Mamardashvili Manilli, Chiesa, Núñez and More

Girl you know it's true (ooh, ooh, ooh)

A busy week, and the promised crescendo could be like A Day in the Life, as, league-wide, the biggest game of musical chairs even seen in sport takes place, to what sounds like an orchestra playing as many notes as possible, rising up the scales.

Or, it could all break down as player X won’t move, and so the falling dominos stop in their tracks. And Liverpool’s squad is already so strong that excellent players can’t make the match-day squad, even if there’s always room for improvement (beyond the improvement of time spent together and elite coaching, as younger players mature, too).

But at least Liverpool have signed a player, to stop that “not signed a player for a year+” talk. And he’s a proper player, even if he’ll only arrive next summer, as the club plans ahead, like a sensible club would.

One of the problems with opinions is that, without all the facts, they’re worse than hot air. (Hot air at least has some uses, including in saunas.)

An adage of circumstantial evidence is that if you look outside and the road is wet, it’s rained; you didn’t need to see it rain to know that. But then again, in this case, John next door had just washed his car, and been a bit wild with his hose.

Martin Samuel made this rather weird observation the other day, which is weird because several key facts are either ignored or just not known to the columnist:

“Crazy Anfield glove story

“Not every strange transfer is the work of Chelsea. Liverpool are edging closer to buying the goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili from Valencia for £34 million. What does Caoimhin Kelleher make of that? Kelleher’s consistency was one of the triumphs of Jürgen Klopp’s final season. He ended up starting ten Premier League games when Alisson was injured, plus 16 in cup matches. Much like Pep Guardiola with Stefan Ortega at Manchester City, Klopp got a lot of credit for grooming an understudy who was so plainly ready to step into the main role when necessary. All goalkeepers make mistakes but Kelleher’s were rare and it seemed that if Alisson did want a move — there was talk about Saudi Arabia – his replacement was in the wings.

“Now this. Who needs a £34million understudy, certainly with academy product Kelleher already on the books? It is suggested Mamardashvili could go straight out on loan, but what would be the point of that? Alisson has a contract until 2027 so there is no need for urgency. It seems bizarre. Liverpool’s previous recruitment has been outstanding and demands trust but, even so, if Kelleher is pushed out in any reshuffle, he surely won’t be idle for long.”

This is where a lack of understanding leads to a ‘bad’ opinion. It’s a hazard of the trade, of lots of opinions about things you know barely enough about. I know a lot more about Liverpool FC than Martin Samuel, but I have my own blind spots.

I did something similar on Federico Chiesa a while back, saying he made no sense for Liverpool, and to ignore the rumours. But I’m no expert on Italian football, nor on Federico Chiesa. (I’m also not a fitness expert no a post-injury recovery expert.)

I was basing that on some false assumptions: the general vibe that Chiesa was ‘finished’, too old for FSG (nearly 27); and no one, including Juventus wanted him. But Barca wanted him. (Barca want lots of players and can pay for none of them.) And Liverpool will buy older players when the value is there.

And his data last season was very good: 37 games, excellent outscoring of xG (as he has in other seasons with Juve), very good defensive numbers, and a top speed that’s quick, if not as rapid as in his younger days.

He’s 97th percentile for Progressive Carries; and a stunning 99th for shot-creating actions, at virtually five per game (even Vinicius Júnior at Real Madrid is only four per game, and Mo Salah is 4.82).

And at £10m or so? And on wages less than the £150k a week at Juve? What’s not to like, if it happens?

If ever a player was undervalued (and ‘Moneyball’), to get Chiesa for half what Liverpool are selling their young squad players for (who wouldn’t even make the bench), and on mid-range wages, is a steal.

(There’s also talk of Darwin Núñez to Arsenal for big bucks, and while unexpected, that fits in with the way fewer clubs outside England can pay big fees, and so to meet FFP/PSR requirements, intramural deals are now more common; just as Everton may have to sell to survive, and be damned about who that is to, including Liverpool – were they to be the only ones stumping up for Jarrad Branthwaite. Atletico buy big, but have already done so this summer, as have Real Madrid. That leaves PSG and Bayern, mainly, for potential £50m-£100m signings; or the Saudis, where most players will not yet go, including Alisson. In Italy they sell to direct rivals all time, and it may be heading over here.)

Especially with the new fitness and medical side of things, aimed at keeping players fit. And a slick technician for this newly evolving team? If keeping the ball is vital, then players like Núñez are less suited, albeit he seems equally unsuited to Arsenal, and more a team like Atletico (but they’ve made their moves). I love Núñez, but as I’ve been saying all summer, he feels like like a Slot player than anyone else at the club.

