The Midweek Maxi #14: Pivotal Windows, Penalty Droughts & Plethoras of Goals

Our new Liverpool FC weekly compendium. News. Stats. Views. Debate. Links. Data. Insights. Delights.

To read about why we’ve replaced Free Friday with The Midweek Maxi, see the intro to the first edition.

So far the bumper weekly roundup is going down extremely well with paying subscribers:

This week:

• Excerpts and links to the different pieces we've published across the TTT Substack network, prior to the paywall kicking in;

• Then, some of the best comments from the site this past week;

• Next, Daniel Zambartas’ bumper LFC News, Media & Transfer Round-Up;

• And then finally, bit of Midweek Moby (the TTT stalwart, not the beautiful bald middle-aged man), for the third mini-article of new writing within this week’s Maxi.

Job done! (Oh, and it’s also a discussion thread for the issues raised.)

Note: the Maxi may exceed the email size limit on Substack, but the whole piece can be read online by paying subscribers.

TTT Network Roundup

Links and excerpts to articles on the various TTT sites, which are run by different people and require separate subscriptions to this, the TTT Main Hub.

The Main Hub

First is the frustration surrounding the Reds’ approach to the Lavia negotiations and how it might impact us as the season starts.

Is Phil Wang Negotiating the Roméo Lavia Deal for Liverpool?

So far, it's one deal done via a buyout clause (after Julian "Ashley" Ward sealed the other deal, also for a very smart buyout) and some time-wasting over Romeo Lavia, whether he eventually arrives or not; a saga which I find unusually baffling, hence this article, and which brought to mind Phil Wang's haggling.

(And to be honest, I feel like “just pay the £50m”, or at least get close to the asking price.)

It's also written, without knowledge of overall numbers, from the assumption that there appeared to be a budget for multiple midfielders this summer, with a no.6 the long-standing priority, and as such, the late, bumper-priced sale of a no.6 and a no.6/8 (and the big-game experience lost in the process), surely added unexpectedly to the pot, that included shifting seven or eight of the higher earners off the books (with less income from a lack of Champions League football covered by wage clauses for existing and new players).

The key caveat is that if Klopp is happy with everything I see as questionable (and he is 'cool' if certain targets are not procured), then anything I see as questionable is rendered moot.

Again, I'm trying to provide an analysis of the situation from the public information, and it may be wrong.

I don’t think signings totally make or break seasons; and the squad is talented and young, and most players will improve. Klopp will make a good team, regardless.

But this is clearly a pivotal summer – that’s not just hype. The mass exodus of players makes that clear; and there was a mass exodus before the Saudi ship-jumpers.

If a compromise on Lavia is reached in the next few days, all this is mostly moot; you then just have to evaluate the opportunity cost of not tying up the deal sooner. But that will be fine, and we draw a line under it. Player signed, job done. Yet it continues to drag on; all the while, alternative targets join other clubs or sign new deals at their existing clubs.

So this is all just my opinion on the way things appear, and no transfer window can be judged before it is complete; but then again, not even when it is complete, either – lest Everton be the champions of England every year since 2017.

Objective Data: Liverpool Are Refereed VERY VERY Differently To Rival Clubs

*My biases are clear, but the data should speak for itself*

Neutrals can ignore any of my subjective commentary and focus on the objective data, if any neutrals care. (No, I thought not!)

I do also think that a few of the referees who seemed to have a serious problem with either Liverpool FC – or more likely, Jürgen Klopp – have retired; but some with very iffy data still remain in place. By far the iffiest is Paul Tierney, whose data is worth examining more closely, but this is about referees in general; albeit Tierney is part of a cluster of refs whose ‘preferences’ seem apparent (see the data).

Indeed, location of where the ref is from/lives and their age remain absolutely huge factors, and this needs independent research, and explanation and action.

It seems that refs are not “unbiased”; at least based on where they live or where they grew up, even if they don't support a team from there (which could mean immense social pressures when it comes to making decisions; random controls suggest this is not 'just one of those things', but a true warping of how a referee feels he must make decisions, or chooses to make decisions).

I'm aware that the officiating stuff can get boring for some, and I wish I felt it was a case of “you win some, you lose some”, but on Big Decisions, Liverpool "lose some, win some, lose some" at that kind of 2:1 ratio a lot of the time. Over the bigger datasets covered, and every league game from 2015-2023, we're talking about hundreds of matches per club for “things to even out”.

Not that everything should be equal in life (you can't guarantee outcomes), but I'll get onto that. I don't want favourable refereeing, just competent refereeing, and unbiased refereeing.

