Liverpool Fans' Uncertain Summer. And Uncertainty Drives You Insane

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As I noted recently, below is a list of the definite first XI Liverpool players who will be aged under 32 this coming season, and/or have more than a year left on their deals at the time of writing:

1. Alexis Mac Allister

(End of list.)

And we don’t even know if Mac Allister will be a no.6, no.8 or no.10.

(NB: Luis Díaz would be another, were his future set in stone, but it seems he may want a move to Spain. And people also question his end product.)

What Liverpool have instead is about 25 players who could play a part, and maybe 15-20 from whom the majority could form the majority of a great side.

In that 25 are some sensational players aged 21 or under.

There’s so much to be excited about; yet also so much uncertainty, and people would rather die than suffer uncertainty. (As seen with the mountaineers who push on with the final 100m of their ascent of Everest in terrible weather, rather than wait it out.)

Change is also scary, for similar reasons. But entropy ensues if you just leave everything unchanged. I’m still trying to make sense of this summer, and while there’s nothing to panic about, it’s the uncertainty that’s hard to live with.

Add a new manager, new director of football, and it seems like monumental change. This is the post-Jürgen Klopp era now.

However, Michael Edwards and Julian Ward are back in more senior roles, but in a new structure, and that makes it seem less “brand new”.

I’m extremely excited about Arne Slot, about the new ‘front office’, and pretty much all of the Liverpool squad. But I can’t recall having less sense of how it all fits together; of who will play where; of just how ready the very-nearly-ready kids are.

A new signing or two would help signal where things are going. But boy, the clickbait world is grim out there, with misleading headlines, and pop-up ads that cover what you’re trying to read (which you soon realise is just garbage).

In many previous transfer windows, before last summer, I was often preaching keeping the squad together, and expecting minimal change. People wanted signings, but I felt it was a case of letting things improve organically.

But now we don’t know who exactly Arne Slot wants, and who Richard Hughes will give him; or the role Edwards will play.

It’s also the summer of never-ending Euros and Copa America, and the strange June 30th PSR deadline that sped up the early summer shenanigans. Players will be back at preseason training ... at some point before 2025.

Transfers in and out will be delayed because of the internationals, with very few done while players are at tournaments; either because they are focused, or their country’s management won’t allow it (or it’s just logistically difficult with medicals, etc.).

Then, will Slot go back to Feyenoord for any of his old players?

Slot won’t have first choice, but will have some input, and can obviously vouch for players the club already has on its radar if he’s worked with them, or seen them up close. Yet any reports that talk as if he’s running the transfer show are easily dismissed as nonsense.

Lutsharel Geertruida (full-back, centre-back, defensive midfielder) seemed likely as he’s only got a year left on his deal, and was at a Liverpool game late last season, but he’s with Holland in Germany.

Yankuba Minteh, right-winger on loan from Newcastle, joined Brighton. Various clubs want the no.6, Mats Wieffer. Left-winger Igor Paixão is now quoted as saying he’s waiting for Liverpool. Left-sided centre-back or left-back Dávid Hancko has been linked to the Reds before, and as of last night, he’s joined Riccardo Calafiori in being out of the Euros.

But if Liverpool are going to sign a Feyenoord player who is at the Euros, Slot will at least know the player’s wishes.

Yet it’s unlikely Liverpool will “raid” the Dutch club, and even Richard Hughes was fed up of his scouts at Bournemouth recommending Feyenoord players, as he realised that Slot was they key. He was getting so much out of his players that it may have been skewing their true value; and as such, at Liverpool, the idea may be to take players from a higher starting point, or with more untapped potential, and get Slot to elevate them further.

(Or perhaps one or two of Feyenoord’s players have a lot more to offer, and can make further strides. Geertruida, nearly 24, could be one ... but two of Liverpool’s best players are attacking right-backs aged 25 and under, one of whom could play as a no.6 in a well-organised team that knows how to pass a football.)

Slot, with impressive due diligence, watched a lot of the recorded training sessions from last season, so he’ll have a good idea of the players beyond footage of the games. Edwards and Ward, who only left in 2022 and 2023 respectively, will know about most of the players at the club, and Alex Inglethorpe can fill in the blanks on any younger players. The senior scouts know the score, while Will Spearman will have all the data.

