was the first time I vaguely started to question Klopp, at least in terms of an old and common managerial failing: holding onto too many older players for too long, after all the battles in the trenches with them.

You want a manager to have fierce loyalty to his players, but it reached a tipping point a year ago. It’s very difficult to ship everyone out before it gets to that stage, and maybe only Bob Paisley got that perfect, as the mumbling savant in cardigan and slippers.

De Zerbi certainly impressed Klopp; he impressed us all.

But unlike Leverkusen, Brighton haven’t moved forwards this season; they’ve gone backwards a bit, due to the weight of games, and maybe opponents wising up to some degree (you can’t retain the shock of the new).

That said, Brighton are still in the top half of the table (and won yesterday, after I started writing this piece), and this was always likely to be a difficult season. Leverkusen had finished 3rd in 2021/22, and 6th the season before, so they could be said to be a bigger club than Brighton.

I find it hard to believe that the club won’t have asked for Klopp’s opinions on his successor, even if he obviously won’t choose that person.

Klopp’s recent comments about Alonso being the standout young manager may mean nothing, bar him answering questions in as polite and honest a way as possible.

(See evidence: van Dijk, Virgil, January 2024: “Do you know where you’ll be in two years’ time?”; van Dijk, nearly 33 and with 18 months left on his contract: “No”. Headlines: “van Dijk Says He May Leave Liverpool! The Exodus Begins!”)

I’d have thought Klopp would naturally recommend Pep Lijnders, but my sense is that Lijnders increased role in transfers wasn’t as welcome throughout the club – losing two directors of football and a head of analysis in part of transfer tensions – as his elite coaching.

As I said in 2020 through to 2022, Lijnders played a key role (albeit I disliked his book cover in 2022, having just a picture of himself, when I think a team photo would have been more humble, given it was about the team’s intensity.)

He may also be considered not ready/proven at leading a club, and it may be that the club wants a fresh approach.

The departure of virtually the entire coaching staff and the desire for Lijnders to move on to management (understandably) continues to make me think he’s excluded, even if he’s still about 4th choice in the betting.

I just don’t see the club risking letting someone they see as the next manager negotiating a move to another club if he’s in the running, especially as he is likely to keep some of the staff if Klopp takes a sabbatical.

If he was the man, with the same staff (bar Klopp), then that would mean a smooth transition, and no need to announce everyone is leaving. (Not even for Klopp to announce his departure ahead of time, albeit it may still leak.)

Unless there had genuinely been no work on who to appoint – and Lijnders will duly be invited to interview. But that doesn’t seem likely.

I’d have no issue with Lijnders being appointed if the club thought him suitable, but it just seems to have gone away from a succession plan.

Thorn In Klopp’s Side*

(* Almost another Morrissey reference possible there, back from when he was good.)

At the point of deciding to step down in November, Klopp would have known much more about De Zerbi the manager, than Alonso the manager.

The Italian’s first game in the Premier League was at Anfield, racing into a 2-0 lead and having various other chances; four big chances in the first 17 minutes, I believe.

It ended 3-3; the reverse fixture 3-0 to the Seagulls; the FA Cup game 2-1 to the south coast side; then a 2-2 draw there this season, for the third visit to the AMEX in nine months. De Zerbi’s Brighton have scored 10 against Liverpool, winning two and drawing two. (Three of those games were obviously against a less-good Liverpool team, and three of them were at home.)

The gloss has gone off De Zerbi a bit in his difficult second season, with the sophomore slump fairly natural given the extra demands.

By late November 2023, Brighton were still 7th in the Premier League, but had been 3rd after six games, with five wins. They were flying.

Then the Europa League kicked in, and their league form became an absolutely inconsistent mix of no consecutive wins and a lot of draws and defeats; and in total, just four league wins from the next 18 games. (Now five from the last 19.)

This is what I would have predicted, although they again impressed in one of those draws, against visiting Liverpool.

Brighton excelled in the Europa League, in a tough group. But then came home from Thursday night games to mostly drop league points. That’s the hard balance to strike. Injuries start to rack up, and they’ve suffered from quite a few.

Brighton don’t have a big, expensive squad, albeit they do have a lot of players. And like Liverpool, a lot of impressive young players.

