Liverpool Are Elite Against the Better Teams

"Not played anyone yet" has taken one hell of a beating

I like looking at the underlying numbers, but it’s not something I always obsess over. However, when they are remarkable, it’s worth noting.

Before Liverpool battered Leverkusen 4-0 with 17 shots inside the area and an xG that was also 4 (which is rare), whilst yet again not even conceding a full xG against*, I’d written that the Reds’ underlying numbers were elite.

You can read that free article here.

(*It’s still only two of the 14 main competition games where the xG against has been above 1.0, and eleven times when it’s been below. The most the Reds have conceded, 1.4, came at Old Trafford once 3-0 up, and Man City have conceded 2.0, 2.6 and 2.7 within their last six games.)

Then, the best performance of the season on the data, against, match for match, the best team in Europe last season.

Meanwhile, Man City’s ‘data’ took another shellacking, along with the 4-1 defeat.

The Reds now have the best xG Difference in the Premier League, and the best xG Difference in the Champions League; as such, both positions atop the actual tables are fully deserved, and both done at the same time, with all the Cumulative Effort, seems insane.

(Throw in League Cup games against West Ham and away at Brighton too.)

I said at the start of the season that, of the eight games in the new Champions League format, most looked tough; and to win four (half) would be pretty good going, and to see where that ends up. I envisaged challenging for the top four domestically at the same time, but the added difficulty of the European games could impinge on that.

It seemed ludicrous to think that the Reds would fall away because Arne Slot would be some kind of David Moyes, and I was optimistic; but this is almost surreally good so far.

And yet fully merited based on the data.

Liverpool’s remaining opponents in the Champions League have some interesting data of their own, at a time when the Reds’ domestic title rivals are seeing the performances plummet.