NEW BOOK! "Jackpot! How Liverpool’s Slot Machine Won the Premier League" OUT NOW!

NEW BOOK! OUT NOW! EXCLAMATION IN ALL-CAPS!

Jackpot! How Liverpool’s Slot Machine Won the Premier League, available from all Amazon online stores.

I wasn’t going to write a book on how Liverpool won the title in Arne Slot’s first season, until I realised that, throughout the campaign, I’d actually pretty much already written one. From then, it was just a case of going back through all the articles, pulling it all together, and then writing new chapters about the run-in as it unfolded.

(That said, it seems that Arsenal have won the league according to Mikel Arteta, so maybe I’ve wasted my time with this book? Arsenal are also the Champions of Europe after successfully losing both semi-final legs. Maybe I should have written a book about them?!)

As an example of what’s included, here (below) is what I wrote just before the season kicked off, and what made me think, when looking back, that I had probably written a book about what would happen this season, before it had even happened.

Sometimes, paying attention and analysing things is better than pulling nonsense out of your arse.

Gary Neville’s Spurious Comparisons About Liverpool

August 16th, 2024

For an English footballer, Gary Neville was always quite bright; but it’s a low bar. He was also a breath of fresh air (even for this Liverpool fan) on Sky when straight out of the game over a decade ago; now, however many years later, he comes across as a midwit, and a troll.

Maybe he’s just part of the big social media stupefying machine now, that makes people idiotic by the very nature of the interbreeding of very bad ideas via high emotion and reactivity, and which turns almost all high-profile accounts into extremist trolls in the process, taking ever more outlandish positions (also tied in with clickbait). Lots of once-smart people are now frothing lunatics.

Plus, being a football generalist often means you know very little about everything, and to me, that’s now Neville. (And the more he went down the ‘banter’ path, the more he threw away his credibility.)

I genuinely don’t care too much what Neville thinks about Liverpool, but obviously other people do. I also don’t mind Liverpool being written off in many ways (more fool those people), but at the same time, it annoys me when it’s done out of ignorance.

I don’t know if Liverpool will finish 1st or 6th, depending on any further buys (which I expect); who stays fit; how rival teams perform, and who stays fit for them (see Bobb, Oscar); who referees the games (albeit I’m trying to chill about that, and the PGMOL may make some helpful changes); and various other vital variables that cannot even be guessed at at this juncture.

You can add then number of stupid 12:30 kickoff times, and things like going away to an ‘up for it’ promoted side before they run out of steam in October, to the list of factors that go into a season.

Neville told a football podcast: “My surprise [prediction] is Liverpool won’t finish in the top six. Is there a risk with what Klopp got out of that group last season, is there a risk that Liverpool just purely because of what happened with other clubs where managers of that ilk, is there a risk they could tank?”

There are various things here, assuming that he wasn’t taken massively out of context in the excerpt I read (and anything is possible with the clickbait media these days).

Klopp got the most out of these very players last season? Really? That’s funny, as many (most?) of them were out for chunks or all of the season! Klopp didn’t get the best out of Diogo Jota, Alisson, Mo Salah, Dominik Szoboszlai, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ibrahima Konaté, Stefan Bajčetić, Andy Robertson, Conor Bradley, Ben Doak, Ryan Gravenberch and of course the now departed, Joël Matip and Thiago Alcantara last season, as they all had terrible injury issues, from 2-3 months to the whole season. (Luis Díaz merely had his family kidnapped for over a month, and played on pure adrenaline for a while, before running out of zest.)

Equally, some of them were out on loan. And certainly not many of them were run to the point where they had nothing left in the tank, as almost no one played the complete season, while a lot of the international players sat on the bench this summer. (But which didn’t help Slot with preseason.)

Klopp did get the best out of Caoimhín Kelleher, Conor Bradley (between the injuries), Bobby Clark, Jarell Quansah, Wataru Endō, James McConnell and others who, if they were all the backbone of the first XI this coming season, you would naturally expect Liverpool to finish outside the top six.

