Gary Neville is a Midwit With His Spurious Comparisons About Liverpool

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“He said we’d finish outside the top six?”

For an English footballer, Gary Neville was always quite bright; but it’s a low bar.

He was also a breath of fresh air (even for this Liverpool fan) on Sky straight out of the game over a decade ago; now, however many years later, he comes across as a midwit, and a troll.

Maybe he’s just part of the big social media stupefying machine now, that makes people idiotic by the very nature of the interbreeding of very bad ideas via high emotion and reactivity, and which turns almost all high-profile accounts into extremist trolls in the process, taking ever more outlandish positions (also tied in with clickbait). Lots of once-smart people are now frothing lunatics.

Plus, being a football generalist often means you know very little about everything, and to me, that’s now Neville. (And the more he went down the ‘banter’ path, the more he threw away his credibility.)

I genuinely don’t care too much what Neville thinks about Liverpool, but obviously other people do.

I also don’t mind Liverpool being written off in many ways (more fool those people), but at the same time, it annoys me when it’s done out of ignorance.

I don’t know if Liverpool will finish 1st or 6th, depending on any further buys (which I expect); who stays fit; how rival teams perform, and who stays fit for them (see Bobb, Oscar); who referees the games (albeit I’m trying to chill about that, and the PGMOL may make some helpful changes); and various other vital variables that cannot even be guessed at at this juncture.

(Edit: you can add then number of stupid 12:30 kickoff times, and things like going away to an ‘up for it’ promoted side before they run out of steam in October, to the list of factors that go into a season.)

Neville told a football podcast:

“My surprise is Liverpool won't finish in the top six. Is there a risk with what Klopp got out of that group last season, is there a risk that Liverpool just purely because of what happened with other clubs where managers of that ilk, is there a risk they could tank?”

There are various things here, assuming that he wasn’t taken massively out of context in the excerpt I read (and anything is possible with the clickbait media these days).

Klopp got the most out of these very players last season?

Really?

That’s funny, as many (most?) of them were out for chunks or all of the season!

Klopp didn’t get the best out of Diogo Jota, Alisson, Mo Salah, Dominic Szoboszlai, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ibrahima Konaté, Stefan Bajcetic, Andy Robertson, Conor Bradley, Ben Doak, Ryan Gravenberch and of course the now departed, Joël Matip and Thiago Alcantara ‘last season’, as they all had terrible injury issues, from 2-3 months to the whole season.

(Luis Díaz merely had his family kidnapped for over a month, and played on pure adrenaline for a while, before running out of zest.)

Equally, some of them were out on loan. And certainly not many of them were run to the point where they had nothing left in the tank, as almost no one played the complete season, while a lot of the international players sat on the bench this summer. (But which didn’t help Slot with preseason.)

Klopp got the best out of Caoimhín Kelleher, Conor Bradley (between the injuries), Bobby Clark, Jarell Quansah, Wataru Endō, James McConnell and others who, if they were all the backbone of the first XI this season (but at the age they were last season, when inexperienced or new to the league), you would naturally expect Liverpool to finish outside the top six.

(Clark has been sold, others will go on loan. Any young player sold can be bought back within a certain time period as per club contract policy.)

Predictions are kinda silly, before we know half the context. But what we do know suggests Liverpool could be title contenders, and should finish in the top four; but there may be lots of strong teams this season.

(Meanwhile, Aston Villa’s great season now takes them into Newcastle territory 2023: start playing in the Champions League, and see how that goes when you’re not used to it.)

Part of the reason Arne Slot was appointed was his astonishing record at keeping players fit, despite high-intensity football, that manages to keep it tight at the back and create a ton of xG.

He’s not some over-promoted middling manager; he’s the next wave of the best coaches in the world. He’s cutting edge, not some dull blade.

Slot could still be a lesser manager than Klopp, but have an advantage just by keeping about £500m of talent fit.

In truth, I think Slot is now entering the “better than late Klopp” phase, as late Klopp was tired, and managers tend to run out of energy and ideas, which is why most of the major trophies they win are within a 5-10 year period. (After which, maybe they still win minor ones.) And even Pep Lijnders had done six years, and was maybe getting stale.

Last season was also hugely emotionally draining from January onwards (not to mention the Díaz dramas, on and off the pitch), and maybe by the spring Liverpool hit the wall. Klopp going was a gut-blow to us all, even if it may prove to be 100% the right time.

