The Midweek Maxi #12: Bring Back Rushie, Gerrard's Thunderbolt & Black Swans

Our new Liverpool FC weekly compendium. News. Stats. Views. Debate. Links. Data. Insights. Delights.

To read about why we’ve replaced Free Friday with The Midweek Maxi, see the intro to the first edition.

So far the bumper weekly roundup is going down extremely well with paying subscribers:

This week:

• Excerpts and links to the different pieces we've published across the TTT Substack network, prior to the paywall kicking in;

• Then, some of the best comments from the site this past week;

• Next, Daniel Zambartas’ bumper LFC News, Media & Transfer Round-Up;

• And then finally, bit of Midweek Moby (the TTT stalwart, not the beautiful bald middle-aged man), for the third mini-article of new writing within this week’s Maxi.

Job done! (Oh, and it’s also a discussion thread for the issues raised.)

Note: the Maxi may exceed the email size limit on Substack, but the whole piece can be read online by paying subscribers.

TTT Network Roundup

Links and excerpts to articles on the various TTT sites, which are run by different people and require separate subscriptions to this, the TTT Main Hub.

The Main Hub

With pre-season now two matches old, and the Reds averaging four goals a game at this point, Paul takes a look at our forwards and the art of finishing.

Núñez With Mojo (and Mo, Jo & Gakpo) Means Calmness Amid Chaos – Analysing Liverpool's Strikers

Núñez will on average get more chances than Gakpo, as he's a Shot Monster who goes through the middle (and who actually looks lost when he drops deep, but can also look lost when all he tries to do is run in behind and there’s no support and no pass to him on); Gakpo will convert more from a lower sample, and both ended up as one-in-three scorers.

Núñez created chances for others with his pace, especially out wide, but Gakpo knitted things together in the way that Roberto Firmino always had, and exceeded Firmino – a classic one-in-three scorer with Liverpool and Brazil – within the 99th percentile for tackles per 90 (as a proxy of pressing, which is vital to the way Jürgen Klopp's forwards must play), whereas Núñez was mid-level, and wayward. Gakpo is an elite presser, who of course, can also play as a winger and a no.8 if required.

By the end of last season I would have considered selling Núñez to fund the midfield rebuild (who knew the Reds would get £52m plus add-ons for two ageing midfielders?!), especially as he hadn't learnt English and looked to be regressing; but equally, as I said at the start of the summer, if he could be moulded to the way the Reds need to play (and only the coaching staff would know the probability of that), then obviously his talents could come to the fore.

It's not that he's a ‘shit Andy Carroll’, as he’s far better than Carroll; it’s that he's an emotional player who tried too hard at times, and looked confused at others. But at his best, he was a force of nature. For all the joyous chaos of his pace and movement, the key to any sport is to be calm in the moment of execution. Less pressure and noise this season may help, as will learning English.

Then there's the question of if he's better suited to playing away games, as the Reds may be on the break a bit more (ditto being a sub for when leading). He can play in the box, but his best moments, as in this preseason, have often come on the break (with a nice touch that Mo Salah seems to play him in with precision, perhaps unable himself to burst forward quite as quickly).

I deep-dived a lot of data at the end of the season regarding finishing vs xG (for a piece that I'm now delivering here), but also the all-round striker data.

An issue, as I will show, was that so many of Liverpool's attackers (and midfielders) undershot their xG. Or rather, the two main goalscorers did so, wasting record numbers of big chances.

Weirdly, Firmino, Gakpo, Díaz, Jones and, very belatedly, Diogo Jota (a notoriously streaky finisher), exceeded their xG – Jota went from awful figures to excellent figures with a burst of goals – but each only played chunks of the season.

In other words, good chances were missed at a rate that left the Reds with fewer goals than expected, which in turn with the slow midfield, put the defence under more pressure (as game-state was rarely made comfortable). I've found a really clear way of showing this, which I'll share along with other analysis.

The Zen Den

On the back of a comment from a subscriber on the Main Hub, Paul does his trademark takedown of the nonsensical narratives that some media outlets and pundits pedal - seemingly every season - before a ball is kicked.

The Joys of Clueless Pundits Writing Off Liverpool

The TalkSport argument is a bit like saying Liverpool should get Ian Rush back, because he scored 346 goals for the club. He guarantees you goals.

The whole point of last season was that those midfielders, to get all poetically intertextual, are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven, but that which they are, they are.