Also, I've not looked at things like win percentages when referees do teams, but Big Decisions (penalties, red cards) for and against. (Plus some stuff on smaller decisions, i.e. yellow cards.) Referees can't make a team win or lose, most of the time; but they can influence results, clearly.

A penalty or a red card massively skews the likely outcome of a game. So bear that in mind.

Plus, I hope this is the last time I mention the officiating this season, beyond dealing with a normal distribution of good luck and bad luck.

Anyway, the free-to-all article is on the embedded link above.

The Zen Den

Next up is Paul’s look ahead to the season, and why we should be positive about our chances, despite the transfer window frustrations.

Season Preview for Liverpool FC – Valid Reasons For Optimism

My issue with Doak in his first senior appearances was how much taller, stronger, faster and cannier senior players are even compared to kids who – when Doak was 16 – were 18 or 19.

But I'd never seen a player go past youth players as easily, frequently and unpredictably (in terms of which route he took).

My dad always told me as a kid that the first yards were in your head, but also drilled into me pace off the mark. I don't think I've ever seen a quicker player off the mark than Doak, and he's not even as strong or fast as he will be, with a good amount to add with age. (Unlike some other kids, I don't want him to grow, as he seems to have a perfect low centre of gravity.)

This preseason, senior pros couldn't stop him.

I'm not sure he got tackled once. He gets into great positions from his dribbles, then hits good areas, but so far, it's often against deep-lying defences where the odds of clearances are far greater. There's little room to find the inch-perfect assist, as this is not big-space football on the break (which will suit him); but he's getting closer.

That he came on so early against Darmstadt when the other kids did not shows that he's now deemed 'ready'. To have his pace and directness as a sub, along with that of Darwin Núñez, should terrify any team who seem vulnerable to a quick breakaway.

Conor Bradley, after a great season on loan at Bolton, has missed vital games with an injury, and Bajcetic, who had injury issues with the U18s, struggled to last 75 minutes each game last season; clearly impressing one week, then low on intensity the next, as befits a skinny 18-year-old, who was just 17 when the season started.

An issue for Bajcetic is that he is not quite ready to be a regular starter, albeit purely due to age and physical capacity. He has the maturity, the height, the intelligence – but not the muscle power.

And missing preseason puts him at a disadvantage. The same applies to Tyler Morton, who didn't have the chance to build on an impressive loan with Blackburn. He needed to be assessed in preseason games, and was not available.

Jarell Quansah is looking physically ready, but having turned 20 this year, will obviously be raw and make mistakes. I think he's the best purely homegrown centre-back in eons; maybe since Jamie Carragher. He's another positive. It's always hardest to tell with centre-backs, as it’s the latest outfield position to thrive in, but there's something about him.

This Red Planet

Here’s a look back at the record breaking season of 2021/22 - and the sheer volume of goals we scored across a remarkable campaign.

Goals Galore - A New Club Record

In a fast start to the season, Jota and Mané added two more in the next game, at home to Burnley, whilst a Salah penalty rescued a point at home to Chelsea in the third match, as the Reds sat third on goal difference, with Manchester United top, also with seven points. 

In all competitions, the first sixteen games saw 12 wins, four draws and, perhaps not required for the mathematically minded amongst you, no defeats. By the time the Reds travelled to West Ham in early November, they had scored 42 goals. They added two more that day, but the team balance in that initial third of the season was not quite right, with opponents allowed numerous good chances; conceding three goals to David Moyes’ team, to suffer a defeat, and shipping two or more goals against AC Milan (eventual Italian champions), Brentford, Manchester City (understandable), Atlético Madrid (also understandable), and Brighton – a draw from a 2-0 advantage, where, back for a game in my old season ticket seat, I saw Mané make it 3-0 and the huge sigh of ‘this is done’ to fill the stadium, only for VAR to chalk it off (rightly so, on replays), and for the whole stadium to deflate. West Ham, Brighton and Brentford scored a total of eight against the Reds in those three games.

To me, the midfield balance seemed a bit wonky, with what looked like one holding midfielder (Fabinho) and two more advanced midfielders, one in a kind of inside-left position and the other (Harvey Elliott or Jordan Henderson) the inside-right. In the absence of Gini Wijnaldum, there was no one in the midfield to keep possession in a simple but reliable manner, and the new formation allowed for attacking overloads on both flanks, where Andy Robertson and Mané on the left, and Trent Alexander-Arnold and Salah on the right, would be joined by a wide central midfielder, to make various passing triangles possible. As an attacking strategy, it worked wonderfully, but obviously it left the defence – itself a bit rusty – a bit more exposed.

