Liverpool Can (And Should) Be Even Better Next Season

(Repost from TTT ZenDen)

Note: I published this on my comment-free ZenDen Substack this morning, and felt that, as I take a break to deal with my mum’s funeral, it was worth sharing on here too (I’ve got one more article lined up for the ZenDen that I will publish in the next week or so). I imagine there’s a lot of punditry effluence flowing out right now, and this article is both a look ahead to how things can get better, and an appreciation and analysis of how good things already are.

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If you’re going for the title, and still in the Champions League and even other competitions, there will always be points in the spring when things overload. I’ve been pointing this out for over 20 years.

This is what I always warn of as unavoidable Cumulative Effort that leads to a breaking point, except rather than the quarters or semis, Liverpool played the most in-form team in Europe in the round of 16, as bad luck; and the hassles of the League Cup takes its toll with the timing and nature of the semifinals and final.

If Liverpool had gone out of the League Cup months ago, say away at Man City or Arsenal, no one would have said anything.

Now, despite winning 72% of their games this season (including 80% in the Champions League), and still having by far the best record against the best 25 teams in Europe (across 26 games), suddenly Liverpool, on the back of gruelling extra-time against PSG that itself came on the back of a constant stream of must-win games, have been “found out”. (Insert laughing emoji.)

I’ve been busy pointing out Liverpool’s incredible body of work this season, lest anyone get fixated on a sticky patch. I’ve just shown that Liverpool are by far and away the best side in Europe already, on every metric, against the rest of the Top 25 teams:

The European 'Ultra League' – Europe’s Top 25 Ranked Sides vs Other Top 25 Ranked Sides

(And obviously excellent against everyone who is not part of the Top 25 teams in Europe. The chart below is overall wins against the Top 25 prior to the final, which shows how good Newcastle are against other good teams, but the article includes win%, points per game, xG Difference, etc.)

For a team like Newcastle, a League Cup must feel remarkable, but Liverpool’s usual substitutes have more League Cup winners’ medals than most clubs. The League Cup is a great day out, but overall, small beer.

Thankfully, the 12-point gap in the league table means the worst is over, in terms of unmanageable schedule, and the rest of the season can be sane. Now it’s Arsenal’s turn to have the manic schedule, the ties against Real Madrid in the midst of league encounters.

*Just* winning the league title? I’ve felt that the most likely outcome for a while. And it feels pure.

The talk of doubles and trebles and quadruples just gives the shit-spreaders something to criticise you for, for falling short of something nearly impossible; and so that merely achieving something extremely improbable, that will be hard-won over 10 months, and that is the ultimate prize (and that no neutrals saw coming), will be seen as some sad consolation, some pathetic failure.

And that’s clearly nonsense.

(This is what’s troubling me: the reframing of the season as a failure or the team being found out. It’s been a sub-par week or two after non-stop games since the start of December, and at this point, even crawling to the league title would still be a league title. Regarding the peak-end rule, we’ve had a lot of peaks since August, and from this point, how it ends should not matter in the grand scheme of things, so don’t let anything other than winning the league distract you from the achievement of winning the league, if the league, as expected, is won. People will seek to ruin your fun, too. Don’t let them. Don’t let anything be undermined. It’s not as exciting winning a league title from the front than overtaking someone, and people forget or overlook the previous 6-8 months.)

But whatever happens for the rest of the season, as well as some challenges in the summer, I see scope for Liverpool to get better, via various means. This is, after all, just the start.

**The vast majority of this in-depth article is for paying TTT Main Hub subscribers.**