To finish quoting Tennyson: heroic hearts, Made weak by time and fate (and the lure of filthy lucre).

Or, old men, who once gave great service, but whose legs had gone.

Over the years, one by one, there fell away the zest and verve of Jordan Henderson (who seems to have chosen greed over legacy, but who was no longer the heartbeat of the team), Fabinho, James Milner, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Naby Keïta, and Arthur Melo, whose career arc at Liverpool rose and fell within a full 13 minutes.

(Anyone still craving the once-great Gini Wijnaldum should note that he's nearly 33, and the Reds were superb without him in 2021/22. The effects of 2021/22 should not be underestimated when relating to the struggles last season, either, with injuries taking their toll, too.)

Once the lighthouse, Fabinho was truly abysmal last season; rescued only in the run-in by the tactical shift, but was still so late to so many tackles that a few occurred the day after the game. He'd become a walking yellow card. I recall just two impressive games in the whole season, and while he may have been rejuvenated, he was never the best athlete, as he turns 30.

Henderson remained a leader off the pitch, but who seems to have sold out the virtues he signalled; and anyone who wants out is no longer committed to the cause. A great leader, until he wasn't. Milner would have been handy to keep as a player-coach, but Oxlade-Chamberlain, Keïta and Melo simply never played. It's like worrying about the Beatles losing Pete Best.

This Red Planet

Here’s a brilliant chapter from This Red Planet ahead of a new article to be published tomorrow on TRP looking at the an academic study called ‘Football as Soft Power: The Political Use of Football in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’, which outlines the historical context, the key differences between each nations’ approach to sportswashing, their past intentions coupled with their plans for the future.

How the Autopsy of Black Swans Became a Celebration of Overcoming the Odds

Dynasty

In this next instalment of the series, we take a look at the post-Istanbul seasons as Rafa Benitez’s team reached the 2006 FA Cup Final and then the 2007 Champions League final.

Originally a series of articles covering the period 1992 to Klopp’s arrival in 2017, it was written by TTT Subscriber Anthony Stanley, serialised on The Tomkins Times and then published by TTT as a book called A BANQUET WITHOUT WINE - A Quarter-Century of Liverpool FC in the Premier League Era.

A Quarter of a Century of Liverpool FC in the Premier League Era, 1992-2017, Part 10

But what happened next, no Liverpool fan will forget. The strike from Gerrard has become part of the very fabric of the legend of the club and cemented his iconic status. In his recent autobiography, the Liverpool captain put words to the almost surreal train of events that occurred:

‘…Danny Gabbidon won the challenge and headed clear. The ball bounced a long way from goal, once, then twice. Almost magnetically, the ball arced towards me. I was thirty-five yards away. I was too tired to take possession and set off on a surging run towards goal. Instinctively, I decided to hit it first time. I caught it on the rise, dregs of energy rippling down from my clenched right leg and my crashing boot into the flight of the ball.

I caught it like a dream. I followed its searing blur. I hit it so perfectly it was hard to track it in the air. My shot flew and flew. A few seconds stretched and then…bang!

The West Ham net billowed and shook in shock. I had to look again. Had I really just done that? Goal!’

Following the thunderbolt from Liverpool’s captain, it was Pepe Reina’s turn to fortify himself in Reds’ affections with a near miraculous save from Nigel Reo-Coker before performing heroics during the penalty shoot-out as the Spaniard saved three of the Hammers’ efforts.

Summer optimism was rampant as Gerrard lifted the FA Cup; a World Cup was in the post and Kopites looked forward to the next season with huge buoyancy. Following the thrilling cup success and the nature of the fantastic end to the league season, Liverpool fans were tentatively anticipating a genuine title challenge for the following campaign.

The Transfer Hub

Finally a look at Florentino Luis, a potential replacement for Fabinho (should he leave), from Mizgan.

Florentino Luís - The Perfect Replacement for Fabinho at Liverpool

We know how successful Liverpool were when Fabinho was at his best in defensive midfield. With him dropping off and now going to Saudi, it would be hard for Liverpool to find a like-for-like readymade replacement.

But, the numbers and performance levels of Florentino Luís tell us that he could be the solution to this problem. 

Now, the caveat is that there are reports saying the 23-year-old has a £103m release clause in his contract. Now, that is crazy money for any defensive midfielder. Is there a way around that clause for the Reds to sign him for something cheaper? I am sure the club is working on it if that is a possibility. 

A YouTube compilation to end this article with - link.