Some Additional Thoughts On Monday's Big Read On TTT
Postscript, Wednesday 10th February
Postscript, Wednesday 10th February
Since publishing this piece, which was written in one sitting on Monday (fuelled by adrenaline and caffeine, before I spent the next 48 hours feeling like I needed ice baths and stretches), I've seen a few good bits of information that further bolster my arguments, or which add a new dimension.
(If 12,000 words were still not enough for you, here's 1,500 more.)
Obviously, and tragically, news has just been released that Jürgen Klopp's mother has died, and rumours (in January) of her death were said to be behind his more depressed demeanour of late – it's bad enough having a loved one be ill and die during a global pandemic, and even worse to be miles away and barred from attending the subsequent funeral due to flight restrictions. Unlike his father, at least his mother lived to see Klopp conquer the whole world.
But this is a very sad time, and it puts into context the difficulty of anyone in football working abroad, miles from their families. Just as life is tougher for almost everyone right now, it's tougher for footballers and football managers too, as even money and fame do not solve all your problems, or alleviate the loneliness that can arise. Different people have different advantages in life, but there is no such thing as privilege when it comes to tragedy, grief, pain, illness and depression.
Anyway, in relation to the Reds' struggles this season, the analysis from Monday Night Football is well worth watching:
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In contrast to Roy Keane's unhinged ranting, this is a good use of a data by Jamie Carragher and Sky (and some fair comments by Chris Coleman), and shows how hard Liverpool's core players have been pushing for over two and a half seasons (and some of them were pushing hard before then, too).
It shows the particular strain Andy Robertson has been under. Of course, Kostas Tsimikas was bought to ease that pressure, but he's missed a lot of the season. No one noted him as being a big loss, when he was out for months, because he's yet to really get a game – but his purpose, as well as to challenge for the position, was to keep Robertson fresher. No wonder Robertson looks knackered.
While Jamie Carragher makes many good points, he also says Liverpool need new players in certain positions: a centre-back, a replacement for Wijnaldum, and a striker.
I would argue that Diogo Jota and Thiago, whom he doesn't mention, are part of the move forward, with the centre-back solution he says is required also already at the club in Ozan Kabak (although he does say that Kabak might prove the solution; obviously we don't know how that will pan out, but the potential is there).
Adding too many new players can be as troublesome as not adding enough. Liverpool won the title without adding a single first-team player, and the Reds must not throw out the shared understanding on a whim.
Given the time it can take new players to settle (often a season), and young players to develop, this is a good chance to integrate Thiago, Jota, Tsimikas, Kabak, Davies and, of course, Curtis Jones. Pain now can equal gain later.
So unlike Carragher, I don't necessarily see a need to rebuild or invest big money, as I made clear in this piece – and with the club losing a ton of money every week, it may not be possible to even think about any big buys until Covid-19 is fully under control; and with new variants arising that may take longer than expected.
(Hence my suggestion that selling Salah might be one solution, even if it's not a solution I'm saying I'm eager to see – I'm simply suggesting that it might prove a good time to sell a super-high-value player just as he turns 29, so that, as Bob Paisley used to say, he loses his legs on someone else's pitch; and by losing his legs, that's not to be taken literally, as a lot more people seem to take metaphors literally these days... At the same time, if he's happy to stay at Liverpool and the club want to keep him and build around him, that's great too. While certain players can remain hugely effective at 33/34 and beyond, they are still often the exception; and so some change to a forward line all hitting 30 around the same time might be required – albeit Jota could nail down a place next season. My sense is that Mané is still improving, and I think Firmino, as a clever player who doesn't rely on pace, can remain part of the attacking equation – albeit I still believe there's a potential role back in his old position of attacking midfielder. While there's no one single 29/30-year-old Liverpool player I'd want to see go, if one were to join Wijnaldum in leaving, it would at least allow the average age to be lowered a little.)
Since writing the piece on Monday I discovered this graphic, which shows that, rather than slow Liverpool down, Thiago does quite the opposite. (I’ll include a screenshot as well as embedding the tweet.)
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While his passes are not played under as much pressure as some others on the chart, he is in a zone all on his own on the graph, as he attempts more progressive passes than any other Premier League midfielder – with a healthy mix of recycling possession along with those ambitious passes. Liverpool had games last season where they made over 900 passes, so I think it's wrong to focus on how often the Reds pass the ball since Thiago has come into the side, not least because it varies with game-state.
At times, last season and this, Liverpool's possession was slower in the first half of games, as they sought to control the early stages (in contrast to the blitzing of the earlier Klopp years), then grew more dynamic after the break.
I'm not pretending that Thiago has been utterly flawless, and his tackling still remains an issue, but even with my eyes, closely watching him game after game – and thus before seeing the chart – I felt the notion that he slows Liverpool down to be flawed thinking.
If the data had shown me to be wrong, then I'd admit that; but instead it just backs up my assertion from Monday, and before. This is a player still yet to play in anything close to resembling Liverpool's best side (bar ten minutes of the game at Everton until Virgil van Dijk went off injured, in what was Thiago's only start for many months due to suffering to his own knee-crushing assault), and any understandings he builds up in the next six months can be taken into next season, along with an adjustment to when he can and cannot tackle in the Premier League.
On the topic of injuries, TTT subscriber Lubo shared the following comment, which again backs up my assertion – albeit my assertion was based largely on empirical evidence, logic and reasoning (the further down the pecking order you are forced to go, the logically weaker the solutions will be) and not any actual data or academic studies.
"A point on the injuries to Gomez and Matip on top of that of Virgil. Ryan O’Hanlon writes an email newsletter and in his latest one, on Liverpool (he is a fan), he mentioned a study of NFL teams that looked at defenses and found out that it’s not an injury to you your first-stringer (top defender) that kills you, it’s the injury to the second and third backs ups that sink you, as that means you now have to play your fourth and fifth options and those are just never that good. Had Gomez and Matip stayed fit and healthy, and allowed us to play Fab and Hendo in midfield more often, it would be a completely different story. Alas. Here is a link to the study, btw, though it is paywalled.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-how-fragile-is-defense-a-look-ateffect-of-stars-versus-depth-on-game-outcomes"
I've also seen the example of how Roy Keane's Man United crumbled after Rio Ferdinand was suspended for failing to attend a drugs' test, winning just four in a run of 13 league games to throw away the title in 2003/04 (and they also did so in 1997/98), so Keane seems to have an incredibly short memory, as well as a short fuse.
Anyway, I'm sure there are other issues and angles that I haven't covered, in that the more thorough you try to be, the more you realise there is that you just can't address. When so many factors are at play, it becomes impossible to say that any one thing is causing a problem. I would reiterate that to remove elite heading, searing pace, top-class skill and passing, and a ton of experience and leadership abilities, from any side would cause issues. Shorn of such qualities, any natural shortcomings – lack of height, lack of blistering pace, less awesome passing – in the remaining players and in the stand-ins (and indeed, their stand-ins) are going to be exposed.
So for now, I hope the article remains a fairly in-depth look at some of the major issues, and this postscript helps to flesh it out a little more. I expect I'll be writing a few more articles this season (if not this week), and hope that some of those pieces revolve around a big change in the Reds' luck, if nothing else. You might make some of your own luck in sport, but a Black Swan-load of bad luck is hard for anyone or any team to overcome.