Rúben Amorim - It Could Be Him?

He seems the best "all round" candidate, and Liverpool like a bit of Portugal

I found Martin Samuel’s weekend take on Rúben Amorim in the Times very weird.

There was also a dig at using data, suggesting that the lack of a human touch might have put Xabi Alonso off, when the same process was used to procure Jürgen Klopp, and the human touch was what lured Klopp once the data had been run.

On Amorim, as part of an article that first focused on Gareth Southgate and England, the gist was that his team got thrashed by Man City, and Liverpool need someone who can compete with Guardiola (like Klopp has so well).

“Would Amorim be a match for Pep?

“Rúben Amorim is the new favourite for the Liverpool job. His Sporting Lisbon team eliminated Arsenal on penalties from the Europa League last season, which was impressive, although both matches ended drawn and Mikel Arteta started without Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard in the second leg.

“Nevertheless, still a shock. Not so much Amorim’s meeting with Manchester City in the Champions League in 2022. At home in the first leg, Sporting were 4-0 down after 44 minutes, many in the crowd walked out and some of those that remained began applauding the opposition’s players, even those that used to play for Benfica. And there is enormous financial disparity between City and Sporting, and some will argue the coaches could swap places and the result would be the same. Not sure about that.

“A potential Premier League punishment notwithstanding, while Pep Guardiola remains, Liverpool are up against one of the greatest minds in the history of the game. Nobody should ever underestimate Klopp’s achievement in combating him, and any successor will need to be every bit Klopp’s match.”

What’s odd about this is that, while City have a big financial advantage over Liverpool, it’s a chasm from City to a club like Sporting. And Amorim was just 37 at the time; even now he’s only 39, so has scope to improve.

Amorim had just helped Sporting to their first league title in 20 years; an achievement Guardiola has never had to face, having only inherited teams who’d won the league in recent seasons at Barca, Bayern and City.

Samuel can say that you could swap coaches and “not be sure about that”, but what’s clear is that Sporting, with Pep Guardiola, would not cope with Liverpool and Klopp, and I’d take Amorim managing City to beat a Portuguese team managed by Guardiola.

Liverpool routinely rout the best Portuguese teams. What does that have to do with anything? Head-to-heads are often not that important, and one single head-to-head, to extrapolate from, is like saying that Jayden Danns will score 1,500 goals for Liverpool if he plays 500 games as he has two goals already from about 60 minutes of football. While it would be nice, the world doesn’t work that way.

Sam Allardyce won a game with Crystal Palace against Klopp’s Liverpool, at Anfield. To extrapolate anything from that is to expect that staring intently at a pound coin will turn it into the Brink’s-Mat gold bullion.

Porto are a powerhouse in the Primeira Liga, and the Reds have generally pasted them. Aside from a couple of meaningless draws, where the Reds comfortably progressed via the other legs, these are the scores:

• 28 Sep 2021, Porto 1–5 Liverpool

• 4 Nov 2021, Liverpool 2–0 Porto

• 5 Apr 2022, Benfica 1–3 Liverpool

• 9 Apr 2019, Liverpool 2–0 Porto

• 17 Apr 2019, Porto 1–4 Liverpool

• 14 Feb 2018, Porto 0–5 Liverpool

I’ve no idea who their managers were without going back and looking them up, but they should not be mocked for not beating a strong Liverpool side over two legs; indeed, getting well beaten.

Liverpool’s budget is far closer to Man City’s than Sporting Lisbon’s ever was. Sporting were reforged from financial ruin under Amorim, and how any team in outside the true elite fares against Man City across a week or two is almost ludicrous.

And also, if we’re going to pick one-off games or ties:

• Klopp’s Liverpool lost 5-0 at Man City, and 4-0 at City, and 4-1 at Anfield.

• Guardiola, likewise, lost 3-0 at Anfield, 5-1 on aggregate in the Champions League, and were 4-1 down at Anfield, so on.

Klopp’s Dortmund, as champions, lost their first league game against Guardiola’s Bayern 3-0 at home, by which time Bayern were also taking their best players. (Dortmund won the next one 3-0 away at Bayern but lost the league by some distance.)

Dortmund lost the cup final 2-0 to Bayern. Bayern did the double over Dortmund the next season, Klopp’s final campaign, aided by having snaffled Robert Lewandowski, at which point, even Klopp was just blown away by the mixture of Bayern’s mega-bucks, the snaffling of his best players and the fact that Guardiola is an elite manager.

Prior to England, and including in England, several of Klopp’s wins have been in one-off Super Cup/Community Shields. Klopp had the better team in 2013, before the talent drain to Bayern.

At times, either Klopp or Guardiola could not cope with or compete against Guardiola or Klopp. To judge either in those periods where one had the upper hand would be daft.

All-time Klopp vs. Guardiola meetings: 30.

• Guardiola won: 11.

• Klopp won: 12.

• Draws: 7.

So I don’t get this logic.

Amorim hasn’t had many chances to go up against Guardiola to redress the balance, so he has a sample size of virtually no games at all, as the massive underdog, with a team that probably cost less than Jack Grealish.

Klopp and Guardiola met almost consistently when each was on a firmer footing, with Klopp established in the league first, and Guardiola then coming in with more money.

Guardiola has always had more money, but had even more money compared with Sporting.

Amorim Now the Main Main?

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