Liverpool Bizarrely Written Off For League Title After 'Battering' Man United

A 'Halfway' Assessment of Where Liverpool Are At

While Liverpool did not 'batter' Man United in scoreline, nor make good decisions in the final third, there were still 34 shots on goal to almost none in reply, and 12 corners to zero.

A late deflected goal, or even André Onana flapping one into his own net – he flapped at everything else – would have led to narratives of Liverpool, top of the league, showing what it takes; the signs of a title-winning team.

Jürgen Klopp was right in that it was the most one-sided game against Man United, and a sign of just how incredibly little was expected of United, to essentially play like a mega-expensive Dychian Burnley.

Roy Keane's weird outburst, saying that Liverpool have only won one title in 30 years in response to Virgil van Dijk pointing out (correctly) that only one team tried to win this game (but then van Dijk said that he liked Keane, in response, to confound the crazy attack-dog), ignores that it's one more than Man United in the past decade.

Ditto on Champions League trophies in that time, as well as three league points tallies (90+) that Keane's United never matched, and more Champions League finals than Keane played in.

Not that it matters much, as what we're talking about is a Liverpool team near the top, where the past five years are the more relevant than distant history, and a United team in 7th (which is still higher than you'd have thought given that they were painted as a bunch of hapless non-leaguers).

Liverpool are also rebuilding this year, and had six senior players missing who could have been in the XI; and 3-4 probably would have been.

(And having West Ham tonight in the cup in between the mere six-day break between Man United and Arsenal surely means saving players for the weekend, without much choice; even if they start they will have to come off early.)

While other clubs have injuries, they also have ill-discipline on and off the pitch (like United).

I looked at Arsenal's half-dozen who are currently out for comparison, and none of them make the XI, bar perhaps Jurrien Timber, who was injured so early after arriving that it's hard to know. Otherwise it's all their bench players. So it's not just numbers of injuries, but the importance of the players.

Liverpool are bedding-in a totally brand new midfield, with the three who started in the key area of the pitch having made just 16, five and five Premier League career starts respectively, it would have been handy to have the two best preexisting injured midfielders back to help balance the load, whilst Alexis Mac Allister has over 100 Premier League games, and would have suited this game.

Interestingly, in relation to another piece I was writing and only worth mentioning on the back of what Keane said, I was recalling how ex-United players said a decade ago that they wouldn’t suffer a long wait to retain the title, in contrast to Liverpool from 1990 onwards.

But now, for United, in terms of league title drought, is the equivalent season to Liverpool’s treble under Gérard Houllier; the 11th season.

But that's by-the-by.

I don't think Liverpool have ever been favourites for the title this year, nor should they be.

Prior to the season I wasn't expecting them to be top after 17 games. And as I keep noting, the Reds have gone to Man City, Spurs, Newcastle, Chelsea and Brighton, and hosted Aston Villa (and now Man United).

They are still one home game behind, due to the foregone opening fixture at Anfield.

I read that this team is nowhere near as good as the runners-up of 2021/22 and 2018/19.

Yet after 16 games the Reds had the same number of points – 37 – as they had in 2021/22, which was statistically speaking (Elo Index) the best season in the club's history, and the 4th-best in European history, which Man City's treble marginally knocked into 5th place last season. (Had Liverpool won in Paris, when only the keeper and the police stopped them, they'd still be 4th.)

I've already pointed out how incredibly tough the fixtures for City and Arsenal are in late winter through to spring, and while easier Round of 16 draws in the Champions League reduces the ultra-stress at that potential pinch point, it shifts it to both being more likely to play quarter-finals, where it all begins to add up.

And if you're showing signs of mental fatigue like City, and have 'league table pressure' already, it could easily thwart the usual City winning streak.

The idea that City, on the back of a season like 2022/23, will just automatically go on winning run seems to ignore how a better City side in 2019/20 were third at his point, and ended up with just 74 points, with a failure to win any more than three consecutive league games all season until the title was lost to Liverpool, when Pep Guardiola's men got beat at Chelsea; after which they won the final five games.

(Indeed, once they'd already lost the title, they beat Liverpool 4-0, Newcastle 5-0, Brighton 5-0, Watford 4-0 and Norwich 5-0. That suggests they perked up once the pressure was off, as well as boosting the xG table.)

While I may be wrong (as ever), to me, this City feel a bit more like that one: at the end of a run of tough seasons, and on the back of a very emotional, and possibly emotionally-draining success. They smashed it on the xG table in 2019/20, too, but in reality the pressure meant they missed more chances and conceded more goals, and finished 23 points behind Liverpool. (And as I noted in a recent piece, their record against good teams this season is really poor, in stark contrast to last season.)

I've also got other reasons for suggesting that, this season, City and Arsenal are more likely to tire than Liverpool. (Aston Villa will surely fade away to some degree, but maybe not from the top four.) For example, 15 players fairly evenly spread across City and Arsenal have played between 1,700 and 2,100 minutes this season in all competitions; Liverpool have one, and he just scrapes in. (Since I wrote this paragraph yesterday, City fielded a strong XI in the Club World Cup semi-final, meaning they'll also play a strong XI in the final.)

So I wanted to use my various trusted assessment methods to write this piece ahead of the Arsenal clash, as the worst Liverpool could be – with just Burnley away to play to make it to half the season – is four points off the lead. The best is top of the table.

In recent years I've tended to retain a pretty decent handle on where Liverpool are at (including some harsh criticisms last season), as I think long-time readers will appreciate (with some mistakes on my part, too). A lot of what I do is like a basic medical checkup.

I have various measures that I use, that can be analogous to blood pressure, resting heart rate, checking weight, cholesterol, and blood sugar level. You want a mix of inputs, and to have clear context.

My approach mixes data with the eye-test, as someone with, I think, a proven understanding of football in various ways, but where I'm always still learning, and where I don't have the knowledge of an A-list coach or access to the masses of data a club like Liverpool has on its own players. (And you also have to cotton on to new trends, new ideas, and not just stick to old methods.)

Plus, we all come from a position of relative ignorance; we just have to try hard to be even less ignorant.

Take Alexis Mac Allister at Sheffield United. I thought he had a quiet game, but he'd obviously taken a 'knock' to the thigh and knee. Little did I know the studs that were stamped down on him (maybe accidentally) cut through the muscle to the bone. Yet he soldiered on, as the home fans booed him for being a faker.

Who knew his injury was as horrific as it was, and who cut him enough slack as a result during the game? Even the medical staff probably didn't know until after the game. So we have to bear our own ignorance in mind, and work from there.

So, onto where I think Liverpool are at right now.

*This deep-dive assessment is for paying TTT Main Hub subscribers only*