The Midweek Maxi #17: Ponzi Schemes, Tierney Troubles & Núñez's Magic
Our new Liverpool FC weekly compendium. News. Stats. Views. Debate. Links. Data. Insights. Delights.
To read about why we’ve replaced Free Friday with The Midweek Maxi, see the intro to the first edition.
So far the bumper weekly roundup is going down extremely well with paying subscribers:
This week:
Excerpts and links to the different pieces we've published across the TTT Substack network, prior to the paywall kicking in;
Then, some of the best comments from the site this past week;
Next, Daniel Zambartas’ bumper LFC News, Media & Transfer Round-Up;
And then finally, bit of Midweek Moby (the TTT stalwart, not the beautiful bald middle-aged man), for the third mini-article of new writing within this week’s Maxi.
Job done! (Oh, and it’s also a discussion thread for the issues raised.)
Note: the Maxi may exceed the email size limit on Substack, but the whole piece can be read online by paying subscribers.
TTT Network Roundup
Links and excerpts to articles on the various TTT sites, which are run by different people and require separate subscriptions to this, the TTT Main Hub.
The Main Hub
There’s a huge variety - and value for money - on The Main Hub in the past few days, including deep dives on the PGMOL, Paul Tierney, the potential sale of Mo Salah and a bumper edition of the post-match analysis following the Reds brilliant ten-man show against Newcastle United. But first, and one of the reasons this was delayed until today, a look at our potential new signing Ryan Gravenberch.
Other players have better balance, body-shape, two-footedness, allied to physical and technical skills that would work in most areas.
So while Gravenberch wins the ball higher up and drives forward, he could do the same from the no.6 role; indeed, there's often more space to do so.
He can spray passes from deep, and as noted, if you're fast and can tackle, you can do a big chunk of the no.6 role.
This is the all-rounder midfielder radar I created this summer, and only Jude Bellingham’s looked ‘fuller’. I used height instead of aerial win% as the latter can vary from country to country, but height is a constant, and helpful in England. (But he’s also good in the air, and not just tall.)
One thing I noted all summer was how progressive carries seemed to be a key metric for players linked to the Reds.
That may have been more for the no.8s, but almost everyone I looked at had 90th+ percentile – or were rated very highly for take-ons, too, to leave a combination of beating players and driving forwards. Gravenberch also passes progressively too, and that was the only area where Fabinho was remotely creative (and even then, he was only mid-level)…
Rather than Gravenberch become the spare sub, I now foresee Endo as a utility player, given his experience as a no.8, a no.6, a centre-back and a left-back, and presumably able to play right-back too.
Indeed, I’d now call him Wataru Milner.
In England he may just lack the extra pace and strength to dominate in the way he did in Germany, and although he can work harder at those, nearing 31 means he's likely to lose a bit, not gain a bit.
He can become the new James Milner: stamina, professionalism, but maybe lacks the physicality and dynamism to excel as the no.6 in England; or at least may take some getting up to speed (based on his own comments about how much faster and stronger the players are over here).
There’s also the need for that type of player to come on for 20-30 minutes and press like hell.
It also occurs to me, once more, that intense training is vital to the way Klopp's teams prepare and also improve; and so not retaining Milner (whom Klopp wanted to keep) was a mistake, in my eyes, when you consider that on-pitch data won't measure how hard the XI (which will not include Milner) were pushed during the week by someone like Milly.
No training ground drills would be easy if you were against Milner, even if he was no longer a dominant big-pitch player.
You almost need specialist training-players, in the way the Reds have evolved to have just training goalkeepers; keepers given contracts simply to take part in training. There are now older pros on playing contracts with the U21s (Jay Spearing), so the next option is a training player for the first-team; but who can obviously still do a job in the XI if needed.
You can criticise the tactics behind going for a player set on Chelsea (or the tactics in the whole overlapping Lavia affair), but if breaking the British record isn't making enough money available to buy a quality player, I don't know what is.
The transfer system is also complicated by Jürgen Klopp's own fastidiousness (he won't take just any old player), plus the tensions of recent summers that have led to Jörg Schmadtke working as temporary DoF – which clearly wasn't an FSG-type appointment.
Without doubt, Schmadtke is Klopp's man (either his choice, or appointed to work with him), and that's fair enough, given that Klopp drives the vision of the club.
A manager with a lesser vision, and less concerned with team harmony and the right kind of player (and unprepared to develop kids), would probably accept less-ideal signings. He'd take more gambles.
As with last summer, there hasn't been quite the joined-up thinking of old, but equally, the need for a bigger squad this season (and Klopp never wants a big squad) is lessened by only being in the Europa League; if necessary, the key players can rest in Europe this season, whereas no one would ever want to do that in the Champions League. It's likely to be a less-intensive season overall; albeit some players are getting sent off, but that means the others are doing extra running.