Right from the start of preseason, Liverpool were pressing hard and attacking with pace and fury, but it left the team a bit more vulnerable to counterattacks; especially with all of the Reds’ centre-backs either coming back from serious injury (Virgil van Dijk, Joël Matip and Joe Gomez), or in the case of Ibrahima Konaté, new to the league. Matip had a full preseason, but van Dijk did not. Yet the Dutchman started the season in the team, alongside Matip, and had to find his match-legs game by game. It often takes months of playing after almost a year out before fitness and sharpness return to elite levels, and in van Dijk’s case, he was now 30, which meant some natural slowing down could be masked (or made worse) by the ACL damage. It looked like he might never be the player he was before the injury.

Fears of permanent decline, however, were arrested by the time 2022 was well underway, as his individual statistics improved massively (as did the team’s overall defensive metrics), to reflect his return to peak condition, with the pace of old still there when called for. Alongside him, Matip was consistently good, and Konaté impressed on virtually every outing; yet the defence only really solidified after a 2-2 draw at Chelsea in the opening game of 2022, with a succession of clean sheets and a maximum of one goal conceded in games right up until April. (When Man City twice scored two goals against the Reds, in a league draw at the Etihad, and a Liverpool win in the FA Cup semi-final; and in between those two matches, Benfica scored three at Anfield, albeit against a heavily-rotated Liverpool side 3-1 up from the first leg and coasting into the semi-finals.) 

Dynasty

In this next instalment of the series, Anthony looks at a striker who became a club legend and a Kop hero, and quite possibly the best in the world at the time.

Originally written by TTT Subscriber Anthony Stanley, this major series was first serialised on The Tomkins Times and then published by TTT as a book, called A BANQUET WITHOUT WINE - A Quarter-Century of Liverpool FC in the Premier League Era.

Part 12 - A Quarter of a Century of Liverpool FC in the Premier League Era, 1992-2017.

Vivacity traded for vacuity.

But the glorious memories would always remain. They could be hidden away as we nursed our outrage at being jilted and bruised but maybe, during a friendly that was an unofficial goodbye to Steven Gerrard (so many goodbyes), we could all take part in a group therapy session and remember that we were privileged to witness one of the greatest strikers on the planet plying his trade at Anfield.

In Champions League Dreams, Rafa Benítez had written about his pursuit of Torres:

“We knew, despite the presence of Dirk Kuyt and Peter Crouch, that if we were to progress as a club, we needed to make at least one headline signing, to capture a player that would make the rest of Europe sit up and take notice…we dissected some of the biggest names in European football until we had our one…(Torres) would become, at the time, the most expensive signing in Liverpool’s history. But we knew we had found the player we wanted, we needed. He had pace, he was good in the air and, most of all, he had tremendous hunger, to improve himself, to win trophies.”

For his part, the Spanish striker wrote in his autobiography of the sense of inexorable fate which led him to Anfield.

“When I was playing for Atletico Madrid against Real Sociedad I was battling with a defender and the captain’s armband I was wearing came loose and fell open. As it hung from my arm, you could see the message written on the inside, in English: “We’ll Never Walk Alone”…an eagle eyed photographer spotted the picture and I was immediately linked to Liverpool.”

It should be noted here that the legend emblazoned on the inside of the armband had nothing to do with Liverpool. It was a gesture between his close friends – not uncommon is Spain – in which they had all committed to getting a tattoo to highlight their solidarity. Torres was aware of the connotations to Anfield and didn’t wish to show disrespect to his employers and so they had settled on this method. At least this was the claim of the striker. But, regardless, Torres went on:

“Maybe that was the day I took my first step towards Anfield, or maybe it was because I already shared things with Liverpool. I identify with the values that define the club: hard work, struggle, humility, effort, tenacity, commitment, togetherness, unity, faith, the permanent desire to improve, to overcome all obstacles.”

The Transfer Hub

Finally, a look at Andre, who we’ve been linked with alongside Lavia in the past few days. Mizgan took a deep dive at the Brazilian midfielder.

Scouting Report: André Trindade, The Next Casemiro?

André - Brazil Serie A Nos. Ranked - 2022 and 2023 Season

In this section, we will take a look at André’s numbers in the league ranked among the defensive and deeper-lying midfielders in the division. We have a separate column for the 2022 and 2023 season. The reason behind choosing two seasons is to look at the consistency or lack of it in the numbers produced by the player. Moreover, the 2023 campaign is still ongoing. We wanted to have the numbers from a completed season to get a broader view.

As expected, André is leading in the passing metrics and has been consistent with the accuracy levels too. There is nothing much to talk about the aerial duels because he isn’t contesting much of them.

The defensive duel win rate has gone down this season considerably but there are still games to go to improve on that. The interception and possession-adjusted interception numbers are in good stead, further iterating his style of play to affect the game through interceptions without the ball.