Klopp was the best Liverpool manager since Bob Paisley, and it’s hard to separate Paisley, Bill Shankly and Klopp because of the different nature of their achievements. They are the three standout greats. (Kenny Dalglish misses out due to no European football in the late ‘80s and Rafa Benítez didn’t quite at the league title, but his 2008/09 side had one of the all-time great spines, and had to endure proper, clueless money-draining cowboys as owners in Gillett and Hicks.)

Equally, not having a demonstrative teutonic manager who has upset just about every member of the PGMOL might lead to fewer dodgy decisions, certainly when every 50-50 (or 60-40) goes against you, if the ref absolutely loathes your guts. According to a neutral source, Liverpool had the most incorrect VAR decisions go against them last season, too. Maybe Slot won’t have that to deal with?

Then, the idea that replacing successful managers is impossible; something Paisley made light of after 1974, when the manager seemed truly irreplaceable.

But surely, it’s like replacing a great player: you get good replacements and bad ones, and it’s about doing your homework.

If anything, Slot’s football is a bit more ultra-modern than Klopp’s, which is part of the natural cycle of football and how the very best gradually become also-rans. (Ferguson kept that at bay by replacing his assistants every five years or so, and they did all the work; his ideas since retiring, including appointing Moyes, show that he was actually quite out of touch.)

Few are realising that Slot and his staff spent a month studiously studying the methods of Klopp and Pep Lijnders – via videos of the games and myriad training sessions – took what they liked, and will tweak things to their own slightly newer and inventive ways.

Those players still have all that Kloppian experience and knowledge, but so many are aged 18-23 (and several were new to the club or the team) that even if Roy Hodgson was brought out of retirement, he’d still not manage to stop Harvey Elliott, Curtis Jones, Quansah, Bradley, Ryan Gravenberch, Dominic Szoboszlai, Kelleher, Doak, Bajcetic, Trey Nyoni and others improving – simply by their gaining experience, muscle, stamina, and sprint speed, allied to continued decision-making developments in the male brain until the age of 25.

(Which can all be multiplied by the shared time together increasing, as good teams need time and testing experience, to bond and to improve.)

Again, replacing Klopp with someone who plays anti-football or low-possession football would perhaps take things backwards; but Slot is one of the managers that can increase what was already ultra-possession (average of 60%+ under Klopp), while also not sacrificing quality at both ends.

The team may have slightly fewer shots (certainly fewer silly speculative ones), but will likely give up less at the back, and still be thrilling to watch.

Slot is an unknown quantity in England, but just because he’s bald and Dutch, he’s not another Erik ten Hag, whose success was based on silver-spoon opportunities by association (once he worked under Pep Guardiola he got all the advantages), whereas Slot came up the hard way, and did it on a few lower budget by improving players. Slot isn’t going to go and ask for £80m to be spent on the next Antony.

To me (based on seeing far less than United fans will), ten Hag seems dull and defensive as a character, but also with a weird, hollow braggadocio; a bit like Brendan Rodgers. He seems a bit ‘off’.

Erik ten Hag talks about winning trophies being what he does, but domestic trophies only count for big clubs if they’re also doing extremely well in the league or the Champions League. Even in 2008 it couldn’t save Juande Ramos, and that was just at Spurs. If you win the FA Cup but lose 20 games in the season, you are not a good team, but a lucky team. The modern game isn’t about domestic cups.

What Klopp did with the kids last season in the League Cup was ultra-special for that very reason – the kids gave it the mark of ‘not just another big club winning a domestic cup’. The Reds also kept a title challenge going until late in the season, as well as two other cup runs, but the injuries took their toll.

And of course, everything had taken its toll on Klopp; this was, it became clear, not 2015-2022 Klopp (or even the 2010-2022 Klopp), but the one who was worn down to the point where he may never manager again. He’d given his all, and boy did we get the benefits. But last season was not peak Klopp, albeit the way he brought through young players was up there with his best achievements.

He got a huge last gasp out of the side at Wembley, but by then the senior players were unsettled by the news, or injured.

Again, the body of work and the context is what counts; not a trophy after five games.

By contrast, Man United’s goal difference and xG Difference (which I think ranked 15th) showed a really poor side, that could win some games with talent at both ends. Again, they could (should!) be better this season, especially if they too avoid as many injuries. They continue to spend big, whereas Liverpool have spent years spending smart.

(Scouting 608 full-backs gets you Aaron Wan-Bissaka for £50m who goes to West Ham for £15m. That said, I do rate Rasmus Højlund, even if he hasn’t quite clicked, and could see the appeal of Kobbie Mainoo within about five minutes of his debut. They have a lot of good young players too.)

But the idea that replacing an elite manager is somehow doomed to failure because of two examples (and in Wenger’s case, the club had been drifting for many years on the back of a stadium rebuild and him keeping the same coaching staff), seems weird; not least as it ignores a lot of other examples.