A bigger squad gives more insurance with injuries, but also, presents more issues in other areas. (And if your players don't play as many minutes in Europe, it reduces the risk of injuries; albeit they can still occur, and sometimes they can be random accidents.)
Which isn't to say that Klopp doesn't want new signings, the club doesn't want new signings, and no one is working on new signings.
It's just not that easy if you are also trying to run the club like a football club, and not like a Ponzi scheme. Chelsea seem to literally think that “Brewster's Millions” was a true story.
The Reds' three major signings so far all appear inspired, and four or five youngsters are ageing into "ready" territory.
If the Reds are so lacking in quality, it's amazing to have played away at big-spending Chelsea and Newcastle, and also played two games with 10 men, and have seven points.
Then there's the Mo Salah conundrum (if a mega-bid from Saudi comes in, as keeps being speculated upon, but doesn't appear to have actually arrived). I'll explain again why Liverpool are in a very strong position, albeit time is very tight.
Plus, moves are mooted for another midfielder and a defender.
I'd be shocked if the Reds don't have some good options lined up – even if buyout-clause based – so as to not end up with another Arthur Melo, should it prove difficult to negotiate with clubs.
Up to this point, Liverpool appear to have got an absolute steal with Dominik Szoboszlai for £60m, given that he's 22, tall, strong, quick, supremely skilful, and has the energy of Gini Wijnaldum drinking James Milner's Ribena. He can be a megastar.
…..
After a bright start before the clamour to have Alexander-Arnold sent off after just five minutes, the play was bitty; but in the final 30 minutes the Reds played Newcastle off the park.
It felt for most of the game like a defeat was inevitable, and to draw would have felt miraculous; to win, astonishing.
And to do so with a brand new midfield that had to yet again play with a man down, and then to rely on a 20-year-old centre-back making his debut (to partner the 4th choice) to bolster the ranks at the back, adds lovely black-and-white icing to the cake.
This is something I'll savour, with lots of praise to hand out. (My further ranting about officials can wait until another day.)
My word!
I still quite fathom how the Reds won that, albeit Newcastle went into their shell and the Reds finally starting building pressure with 25-30 minutes to go; soon after a Sky graphic about Liverpool having made just 20 passes after half time.
I felt then that the game was up. It didn't even look like a response was possible.
But Mac Allister was everywhere, and so calm in possession. He was key to the popping-it-about, pop-pop-pop, that enabled the Reds to make the ball do the extra work.
And Dominik Szoboszlai – wow! The man is exceptional. What a footballer, what an athlete. He really is the real deal.
He covers so much ground, glides past players at pace, and has the balance of a ballerina, with the build of a boxer, and the looks of an Adonis.
... Sorry, where was I?
Elsewhere, Endo had a tough afternoon, but gave it his all. It can't be easy protecting a defence that has had its lynchpin sent off, after its best ball-player gifted the opposition a goal.
(I'm also wondering if he could become the utility midfielder if the Reds go back for a bigger, stronger no.6, but we shall see.)
Joe Gomez came on and battled, and refused to be intimidated. Alisson was a giant in goal.
My initial love of Núñez centred around how, in Portugal, he found the corners with pace and precision.
But his suitability still looks questionable when his first touch is so wayward; however, once he does get the ball out of his feet, he knows how to finish.
Even when he was missing chances last season, you felt he'd always get more.
When Mike Dean said that he didn't make an obvious call to spare his 'mate' Anthony Taylor, it merely confirmed many smart people's suspicions about how officials make decisions.
Namely, to help mates; to spare the blushes of the new guy; to appease the PGMOL; the get revenge on a rival ref they dislike; due to inattentional blindness and other failures to 'see' what their eyes show them, because they’re not trained in advanced thinking but with outdated ideas; because they bear grudges or are prejudiced against certain players or managers; because they've been told to be strong at an 'intimidating' ground or to an 'intimidating' figure; because they are harassed by people in the street (or online if they’re stupid enough to have social media), or cajoled and encouraged by mates down the pub or strangers in the supermarket; and also when they feel too lowly to intervene and overrule a superior officer.
Indeed, the last factor was a big part of aviation safety overhaul, when airliners repeatedly crashed because a junior pilot dare not undermine the captain. Now, a junior pilot must point out anything that is of concern. (In honour-based cultures this problem continued even longer.)
Matthew Syed's book 'Black Box Thinking' uses the aviation industry's generally exemplary self-examination to get to the truth, and (mostly) not to cover up, and how data is a key part of the process (to spot patterns); as well as understanding human dynamics, such as the one mentioned in the previous paragraph.
(The book is of extra interest to me as I grew up around aviation, adjacent to Heathrow; albeit my dad spent 40 years as a fairly low-level mechanic fixing aircraft, and nothing more fancy than that. I haven’t read this review of the book but it seems to explain it from the introduction.)