In the early training sessions of his own, Slot will quickly assess some young players and some fringe players (and the very small number of senior players who aren’t off at a tournament), but it will too late to leave it until after preseason to try and decide who to buy, to then to try and buy them, and to then successfully integrate them.

The earlier the signing the better, when trying to use that vital 1-2 months to blend things together. It’s never as easy for a player to arrive after preseason, as it’s less time to bond, and he won’t be at the same physical level as the rest.

But this is yet another bloated FIFA and UEFA summer, and you don’t want to rush into signings for the sake of it.

Slot and Hughes were already talking transfers ages ago, from before the manager (as I will refer to him) was officially confirmed, so it seems more a case of which fringe players impress enough to stay and which ones go on loan or are sold, with the massive emergence of young talent last season a lovely problem to have.

We also have talk of Luis Díaz wanting to play for Barcelona, and Darwin Núñez, an emotional guy, also saying he was happier when he was in Spain.

There’s the future of Mo Salah (still a top talent but a fading physical and goalscoring force), with one year left on his deal, which could cost Liverpool £90m in lost transfer fee (£70m) plus paid wages (£20m) if he sees it out – for which you’d want a hell of a lot in return (i.e. 2017-2022 era Salah, which age may have made impossible).

Salah one of three hitherto vital players with just a year left on his deal, but you feel that Virgil van Dijk can go on for longer as the leader and the centre-back (but who will need a super-quick partner as he ages, but who could be extra important to a new Dutch manager), and Trent Alexander-Arnold will also get a new deal. But with the latter, we don’t know where he will play. I just don’t see him leaving.

With Alisson, Liverpool have a keeper in his peak, but close to the edge of having peaked; and have a backup who is improving all the time.

Conor Bradley’s impact was huge last season, with one of the best data suites I’ve seen on FBRef.com. And he’s not at peak pace and physical strength yet, at 20, almost 21. There’s so much more to come.

We don’t know what Dominik Szoboszlai’s best position is; nor Ryan Gravenberch’s. Both have leeway after a transitional first season, with terrific potential.

We don’t know how strong Stefan Bajcetic will be, just that he’s elite for his age.

I know that a year ago the little-known Kobbie Mainoo, now 19, had an age-related stress injury for Man United in preseason, but they saw him as good enough to rely on when fit. It’s one of those where the outside world knows far less about the player.

I think Bajcetic is at least as good, but coming back from a year out, not a few months out. Prior to last summer, Mainoo had played one league game for United, but they believed in him. By a younger age, Bajcetic had 11 Premier League games for Liverpool, in a better team.

Similarly, we don’t know quite how ready Ben Doak is, but a year ago I was thinking that Bradley and Jarell Quansah were future stars – but not necessarily going to be as ready as they proved to; particularly Quansah, who I expected to need another loan.

And Harvey Elliott is getting ever closer to a first-XI role, with phenomenal ‘progressive actions’ metrics across the six I monitored, that outstripped any other Liverpool player and also Kevin de Bruyne. The only caveat is that he did quite a lot of it as a sub, when the Reds were pushing forward. But again, he should continue to improve.

At Doak’s age, even six months is a developmental epoch, physically, emotionally and technically. He was rushed into Scotland’s Euros squad after injury, but hopefully will okay for preseason.

If you think that a player may have been training with the first team for just two years (or less), and spent part of that injured, then six months is an eternity. Pace, stamina and strength increases on average, year or year, well into the 20s. To me, Doak has everything to be an elite winger, but it’s a question of when, and if he can stay fit. (There are no alarms over the injury he had, but teens are more brittle.)

How good is Bobby Clark? The lad is good, make no mistake. But how good? Ditto James McConnell. And Tyler Morton, further down the track in his career, after excelling on loan in the second tier (and with England U21s), along with Fabio Carvalho.

Kaide Gordon was sensational at 16 and 17; but at 19, after two years out? It’s almost impossible to recover from the lack of developmental time, but he was so far ahead of the pack it could still be possible. Again, Gordon could be a revelation after a good preseason, or he could end up on loan.

Luke Chambers is a real talent, and two great young attacking fullbacks are Calum Scanlon and Owen Beck. But while you want homegrown kids, you can’t have too many in the side at once, and none of these seem ready for 2024/25.

