Lucky Liverpool?! Liverpool Are Twice as Good as Arsenal

Reds Extend ‘Title Zone’ Lead as Arsenal Fall Further Behind (Free Read)

So, Arsenal won the league this weekend? That’s how it works, right?

If you don’t care to read any further, here’s the graph that shows you how far ahead of the rest the Reds are in terms of underlying numbers, with xG Difference: essentially the per-game goal difference of xG:

And if you want to look at historical title winners (since 2019) on the xG metrics, here’s how things compare on a rolling six-game average:

(Arsenal are the line in black.)

And if you want to talk refereeing blunders, Liverpool’s poor treatment by the PGMOL is in a league of its own.

Bournemouth Are Better than Man City

Liverpool actually had the more difficult game this weekend, away at a team who had only been ‘beaten’ on the xG once at home this season, and that was by the fractional -0.2.

The rest of the visitors Bournemouth had ‘beaten’, starting at +0.4 vs Man City, and increasingly dominant against Arsenal, Newcastle, Forest, Chelsea and Spurs (+2.6), amongst others; even if they didn’t always win the actual matches, they often ‘deserved’ to.

And in their recent form, home and away, in general terms, they were on a super-hot streak.

Liverpool’s 2-0 win was built on a healthy +0.9 xG advantage, which gave Bournemouth their first significant xG defeat at home (thus, -0.9).

Arsenal deserved to beat a woeful Man City who gifted them big chances and goals, albeit the xG scoreline was just 1.0 vs 0.8, for a +0.2 ‘victory’.

The Gunners took some chances well, but the farce of Phil Foden stupidly giving Thomas Partey the ball and his tame shot then going in off John Stones’ backside, 30 seconds after City got back into the game, was a symbol of City away from home; i.e. rubbish.

This came after City gifted Arsenal two big chances early on.

But for the recent 6-0 win away at Ipswich (+2.5 on xG) City’s away xG Difference average would be -0.14 per game.

That’s worse than Man United’s overall xG Difference per game this season (-0.11), and is lower mid-table level overall. City lost the xG -0.4 at Bournemouth.

Away from home, Man City had already lost the xG -2.4 at Anfield; still by far their biggest xG loss away, at over 3x the next worst. This was their 8th defeat on the metric, but one of the narrower ones.

• Brighton -0.1

• Arsenal -0.2

• Chelsea -0.2

• Brentford -0.3

• Bournemouth -0.4

• Aston Villa -0.6

• Newcastle Utd -0.7

• Liverpool -2.4

By contrast, at home, Bournemouth are elite.

Liverpool had already gone to the Emirates and in a 2-2 draw, ‘lost’ the xG by -0.1, their second worst performance on those metrics of the season, just behind the -0.2 at Newcastle (which was an xG win, until the last kick of the game).

Yet in the other 29 games of the season in two main competitions, Liverpool’s worst result is a +0.3 win (the kids at PSV).

Liverpool’s xG Difference in the league is +1.44 per game, while Arsenal’s has fallen for a fifth successive game, from +0.89 (near the Title Zone) down to +0.75.

They played some big games, but the season’s xG Difference after each of these games has declined.

• Brentford +0.89

• Brighton +0.82

• Tottenham +0.81

• Aston Villa +0.79

• Wolves +0.77

• Man City +0.75

But in their own run of big games (also with a sending off to deal with), including some tough ones away, Liverpool have got better and better:

• Fulham +1.04

• Spurs (a) +1.25

• Leicester City +1.27

• West Ham (a) +1.36

• Manchester Utd +1.38

• Notts Forest (a) +1.40

• Brentford (a) +1.46

• Ipswich Town +1.46

• Bournemouth (a) +1.44

This is how you end up with the rolling xG Difference graph below:

The Title Zone on xG is around +1.0, albeit it’s usually much higher; +1.0 would be low for the average winner, but it’s the bar of entry, so to speak.

However, the previous seasons when it’s happened came with Liverpool already about 20 points clear in 2019/20, and during the crowd-less season of 2020/21, where all underlying numbers took a big hit, and City had overtaken Liverpool by game 20 after Joël Matip joined Joe Gomez and Virgil van Dijk in being out for the season, and then stand-ins Fabinho and Jordan Henderson also got injured. Even then, City’s xG Difference (+1.0) was not that much better than Chelsea’s (+0.85) or Liverpool’s (+0.65).

So, in terms of underlying numbers, Liverpool are now inarguably twice as good as Arsenal.

If you add the Champions League, Liverpool’s numbers get even better.

In other words, Arsenal seem to be ‘Leicester Citying’ their way to a title challenge, via luck, a solid defence and set-pieces. They’re less expansive than in the past, and keener on shithousery and being more like Simeone’s Atletico, which is a strange way to turn. They’ve got a lot of good players (and some superb ones), and a good manager, but few of them have proven they fully have what it takes; and collectively, they haven’t proven anything yet.

They’ve got the experience of coming second, and giving it a good go, but they also have yet to reach 90 points, even though Arteta thinks their points tallies would have usually won the league (wrong!). Or go far in the Champions League.

Or do both, as Liverpool did in 2019 (won the Champions League and got 97 points) and 2022 (unluckily lost the Champions League final and got 92 points).

Even the Reds have hoovered up several more of the cups since Mikel Arteta’s lone one in 2020, albeit I think his improvement of Arsenal into title challenges three times in a row is far more significant; but a title challenge only really counts once you’re into the 30s for games played.

A lot can change from here, but clearly Liverpool are in a position that Arsenal would have expected to be in, had everyone known City would turn into a more expensive version of Southampton.

You can win individual games with bad or average underlying numbers, albeit really dominant underlying numbers within a game almost always lead to wins.

Arsenal aren’t showing that dominance, but are edging games; even this one, they scored five goals from 1xG, which is unsustainable. City crumbled, as they have so many times since Rodri crumbled. On the vital second goal, Foden wasn’t even pressurised, and the deflection was hugely fortunate. I also felt Arsenal’s treatment of Erling Haaland was very childish, even if I have little sympathy for City.

Even if Liverpool lose their game in hand (at Everton), then the gap is still six points; even a draw would make it seven, and a win, nine. That derby will be like a cup final for Everton, but of course, Arsenal still have to come to Anfield, at a time when the season may already be over.

I’ve done so more analysis on the top eight and all their games this season, and how much you need to win the xG by to expect to win the actual match. That may appear tomorrow. Again, Liverpool’s data is astonishing; there’s zero luck involved here.

Liverpool’s consistency is staggering, and the squad is finally more-or-less all fit, after overlooked injuries to Alisson, Diogo Jota, Federico Chiesa and others who didn’t count, because Liverpool still often won.

The one hope I’d offer Arsenal fans is that when the Champions League games kick in, and certainly the quarterfinals and semis, then the league form can take a hit, in between those mammoth encounters. The Champions League semis, in particular, can be hugely emotional and physical events, as we’ve seen at Liverpool in the last 20 years, and what must be six or seven of them, if not more? (Sorry, it’s too many to count off the top of my head.)

Then again, when Liverpool go to City, City will have just played Real Madrid at home, Newcastle and home, and Real Madrid away in the space of a week. So even though City’s home numbers are still pretty good, that could play a part.

Liverpool also have more likelihood of making the League Cup final, which would move the league game at Villa back, to just before the City game.

But based on the season so far, in the Premier League and in the Champions League, in results and in underlying numbers, Liverpool have shown to be the best team in the world this season … so far.

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