But all that still remains unresolved. We’ll see.

A cascade of transfers in England could still ensue this week, and one player moving means another can also move, and another be bought, and another be sold.

Anyway, to get back to the original point, Alisson has since admitted that he was tempted to go to Saudi this summer, but finally decided he wanted to focus on proper football.

Kelleher wants first-team football immediately, as does his international manager, who is putting pressure on him. He ‘deserves’ first team football. No one denies that.

Alisson, in the twilight of his peak years, chose to stay.

So Kelleher will presumably be sold, as it’s best for his career, unless he’s ready for another year on the bench. (Vítězslav Jaroš now seems suited to that, after his rapid improvement.)

So, logically, Liverpool buy a younger keeper, aged 23 (two full years younger than Kelleher), who is 6’6”, and has close to the best keeping stats in the world (98th percentile for xG denial) – to arrive next summer, when Alisson will be close to turning 33, and down to the final two years of his contract.

We will know more about how Alisson is ageing as this season progresses. But Alisson being chosen above Kelleher is hardly anything other than a pretty normal football call.

Kelleher has indeed been excellent, and I’d said many times, once he properly came of age last season (his first proper run of games), that I had no qualms about him replacing Alisson, if that was the decision; half expecting Alisson to head to Saudi, as Kelleher narrowed the gap in class between the two.

But you can’t really have Alisson and his wages on the bench, to appease Kelleher.

Nor can you just sell Alisson against his wishes; this is not Chelsea.

Nor can you stockpile 25 goalkeepers. (This is not Chelsea, who seem increasingly like a talent agency and less like a football club.)

So Mamardashvili gets another season in a first team in a major league to develop (with Valencia), with the idea of Premier League adaptation at Bournemouth scuppered by the rules. That would have been the ideal scenario, but he can still be loaned to England in January, I believe (but that might be unsettling mid campaign).

Mamardashvili’s data is mental. To essentially deny 11 goals last season that the average keeper would have conceded is stratospheric stuff. And he’s excellent on crosses, as you’d expect at 6’6”.

And if you want stability with a major managerial change, and if you’re Arne Slot, you probably don’t want to tinker too much with the formula.

Kelleher wouldn’t be a massive risk, but Alisson is obviously a senior player, a leader, and hungry for more success.

(Indeed, he said the club was right to sign Mamardashvili, and that they told him beforehand, which was sensible all round.)

Alisson for one more season (at least) makes sense, and spending £30m or so on an absolute beast of a keeper to future-proof the most important position in football seems utterly sensible.

Especially with Kelleher’s own future uncertain due to the desire to be a no.1, which is totally understandable as he approaches 26. He’s not a young man anymore, and not even young for a keeper anymore.

Liverpool could always loan or sell-to-buy-back Kelleher, but Mamardashvili, two years younger, already looks better.

That’s what the data says, and he has 169 club games, and 21 international caps – crucially, including the 2024 Euros, where he excelled.

He’s further ahead on his journey at a younger age, has better numbers, and the main selling point of Kelleher – a fine, fine keeper – is that he’s already at the club.

But again, to me, keeper is the most important position in football. So you don’t want to compromise. You can’t rotate keepers, sub keepers on and off, and you can’t play someone from an other position in goal. We saw before Loris Karius totally lost his confidence how he wasn’t instilling belief in the team to start with, and then it all fell apart to the point where he couldn’t even catch a ball in preseason games.

It’s the most unique and specialised position, thus, to me, the most important; especially as a nervy keeper, as noted, will destroy the entire team in front of him. Any other nervy player, you just sub them.

And while Liverpool sensibly like a buyback clause, the timing is rarely right to trigger one; and sometimes the player will be happier after settling somewhere, and not want to move back within a year. (Ditto too many loans leaving players with no sense of belonging.)

What’s clear is that goalkeepers rarely get better after 32, and on average, shot-save percentages peak at 28-30, after which the dimming of reflexes is hopefully compensated for (for a year or two) by increased experience, positioning and reading of situations.

But as pace also almost always diminishes in the early 30s, speed off the line will also wane for Alisson – the best at one-on-one destruction since Peter Schmeichel. And while the new fitness team have a better record of keeping players fit, Alisson has had injury issues in the past.

To have the choice, in 2025, between Alisson for one more year, introducing Mamardashvili, or potentially bringing back Kelleher (if he does indeed leave), seems smart thinking.

Where’s the problem? It’s only a problem if you don’t have all the information.

On the new keeper himself, and a few thoughts on some other names linked, and what Liverpool might do …

**The rest of this article is for paying Main Hub subscribers only.**