Lewis Koumas is now a full Welsh international, but Jayden Danns, also 18, just has something almost unique about him, with a massive growth spurt turning him from a small clever player to a big clever player, with an eye for goal. He’s now a 6ft centre-forward, but has better skills than many, and the air of a lad who feels he belongs.

Clearly lots of young players will go out on loan, as there’s just not room for them. But which ones will break from the pack into the first-team squad as a regulars? So far, the injury and illness-plagued Calvin Ramsay is the only one to go out (for a season at Wigan).

Then, Núñez or Gakpo as the no.9? What to do with Diogo Jota, who is too good to leave out but picks up a lot of knocks.

Then, the fact that Núñez is the only attacker Liverpool who wasn’t mid-paced last season, with Salah’s top speed dipping. But Núñez is the least “intelligent” player, unlike the other four main options. Doak, as the young backup, is a flyer, but how ready is he?

Then again, Szoboszlai was one of the fastest players in the league. But where do you play him? His massively impactful first six months faded with injuries, possible burnout (he was rarely rested) and then with one eye on the Euros as Hungary’s weight-carrying talisman.

Núñez is lethal in terms of cutting teams open, and significantly less lethal in terms of making the most of an average of five shots per game. He creates chaos, which is good, and he creates chaos, which is bad.

I’m a huge Gakpo fan, and think there’s lots more to come from him, as he gets stronger. I just don’t know how or where Slot will use him. He’s more technical and reliable than Núñez, but obviously not as quick. Gakpo wastes less xG, with excellent conversion rates until last season, but doesn’t have as many efforts as Núñez.

Were the Reds to play with two super-quick wingers, Gakpo could link play, like Roberto Firmino did with Salah and Sadio Mané. But again, Gakpo could also be on the bench, or an option on the left, despite not having blistering pace.

A year ago, Ibrahima Konaté was first-pick for Liverpool and France; now it’s neither.

Again, he’s not exactly injury prone but flirts with the red zone a lot. He was absolutely superb until the Everton game, where he got duped by the ref. Quansah is less aggressive on the deck and in the air, and more raw, but better on the ball, and has more scope to improve over the next couple of years at just 21. But Virgil van Dijk is about to turn 33 and may not be a solution beyond 35.

Sepp van den Berg excelled on loan in Germany, and then this summer seemed to kick off about Liverpool, and not getting chances, and wanting to leave, when he only really came of age (at 21-22) last season.

Without those statements, I felt he could push to become part of the Reds’ matchday squad, and at 22, development for a centre-back is never done. For many, it’s barely the start. He’s also got the skillset to play as a no.6, as I think he did in Holland aged 16 (for the club Slot had played for, PEC Zwolle, and where the defender was in the youth system from 2012, when Slot was still a player there). Quansah is another who could play as a no.6.

I’d assume Wataru Endō would stay and be handy, but you don’t build around a solid, James Milner-type. Maybe only Kostas Tsimikas feels ready to be cast aside.

How different will any of the no.6s look in a double-6, with more protection alongside them?

Who will flourish in the no.8/no.10 role, which would suit Elliott, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai, Gakpo, Gravenberch and even Salah? (Plus, if sufficiently ready, Carvalho.)

You could also see Jota playing the role, where cleverness, creativity, progressing the ball with passes or dribbles (but where blistering pace is not as vital), and getting goals, would be something he could do, and all the others could do, theoretically.

Of course, it would also suit Curtis Jones, who is easily overlooked; a potential no.6, no.8, no.10, and who can play on the wing. So far, 133 games shows he’s an excellent player but as with a lot of the squad, the very handy versatility can work against him at times, and for him at others. Again, a great player to have, but will he play, and where will he play?

Of the youth team, Trey Nyoni could be a revelation there in time.

Will Slot even use his own system, or stick with the one he inherited? How much will he keep and how much will he overhaul?

Getting the balances right in various areas (pace, height, stamina, skill) will be an issue.

Players like Mac Allister and Elliott are elite linkers, but neither is fast nor tall.

Ideally I’d want 5-6 really tall players in the side, or a tall team overall, like Arsenal, where there are fewer giants but most are 6ft.