Also, no one seems to acknowledge, even 11 years on, that David Moyes was about as bad a big club manager as was possible, with a distinctly mid-level mindset and tactical approach that was all about trying not to lose. (Again, Hodgsonesque, and I called it at the time.)

Again, you think Moyes was a positive manager?

December 2023: “In 72 previous Premier League away matches as a manager against Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United, Moyes had not won once. Not a single victory.”

He finally got that win, after TWENTY ONE YEARS. And that includes his year as Man United boss going away to Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea, who should have been weaker than the reigning champions he was in charge of.

Moyes, like Roy Hodgson, was your go-to man for mid-table solidity, and maybe he might one day finally win a trophy – not for the best European teams, nor the trophy for the good European teams, but the trophy for the upper mid-table European teams, once they invented such a thing. (I look forward to the Europa Relegation League, the Europa 4th-Tier League, and so on.)

So why even mention Moyes replacing Ferguson, when it’s like replacing Taylor Swift with Rachael ‘Raygun’ Gunn. (Sorry to take the piss, but if you put yourself out there and do kangaroo jumps at the Olympics, more fool you.)

Even Unai Emery is a “Europa League” manager, and certainly when he replaced Arsenal he took their style in a more negative direction, just like Moyes. Emery, while he’s improved, was out of his depth in 2018.

He’s still not a “big club” manager in terms of league titles and Champions Leagues. Emery is an underdog manager who doesn’t win league titles, but makes teams tough to beat, but with a dash more adventure than a Moyes or Hodgson will give you.

Moyes was the Scott McTominay of football management. Alex Ferguson was the Ruud Gullit of football management (albeit not the managerial version of Gullit, but the force-of-nature player version, for the metaphor, right?!).

Could the problem have not been the difficulty in replacing Ferguson or Wenger, but doing it with people so utterly mid-level and in Wenger’s case, upper mid-level but also with comical, undermining English?

Neville also said last December that Spurs would finish above Liverpool when they got their injured players back.

I said at the time that this was really unhinged thinking, with no basis in reality, and skewed by the distortion of (an admittedly more positive) Spurs’ great start – according to data analysis – being down to facing promoted and struggling clubs, plus a win against 9-man Liverpool that was farcical.

Liverpool then lost about about a dozen players across the winter, many of them vital, and still finished well above Spurs. (Just the 16 points.)

Neville had also said a few years ago that Man United would win the league before Liverpool, and how did that work out?

As I noted recently, last season was Man United’s Gérard Houllier treble campaign: 11 years after the Reds last won the league in 1990, in 2001, to United’s 11 years after 2013.

(Also, a counterattacking team that wasn’t going to win league titles, and far less expensive, relatively speaking, than the Man United of 2024.)

United could be better this season with new backroom staff forced upon a manager undermined in public, and who is already saying they are not ready for the season; but Neville may have a good idea of the merits of his old club, and a very distorted, non-rational one of Liverpool FC. (And likewise, I may suffer the same in reverse.)

Last summer, some tipped Chelsea to finish above Liverpool, and the BBC’s 30 pundits had Man United finishing 3rd and Liverpool 4th. Sometimes people go on the end of the previous season, or the summer signings.

While other clubs will also have newer players who will settle, and younger players who improve, Liverpool are in the middle of a rebuild that began a year before Klopp departed, and continues now.

And again, I think Liverpool could still spend up to £200m in this window, whilst raising over £100m; but only if it’s on players better than already at the club, and they can be got out of where they are.

No one saw £111m for Moises Caicedo coming, at this point a year ago. No one. And even when Liverpool bought Virgil van Dijk in 2018, people said he’s a £50m player at most; but the club paid £75m, or £100m or so in today’s money. (Ditto Alisson, who had less than one full season in the Roma goal when Liverpool sought him out.)

I think Anthony Gordon could still join Liverpool, to add searing pace and both goals and assists (and Newcastle may need to raise funds after the splurge), and I think links with the likes of Rayan Aït-Nouri, Piero Hincapié and Gonçalo Inácio are all for potentially gettable players, while the freakishly good and gigantic Giorgi Mamardashvili would be a canny buy to loan to Bournemouth for Premier League adaptation, ahead of selling an ageing Alisson next summer (and if Kelleher opts to leave this summer, or then, with Vítězslav Jaroš’s surprising good development another bonus).

Liverpool can also sort deals in an instant with release clauses that aren’t as complicated as those in Spain, for players who aren’t as complicatedly connected to their clubs as the confused Martin Zubimendi, who was put in a horrible position by his club.