(Clark has been sold, others will go on loan. Any young player sold can be bought back within a certain time period as per club contract policy.)

Predictions are kinda silly, before we know half the context. But what we do know suggests Liverpool could be title contenders, and should finish in the top four; but there may be lots of strong teams this season.

(Meanwhile, Aston Villa’s great season now takes them into Newcastle 2023 territory: start playing in the Champions League, and see how that goes domestically when you’re not used to it.)

Part of the reason Arne Slot was appointed was his astonishing record at keeping players fit, despite high-intensity football, that manages to keep it tight at the back and create a ton of xG. He’s not some over-promoted middling manager; he’s the next wave of the best coaches in the world. He’s cutting edge, not some dull blade. Slot could still be a lesser manager than Klopp, but have an advantage just by keeping about £500m of talent fit.

In truth, I think Slot is now entering the “better than late Klopp” phase, as late Klopp was tired, and managers tend to run out of energy and ideas. And even Pep Lijnders had done six years, and was maybe getting stale. Last season was also hugely emotionally draining from January onwards (not to mention the Díaz dramas, on and off the pitch), and maybe by the spring Liverpool hit the wall. Klopp going was a gut-blow to us all, even if it may prove to be 100% the right time.

Klopp was the best Liverpool manager since Bob Paisley, and it’s hard to separate Paisley, Bill Shankly and Klopp because of the different nature of their achievements. They are the three standout greats. Kenny Dalglish misses out due to no European football in the late ‘80s and Rafa Benítez didn’t quite land the league title. (Joe Fagan was not in the job long enough.)

Equally, not having a demonstrative teutonic manager who has upset just about every member of the PGMOL might lead to fewer dodgy decisions, certainly when every 50-50 (or 60-40) goes against you, if the ref absolutely loathes your guts. According to a neutral source, Liverpool had the most incorrect VAR decisions go against them last season, too. Maybe Slot won’t have that to deal with?

Then, the idea that replacing successful managers is ‘impossible’; something Paisley made light of after 1974, when the manager seemed truly irreplaceable.

Surely it’s like replacing a great player: you get good replacements and bad ones, and it’s about doing your homework.

If anything, Slot’s football is a bit more ultra-modern than Klopp’s, which is part of the natural cycle of football and how the very best gradually become also-rans. Few are realising that Slot and his staff spent a month studiously studying the methods of Klopp and Pep Lijnders –– via videos of the games and myriad training sessions –– and took what they liked, and will tweak things to their own slightly newer and inventive ways.

Those players still have all that Kloppian experience and knowledge, but so many are aged 18-23 (and several were new to the club or the team) that even if Roy Hodgson was brought out of retirement, he’d still not manage to stop Harvey Elliott, Curtis Jones, Jarell Quansah, Conor Bradley, Ryan Gravenberch, Dominic Szoboszlai and others improving –– simply by their gaining experience, muscle, stamina, and sprint speed, allied to continued decision-making developments that don’t mature in the male brain until the age of 25.

Again, replacing Klopp with someone who plays anti-football or low-possession football would perhaps take things backwards; but Slot is one of the managers that can increase what was already ultra-possession (average of 60%+ under Klopp), while also not sacrificing quality at both ends.

The team may have slightly fewer shots (certainly fewer silly speculative ones), but will likely give up less at the back, and still be thrilling to watch.

Slot is an unknown quantity in England, but just because he’s bald and Dutch, he’s not another Erik ten Hag, whose success was based on silver-spoon opportunities by association (once he worked under Pep Guardiola he got all the advantages), whereas Slot came up the hard way, and did it on a far lower budget by improving players. Slot isn’t going to go and ask for £80m to be spent on the next Antony. To me (based on seeing far less than United fans will), ten Hag seems dull and defensive as a character, but also with a weird, hollow braggadocio; a bit like [a younger] Brendan Rodgers. He seems a bit ‘off’.