Liverpool have a good relationship with Brighton, as seen in players going there (and incredibly speaking highly of De Zerbi); and when the Reds tried to buy Moises Caicedo, Brighton praising the way the club handled it, in contrast to Chelsea’s frequent smashes and grabs.

Indeed, if Liverpool haven’t sorted a replacement for Klopp and want to do so before the end of the season, Brighton would be far easier to deal with; they always plan to lose their managers and players, after all.

De Zerbi has at least had two seasons of management in Europe, albeit each was partial; he left Shakhtar Donetsk early due to the war, and this season has seen Brighton play only six games, naturally.

He hasn’t conclusively shown that he can handle the league and Europe at the same time, but he hasn’t had much chance, and Brighton would not have the level of ‘reserves’ that Liverpool do.

Even so, De Zerbi makes lots of changes, and I think that’s generally helpful in managing a season on multiple fronts, with injuries included in the changes, and rotation to help minimise further injuries.

Alonso’s XIs seem more settled, but the German league is four fewer games per season (and only one domestic cup), and less intense overall. Of course, it’s also the league that most influenced the Premier League over the past decade.

De Zerbi knows our league, improves players, puts trust in young players, and plays a transformative brand of football that had me watching Brighton in the second half of last season as much as I could.

He also had outsized success in Italy.

“Under his tenure, Sassuolo were praised for their footballing style coupled with overachieving results, which led the small Emilia based club to two consecutive eighth place spots in the Italian top flight, losing a UEFA Conference League qualification place to Roma only on goal difference at the end of the 2020–21 Serie A season.” (Wikipedia)

Credibility with players is a key issue (and another reason why I think Alonso is the best bet), especially when moving up from smaller clubs, but De Zerbi will be well respected at Liverpool too; the players know how hard his teams are to play against, and both Adam Lallana and James Milner have passed on their huge respect for the manager.

I worry that he’s a bit too fiery, but I only get snapshots, from a distance. Fiery confidence is great, but it has to be controlled, like Klopp managers to do. He’s far from dull, that’s for sure.

Indeed, Jamie Carragher made a good point on the RedMen TV when talking about how managers now need to control their emotions when it comes to decision-making, even if they can be passionate on the sidelines.

Klopp is always very calm and composed away from the touchline, as Carragher points out; rational, analytical.

Carragher was talking about Alonso, but I’d hope that, if De Zerbi were to be the new manager, he’d have that same skill of dispassionate decision-making, even if emotional during matches.

De Zerbi has experience of different countries and different leagues, as a player and manager, and has years of building up in the lower leagues in Italy.

I’ve seen it said that Alonso was not managing in senior football with Real Sociedad B, but that ignores the Spanish system. Primera Federación is the third tier, the same level as in Italy where De Zerbi first started to make a minor name for himself with Foggia (91 games, 47 won and only 19 lost).

But this was five years before Alonso started his managerial career in the Spanish third tier. However, Alonso obviously has an insane playing CV that virtually no one can match, as discussed in length before. If you’re a student of the game, as he was, you can learn so much.

I also think that waiting to appoint a Director of Football first is not necessary, as Liverpool didn’t have one when Ian Graham made the case for Jürgen Klopp in 2015, at which point Michael Edwards was not as senior as he became.

I think most modern collegiate, DoFs would work with managers of the quality and vision of Alonso and De Zerbi.

Tim Steidten had an important role at Leverkusen before moving to West Ham last summer, where he’s bumped into Moyes’ dithering and penchant for British workhorses.

“I've heard that I am supposed to be on the list at Liverpool," said Steidten to Sky Sports Deutschland. "It is one of the biggest clubs in the world, so it's an honour. But so far nobody from Liverpool has contacted me.

“I generally feel very comfortable at West Ham. I quickly realised how intense this league is. Accordingly, we signed the right players in the last transfer windows. The squad is strong, so we can achieve our goals.”

So, basically, he’s “generally” happy (a ringing endorsement, like saying “I generally take this woman to be my wife” at the alter), and points out he now knows the league.

Liverpool did not go for proven, big-name Directors of Football in Michael Edwards and Julian Ward, while Jörg Schmadtke was appointed simply to work with Klopp.

