Liverpool's Season Now Has 31 *Far Easier* Games Left

That's 27 in the league and the four (at this point) known games in Europe

A graph I updated a few weeks ago, having first created it a month ago or earlier

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Okay.

So there won’t be much mention of the horrid PGMOL goons in this piece, as I said my piece yesterday:

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But briefly, first of all, the number of Liverpool fans who, like me, switched off after the disallowed goal seems fairly large, based on people I spoke to outside of this website and also on this website. Trust is being eroded in so many ways.

This game should have an asterisk, given the two examples shown in my piece of Man City players in recent seasons being more in line with goalkeepers and the same officials finding it was okay.

Keith Hackett, ex-PGMOL chief back in the days when it had integrity, has called it a perfectly good goal, and it’s worth looking at what he says with the clips, to show how farcical it was; and of course, it totally changes the game.

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At some point I’ll have to revisit the long list of data about officials and how in almost every measure regarding subjective decisions by refs and VARs Liverpool come out worst, but for now, I’ll focus on the positives of what remains in the next 31 games, and how on paper it’s much, much, much easier for the Reds.

(The refs will still be dodgy as fuck, mind, and league table-pressure is of course more at play.)

The Insane Difficulty Is Over

Based on the law of averages, and the quality of the opposition, I’d usually expect four points from the past three games: a win against Villa, a draw against Real Madrid and a defeat at Man City.

While the odds vary on the day, Villa at home seems a win most seasons (80%), but Real Madrid at home and Man City away seem like the kind of games you maybe win 30% of the time and 20% of the time (even if both were won last season).

Put all three games in eight days and it’s a bigger challenge (Density and Intensity; three tough games in a quick succession). All three opponents were in very strong form going into the games. And you just can’t have legitimate goals disallowed at a game-changing scoreline, away from home, and then play well when still under the stress of negative scoreboard pressure. At 1-1, Liverpool change the game. Instead, the PGMOL changed the scoreline.

Opposition Quality

The average ranking and rating of opposition after 15 ‘main’ games stands at:

1. Liverpool 18.60 (elite) and 1,857 (elite; Atletico Madrid average 1,873)

2. Man City 22.20 (almost elite) and 1,834 (almost elite; Man United average 1,834)

3. Arsenal 34.47 (average) and 1,791 (average, Villarreal or PSV Eindhoven)

(Lower ranking = better team; higher rating = better team. Eleven Premier League games and four Champions League games.)

In other words, Liverpool’s average opposition strength is *inside the top 20 best teams in Europe*; and Arsenal’s is almost five places outside the top 30.

City’s is between the two, but nearer to Liverpool, albeit City have played more home games.

However, in the next 31 games in both main competitions, it totally flips for the Reds.

**I’ll explain all this in far more detail below, and how the season can flip from this point, as I first noted five or six weeks ago. This article is for paying TTT Main Hub subscribers only.**