(However, as he’s not a destructive no.6, then the talk that the Reds aren’t looking at alternatives make sense, as Slot wants a footballing no.6 who passes and intercepts, and he can shape those from within the squad, as he did with a very raw Mats Wieffer. Unless you can find a no.6 who keeps it superbly after winning it, you’re back at Paul Ince replacing John Barnes, where the latter never gave the ball away, while most of Ince’s great tackles were his second touches after loose first ones. What Liverpool gained in steel they lost in silk.)

But no signings, and I’ll enjoy watching the elite younger players come of age, and the team work its new forms of magic. I’ll find things to enjoy.

But part of a rebuild is just time, and shared experience, in games, and more vitally, in detailed training, via an elite coaching staff. Plus, any new signing has to settle, and may take a year, so you can’t always factor in their impact to the coming season. And Liverpool already have a lot of shared understandings and a sense of belonging, via the youngsters coming through the system.

(And anyone can get injured, with younger players most at risk, especially as the game gets ultra-athletic, and it now takes more toll on teenage bodies still developing. Liverpool tried to buy Romeo Lavia, and he was then out all season. Liverpool enquired about Leny Yoro, he breaks his foot. Oscar Bobb, City’s “new Foden”, has just broken his leg via what sounds like a stress fracture, so common in young players. You can prevent a lot of injuries, but not from bad tackles and awkward falls.)

When Liverpool signed Ryan Gravenberch a couple of weeks into last season, he arrived after a season without much football, and was starting to look the part in red, before he was taken out in the League Cup final by a man Liverpool had recently bid £111m for (“FSG tightwads”.)

Gravenberch, having just turned 22, remains skilful, athletic, quick and 6’3”, with the kind of all-round skillset that can be moulded into numerous roles; as shown in his teens at Ajax. Now settled in England, he can be a totally different player.

He’s not a brave tackler, but nor were other players Slot worked with at Feyenoord until he found ways to change that. But he also got them intercepting, reading the game, picking things off.

Liverpool will have a bench full of players who would start for very good teams.

Like Klopp, Slot seems to like to use subs, so again, a nice continuity there; the ability to change things, and an eagerness to make the most of fresher legs and new dynamics.

There’s a lot of pace and directness on the bench, in Bradley, Doak (if not loaned), and possibly Darwin Núñez if Jota starts, and some real game-changers.

(If Elliott doesn’t start, he’s so good at changing games from the bench, and could easily force his way into the team, he’s that good and only going to get better. If he replaces Szoboszlai, then the latter can offer elite pace and talent from the bench.)

Gravenberch is just one example of someone who could easily treble their impact, and as such, my prediction remains that the team has an outside chance of the title as things stand ...

... but that the Reds perhaps have an equal chance of any of the top six positions, in that, as one example, no one knows what the hell Chelsea will produce (as they spend money they don’t seem to have, and have already signed more players in two years than Liverpool have since Rodgers was manager).

If it’s a season where the Big Six mostly all beat the other 14, then it could be a very high points-scoring campaign at the top end, and you could have a strong season and finish 6th, or 3rd, or 1st. (Man City could suffer punishments, but we all know that they won’t.)

In 2017, I said I felt Klopp – at the time being doubted – could turn Liverpool into a 90-point team. Little did I know that he’d hit 97 and still not win the league, and then 92 and the same happen, either side of winning it with 99. I never saw three Champions League finals on the immediate horizon, and as with 2005 vs 2007, probably playing better in the ones that were lost than were won (football is random).

I’m neither an optimistic nor a pessimist, but spend a lot of time and thought trying to be as realistic as possible. That’s my raison d'etre (translation: determined raisin).

Realistic expectations are vital; live in the clouds and you’ll be killed by lightning, or falls from 10,000 feet.

Don’t expect too little and accept rubbish either, but don’t expect too much, or it’s just not a worthwhile bet (most years, virtually all clubs fail to win the biggest honours).

So, predictions are for mugs.

But to say that Liverpool will not make the top six seems a bit extreme.

Maybe Gary Neville will be ‘right’, just as he was when he said that Spurs would finish above Liverpool last season, right?

What I will say is that I plan to try and enjoy this season, cut the refs a bit more slack (as long as the PGMOL plays fair), and look for signs of progress in what, with an entirely new coaching staff, new club structure and a lot of newer/younger players (and I still think new additions to follow in the next two weeks), is still a transitional season: but one that may be a lot of fun, if we don’t expect to win every single game.

Controversial, I know, but let’s try and enjoy the football.

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