To wait to get the right Director of Football is not as logical if it means missing out on the best managers. You could certainly appoint Steidten before or after a manager, and Alonso or De Zerbi before or after a Director of Football.

The Best Teams in the Big Four Leagues, and the Standout Managers

For this final section I thought I’d compare xG Difference (xG for minus xG against) with possession, as to me, being able to control games is increasingly vital, in contrast to 2005-2015, where possession generally seemed to lose value.

The issue with xG difference is that it can be skewed by sendings off (Liverpool have had five), especially early in games. It can be skewed by teams easing off. Meanwhile Liverpool have also started games slowly this season, before going mental after the break; and racked up seven times as many actual goals in the last 15 minutes as in the first 15 minutes.

It can also be skewed by who you’ve played, and where; so Arsenal haven’t gone to City yet, or Spurs (derby), Man United and Brighton. Plus, as with Man City, playing in the later rounds of the Champions League can easily sap Premier League performance.

Then, there’s racking up big xG against minnows but then choking in the clutch moments – that would sum up Bayern Munich lately.

But to me, if you don’t mix a positive xG difference with a possession rate close to, or above, 60%, you’re not the right manager for Liverpool.

No one with over 60% possession as a negative xG difference, and on average the xG difference per game when having 60% possession is over +1.0.

You also have to weight xG difference for the size of club and its budget, which I could do in the Premier League with our £XI data, but can’t easily do for the other three leagues. But we generally know who spends big and who doesn’t, whether it’s transfers and/or wages.

And for Brighton, they ranked in the relegation zone for £XI, at an average football inflation-adjusted cost of £67.3m per game (as of the halfway point), with only Luton and Sheffield United fielding cheaper teams.

That they get so many cheap gems is not solely down to De Zerbi, but he makes them shine on the pitch.

As well as excelling in the Europa League, Brighton are a “better side” in the league than both Man United and Spurs (neither still in Europe), by some distance, irrespective of budget.

Then add in spending, and you’d say what Brighton are doing is even more impressive.

Here’s the scatterplot, to which I’ve added some names and data, highlighted a few teams, and created The Golden Circle, which is for teams who score highly on both metrics.

The nearer to the top right of the chart, the better, in terms of dominating the ball and dominating xG. Hence, The Golden Circle (also one of my favourite places on Earth).

I also then drew a random dotted line that seemed to separate the teams into good and not so good.

I noted a few weeks ago that Juventus were weird in having such low possession, albeit equally weirdly, Serie A has only one high-possession team (above 58%), in Napoli.

Since I noted that Juventus having less than 50% possession seemed unsustainable at the top of the table, they’ve taken just two from 12 points.

I don’t even watch Italian football; it just seemed too reactive to sustain a title challenge. In that time they’ve gone from top to nine points adrift.

Leaders and champions Inter are the only team with possession below 58% to score very highly on xG difference; they rank 2nd, with +1.35, with possession at 55.8%.

So they still dominate, but not in the 60:40 method common with elite clubs. As such, no successful team in the four leagues has under c.56% possession. (Las Palmas are the only high-possession team with a really poor xG difference, but I imagine their budget is tiny, and they’re top half of the table.)

Man United, who were bossed in possession by Luton, seem far too reactive.

They have two exceptional young attackers with pace and skill, in Rasmus Højlund and Alejandro Garnacho (and a gem in Kobbie Mainoo), but a lot of slow giants, fading forces, overpaid wasters, and too many who’d fail the Liverpool ‘dickhead’ test, which leads to a bad dressing room.

And to play purely counterattacking football in 2024 with the richest (uninflated) squad in football history according to the CIES is very weird, given that Xabi Alonso and Roberto De Zerbi have transformed their teams into high possession, positive xG difference teams in less time, as has Sebastian Hoeneß at Stuttgart.

I was also shocked at how terrible Spurs’ xG difference was, as good as they can be at attacking. I mean, I keep hearing how amazing they are!

I still found it absolutely laughable that Gary Neville said they’d finish above Liverpool a few weeks ago, “once all their players were fit and back”; those players are back, and Liverpool now have 10 injuries, yet Liverpool are now 10 points clear of Spurs.