Erik ten Hag talks about winning trophies being ‘what he does’, but domestic trophies only count for big clubs if they’re also doing extremely well in the league or the Champions League. Even in 2008 it couldn’t save Juande Ramos, and that was just at Spurs. If you win the FA Cup but lose 20 games in the season, you are not a good team, but a lucky team. The modern game isn’t about domestic cups.

What Klopp did with the kids last season in the League Cup was ultra-special for that very reason –– the kids gave it the mark of ‘not just another big club winning a domestic cup’. The Reds also kept a title challenge going until late in the season, as well as two other cup runs, but the injuries took their toll.

By contrast, Man United’s goal difference and xG Difference (which I think ranked 15th) showed a really poor side, that could win some games with talent at both ends. Again, they could (should!) be better this season, especially if they too avoid as many injuries. They continue to spend big, whereas Liverpool have spent years spending smart.

(Scouting 608 full-backs gets you Aaron Wan-Bissaka for £50m who goes to West Ham for £15m. That said, I do rate Rasmus Højlund, even if he hasn’t quite clicked, and could see the appeal of Kobbie Mainoo within about five minutes of his debut. They have a lot of good young players too.)

No signings, and I’ll enjoy watching Liverpool’s elite younger players come of age, and the team work its new forms of magic. I’ll find things to enjoy.

But part of a rebuild is just time, and shared experience, in games, and more vitally, in detailed training, via an elite coaching staff. Plus, any new signing has to settle, and may take a year, so you can’t always factor in their impact to the coming season. And Liverpool already have a lot of shared understandings and a sense of belonging, via the youngsters coming through the system.

When Liverpool signed Ryan Gravenberch a couple of weeks into last season, he arrived after a year without much football, and was starting to look the part in red, before he was taken out in the League Cup final by a man Liverpool had recently bid £110m for (“FSG tightwads”.) Gravenberch, having just turned 22, remains skilful, athletic, quick and 6’3”, with the kind of all-round skillset that can be moulded into numerous roles; as shown in his teens at Ajax. Now settled in England, he can be a totally different player.

He’s not a brave tackler, but nor were other players Slot worked with at Feyenoord until he found ways to change that. But he also got them intercepting, reading the game, picking things off.

Liverpool will have a bench full of players who would start for very good teams. Like Klopp, Slot seems to like to use subs, so again, a nice continuity there; the ability to change things, and an eagerness to make the most of fresher legs and new dynamics.

There’s a lot of pace and directness on the bench, in Bradley, Doak (if not loaned), and possibly Darwin Núñez if Jota starts, and some real game-changers. (If Elliott doesn’t start, he’s so good at changing games from the bench, and could easily force his way into the team, he’s that good and only going to get better. If he replaces Szoboszlai, then the latter can offer elite pace and talent from the bench.)

Gravenberch is just one example of someone who could easily treble their impact, and as such, my prediction remains that the team has an outside chance of the title as things stand ... but that the Reds perhaps have an equal chance of any of the top six positions, in that, as one example, no one knows what the hell Chelsea will produce (as they spend money they don’t seem to have, and have already signed more players in two years than Liverpool have since Rodgers was manager).

If it’s a season where the Big Six mostly all beat the other 14, then it could be a very high points-scoring campaign at the top end, and you could have a strong season and finish 6th, or 3rd, or 1st. (Man City could suffer punishments, but we all know that they won’t.)

In 2017, I said I felt Klopp –– at the time being doubted –– could turn Liverpool into a 90-point team. Little did I know that he’d hit 97 and still not win the league, and then 92 and the same happen, either side of winning it with 99. I never saw three Champions League finals on the immediate horizon, and as with 2005 vs 2007, probably playing better in the ones that were lost than were won (football is random).

I’m neither an optimistic nor a pessimist, but spend a lot of time and thought trying to be as realistic as possible. That’s my raison d'être (translation: determined raisin).

Maybe Gary Neville will be ‘right’, just as he was when he said [in December 2023] that Spurs would finish above Liverpool last season … right?

August 16th, 2024