The 5-6 is like Liverpool c.2020 or Man City more recently, with enough big players, and exceptional smaller players.

But several of Liverpool’s taller players are not great in the air, in part as aerial prowess (in duels) is a mixture of height+age+experience. Players get stronger with age, wiser with age. They can get gnarlier after years in the Premier League. The best aerial duellists are always tall, but mostly older, too.

But that’s not the case yet with Quansah, Gravenberch and Szoboszlai. It’s also not the case with Núñez or Gakpo; albeit the former has a good leap and good technique when in space, and Gakpo was showing signs of bulking up and started winning duels at corners, as well as scoring headers.

Aerial duels seem much harder in England. Players arrive with 80% success rates from Germany and can have 45% rates in England. Interestingly, the best at aerial duelling in England for almost a decade has been van Dijk, and last season was his best to date. But he often seemed to be the only target at attacking corners.

Joël Matip had terrible technique and no leap, but at 6’5”, and once he beefed up a bit, he became much more effective in the air (height+age+experience). Wataru Endō is good for his size, but that’s not the same as being highly effective overall. It’s another area where Bajcetic, at 6ft, will improve, year on year.

Plus, more opposition teams seem to use the little shove (“not enough contact”) to push players from under the flight of the ball. Everton were masters in the Goodison derby, to nudge Konaté and van Dijk before making an aerial challenge. A bit more of that type of canniness is needed from Liverpool, with the refs so poor.

And a bit more tigerish tackling, without going in too hard or over the ball. Endō was one of the few who really got stuck in, and while I don’t mind players bottling tackles and losing the ball if they fear they’ll get their leg broken, you need a few who will put their foot in.

At times Liverpool were a bit bullied, but early last season, various innocuous tackles led to four ludicrous red cards, and that didn’t help. How can you tackle firmly for the ball if your team is getting a red card every second game?

In various other games, Liverpool were penalised 10 times for fouls before finally getting one themselves, often just before half-time. I can only hope the refs are fairer and less full of contempt for Slot, even if I get why they found Klopp so emasculating.

Team cohesion is the next thing to balance: too many new players and there’s no shared understanding. Slot ideally wants to make the most of what was working, including the shared patterns of play, while adding his own.

You want a team to grow together, as Liverpool’s did from 2017, and Arsenal’s from 2021, whilst refreshing and adding to – without destroying the gains made.

Chelsea showed that a disparate bunch of players bought over a two-year period could start to gel, to some degree, but at the cost of various managers’ payoffs, and no Champions League football. Somehow finishing 6th became seen as an achievement.

About 15 years ago I determined that half of all transfers fail, and posited that you might need to sign ten to have five successes.

I also said that 23 and under was often the best age to buy. (But that no team had ever been champions with an average age below 25.)

Chelsea did the former in 2003-2006, buying tons of expensive players who would cost £100m-£250m in today’s money, and offloading the flops, in the pre-FFP era – which means they remain the most expensive team and squad in English history (relative to others of the time, and thus still a standout 20 years later). But that’s not as viable in the FFP era, thankfully. (But it seems you can find ways around it...)

Plus, managers like Klopp and directors of football like Edwards showed that you don’t have to buy as many players if you scout them better, and help them settle, within well organised teams and structures, and when given good instructions. Plus, managerial stability means fewer players signed at the behest of different managers with different ideas.

Chelsea seem to be implementing the ideas I had 15 years ago – but which I would not stick by now, given how much I’ve learnt; but at the same time, they could start to see cohesion grow provided that they don’t keep overhauling, year after year. (As I write this, they’ve signed about 15 new players.)

Chelsea are doing what I, as someone who has never run a club or managed a team, would have done in 2010, based on the numbers, without the wisdom gained since. But also, they are gambling with so many players that the odds will be kind on some, and then it’s a question of how long it’s given to blend. If you throw enough muddy signings at the wall, some will stick.

Yet, in contrast to what’s happening at Liverpool, you can’t quantify the value of ditching homegrown players, other than to say that Chelsea selling theirs to buy new foreign kids seems a bit soulless. Newcastle tried something similar with French lads a decade or so ago, and they all seemed like mercenaries, there to get a foot-up on the ladder. You can find cliques forming, and unhappy fringe players of any age can be an issue.