Spurs are not (yet) a very good side, and it’s a reason to rule out Liverpool fan Ange Postecoglou, who should also be ruled out as he’s only just joined Spurs and it’s bad form to leave so soon. I think he will improve them, but the numbers show a very ordinary team, albeit far more enjoyable to watch than Death By Conte.

I noted several times back in the autumn when everyone was going mad over Spurs after 8/9/10 games (when the injuries then hit) that, aside from beating nine-man and disallowed-goal Liverpool, they’d played Brentford (draw), Man United (a win at home), got a very good point at Arsenal, but otherwise faced Bournemouth (bad start under new boss), Burnley (promoted), Sheffield United (promoted), Luton Town (promoted), Fulham and Crystal Palace.

You can’t blame them for beating what’s in front of them, but it’s also not indicative of quality, which is what I showed via a Performance Ratings Index after MW8 and MW9, when I predicted them to fall away to some degree (weirdly, that model said they were mid-table, as does their xG PTS, but I think they’re better than that; just not elite).

I think Neville mistook the favourable fixtures as a sign of title-challenging quality, in what is, from him, increasingly amateurish punditry (like him screaming “I just don’t like it! Does my head in! I can’t get used to it!” when teams pass at back to draw on a press, as if he’s stuck in 1999. Find someone who understands modern football please, and I say this as someone older than the bloke).

Neville used to be elite as a pundit – I enjoyed his insights – but anyone away from the game too long risks getting stuck in “my day” mode. (Plus, he spends too much time on Twitter/X and it leads to sloppy thinking to appease the masses, and dulls the senses. But enough about that one – ‘ee’s mad, ‘im!)

Spurs seem incredibly positive, but naive. Man United seem incredibly expensive, but passive and reactive.

Top sport is increasingly about risk/reward; skewing towards risk all the time. But it’s no good if you can’t get the balance right.

Teams who play very positively and aggressively tend to stick with methods that can fail badly and look silly (passing out from the back, or in cricket, reverse ramps) but where the mindset is that if you don’t keep taking the risks, they won’t ever pay off.

By contrast, Brentford’s style of play already concerned me, and all I see Thomas Frank as doing is the Underdog Fight (Moyes, Allardyce, Hodgson, et al), rather than anything more progressive.

Percentages, low-risk, long-balls, long throws. Nah,

They were horrible to watch against Liverpool, trying to win free-kicks with dives to launch the ball. No thanks. (Liverpool, kicked all over the park, were awarded a scarcely believable four free-kicks all game, to Brentford’s ludicrous 18!)

Brentford’s xG difference is not much worse than Brighton’s – Brentford are effective at what they do (as were Wimbledon in the 1980s and Bolton in the 2000s) – but Brighton are also juggling Europe, and Brighton can control games; while Brighton last season were miles better than any team under Frank, ever.

If you can’t control games, I don’t see how you get to the top; and Brighton, Leverkusen and Stuttgart have shown that you can totally control games on a smaller budget.

The 11 teams in The Golden Circle are the ones likely to win leagues; and Brighton are as close to Chelsea in joining this sweet spot, on about 1/10th of the budget of Chelsea (with most of Chelsea’s squad and managers coming from Brighton, it seems).

Sebastian Hoeneß is the one unheralded manager in The Golden Circle, and seems like someone who could step up to a job that is not as demanding as Liverpool (maybe Leverkusen could replace Alonso with Hoeneß? Or he could follow De Zerbi at Brighton?).

To get into The Golden Circle or close to it on a lower budget suggests ideas that scale up; to be reactive or like Brentford does not.

So, to me, controlling games, having a positive xG difference and doing so without the luxury of the biggest budget, are the quantifiable measures, while things like charisma, aura, “fit”, collegiate approach, humility, ability to handle pressure, and other qualities are less tangible, but important all the same.

If Liverpool did make a decision back in November or December – and approach someone in December or January – it’s hard to see past Alonso and De Zerbi, unless looking to Rúben Amorim at Sporting, in the weaker Portuguese league.

I still hope it’s Alonso, but if you’d asked me 9-10 months ago, I’d have said De Zerbi, whose football I watched as much as I could.

Back in November? I’d have said either.