‘Homegrown’ players who stay through difficult/lean periods – Steven Gerrard, Jamie Carragher, John Terry, Frank Lampard (bought, but bought fairly young) – send a message that it’s not all just transient and a place to pass through, with no real consequences if you fail.

They provide a kind of ballast, as did the Man United players before they fell off their perch in 2013. Sometimes they are the ones who seem to care the most, albeit not always. But any player who is in it for the long-haul, whether homegrown or bought, cares about the future; anyone else can just care about themselves in the here and now, and jump ship as soon as it suits.

So if you have a majority of players looking to jump ship when times get tough, because they have no affinity with the club or the area, it will naturally fall apart more easily. You need your stalwarts, as long as they don’t go stale, and lose interest.

(Jordan Henderson and James Milner were great for this at Liverpool, but unlike Gerrard, Carragher, Terry and Lampard, probably weren’t coveted by other clubs. But the provided consistency and set high standards at training.)

Equally, you can’t escape having some fly-by-nights, in that not everyone is going to commit their whole career to you, and if they excel and if they are South American in particular, Real Madrid or Barcelona can come calling.

Having Philippe Coutinho for a few seasons gave us good fun, almost a league title, a good half-season in the Champions League on the way to the final (he left wid-way through), and then £142m to buy Alisson and van Dijk. Nothing was won when he was at Liverpool, but it was also win-win (except for him afterwards, and Barcelona, where it was lose-lose, including 4-0 at Anfield).

Luis Suarez likewise, albeit his fee would be worth even more with inflation. But the better a club gets, the easier it is to retain its best players. Suarez came, saw, conquered and courted controversy, and was gone in almost no time; 2011 to 2014. Equally, for some, Barcelona or Real Madrid, as the apex predators, will be too hard to resist (albeit Barcelona helped essentially bankrupt themselves in part with the Coutinho purchase, and now they’re selling off future earnings to try and get by).

Looking back, had Mo Salah left for £200m in 2020, after the title, little would have been lost in the next four years in terms of trophies won; but also, we’ve had four more great years from him (or three, and one decent one), and various near misses, that could have gone either way.

At the same time, that doesn’t mean you keep players for sentimental reasons, and no one has ever let players go at a better age than Bob Paisley.

No one melted on his nine-year watch, but he was also operating from the top of the English food chain at that point, with exits to Italy not quite in vogue (that followed soon after).

Of course, he did lose Kevin Keegan in 1977, a year after this happened, and which is one of my earliest memories*:

(* You’ll never be a real man, Son, was my conclusion, I think. Anthony Gordon has nothing on King Kev.)

And to replace him he got Kenny Dalglish. (What ever happened to him?!)

Most of the ingredients are in place for Slot, but we just don’t know what he’ll make of them, or what will be added.

Liverpool lack pace in various areas, albeit some of the younger players are exceptionally quick for their age. (Bradley and Doak in particular, with plenty more pace to come from them.)

But more pace, power and height are needed, albeit not in massive quantities.

Liverpool have very few players aged 26-30, especially in terms of starters, and Díaz could be going, as could Tsimikas (while Joe Gomez falls down the pecking order, but remains very handy to have – if he’s willing to stay). Rayan Aït-Nouri could be a new left-back option.

There’s a chasm between 25 and 32, and that’s not a big problem, but interesting all the same.

The good news is how many are aged 23-25, and thus likely to be peaking for many more years. They are “good enough” already, but can still get better. (And players like Bradley and Elliott, who will both be 21 when the season starts, are good enough too.)

Again, this was Arsenal 2-3 years ago, with a lot of players aged under 25, but who would improve as individuals and as a team if kept together, aided by the right additions.

Of course, Liverpool are famously tight-lipped about transfers, with very little leaking.

So I think I want some transfer activity for clear first-XI starters, just to give me a sense of where things are heading, and in the hope that signing a no.6, as an example, would make other things clearer, such as it’s then less likely to be an existing player.

But that’s my own uncertainty talking, and it’s not about me. (Uncertain emotions force an uncertain smile.)

The main thing is to be patient. There are enough elite people in place to make it work, but while the clock is ticking, there’s no desperate rush.

Finally, Quadraphonic is out now as a special edition thick quadrilogy hardback via Amazon.