Officials also have biases, conscious or otherwise. I've repeatedly shown how 600+ Premier League penalties over a 7-season period saw refs show favouritism, based on % minutes played, to English players in both boxes. (I haven’t re-read the article but one on the old TTT site, which now exists as just an archive, can be found here.)
The internal politics and external optics make for a typical mess when it comes to secretive decision making, at an organisation that continues to lose credibility.
Mic-ing up Mike would have saved a lot of this strife.
But no, VARs must stay secretive. (At least the offside process has improved with margin for error built in, and I trust the software with the lines now drawn fairly straight, and not as if by some partially-sighted meth-head tripping his tits off.)
While he's not worth £100m at his age on the open market, the Saudis want their stars, and Salah is an Arab icon.
(From last year: “Mohamed Salah's agent has described the Liverpool star as ‘the only true international Arab global icon.’”)
The timing could mean Liverpool get very rich from selling Salah, and lose a player who is fading, but fading from glorious to still 'excellent'.
But he could also go next summer. Indeed, an Ian Rush-like deal to have one last season at Liverpool wouldn't be so bad, if the money was worth it. It would also allow Doak a season to bed into first-team life, and obviate the need for buying a replacement (as Doak, sensational as he is, isn't ready to start every week).
It would also mean we’re all free of a year of speculation, which can unsettle everyone.
I wouldn't want to make Salah feel unwanted and force him out, but the ageing process for explosive players can be more painful.
He's on the cusp of losing more powers, and his importance to the team will start to fade, too.
When overhauling a squad and rebuilding, generating big fees is helpful; lest you get left with 'worthless' older players out of contract. Selling Philippe Coutinho was deemed madness by some, but was the best bit of business the club has done in the Premier League era given the exact same amount was then spent on Virgil van Dijk and Alisson Becker.
The flip-side to all that is that integrating even more new signings has its drawbacks; and Salah can help glue things together on the right flank. He's got the knowledge and still got many of the skills.
(And commercially, Liverpool may still see him as a big money-generator, albeit I don't know the ins and outs of that. Obviously if he generates fortunes, then you have to factor in losing that money.)
But once he starts looking to the Saudi league, you already start to lose something.
Tierney is the one that I said before the start of the season should never officiate Liverpool games again in any capacity; and before the Bournemouth game my take was that, in appointing him as VAR, there was a big chance of controversy; and that, while I felt Liverpool should still win, it was an appointment I had to flag with some alarm (as I try to stop focusing on the PGMOL and their brethren, but they keep appointing Tierney).
So excuse me for saying something would happen, and then it happened. I’m therefore going to say Of course it happened!
I didn't want to talk about Tierney again, but it had to be done.
If I were a betting man (and I’m not), I’d bet on decisions going against Liverpool when Tierney is involved, and on the Reds to win fewer games, as that’s what the data says will happen.
(If anyone is getting rich on all this, it isn’t me.)
As such, at the weekend (and hence this piece), Tierney provoked another ‘controversy’ (aka fuckup), by failing in his duty to overturn a “nonsense” red-card decision by a referee in just his 9th Premier League game, and his first involving a Big Six club.
As the VAR, Tierney had the angles that showed it was barely even a foul.
He let the ref give his first ever Premier League red card, to pop his cherry at Anfield against Liverpool (maybe you get a special PGMOL award for that?)
The Zen Den
Paul - after the victory over Newcastle - emphasising how much Liverpool are evolving but also the volume of talent they have in attack.
The harshest thing I can say about Darwin Núñez now is that he's still possibly 5th-choice, given how much the other four offer; and a young Ben Doak will change games, too.
It's almost certainly the best attacking sextet the Reds have ever had; the problem now is, who to select?
Gone are the ultra-reliable front three, with little in reserve; now there are five really strong options (but with radically differing styles) and one absolute world-beater of a 17-year-old.
But this was the Núñez I was so impressed by when he played against Liverpool two seasons ago, and then when viewing all his goals for Benfica, and how he struck the ball so well.
I loved the chaos early last season, and the potential was there; but I also felt the Reds played better once Cody Gakpo arrived.
Of course, the pair tore Man United to shreds, sharing four of the seven goals, but Núñez shines most often on the break; and that's still where his greatest strengths lie, unless he can learn to link the game better, press with more intelligence, and work on his first touch (all of which can be improved, but with time).
He's also excellent in the box, and in the air, as his goals against United showed. It's just the bit in between where he's least effective: outside a packed box, or receiving the ball with his back to goal. (And with no TAA on the wing and Andy Robertson’s wayward crossing, there’s not a lot to head lately.)
But what a brilliant puzzle to solve: how to get the best out of so many attacking options, with the imperial, majestic, strutting-at-warp-speed Dominik Szoboszlai, who is a front-three player for the nation he captains. (Elliott and Jones can also play the role.)
And remember, we've barely seen Liverpool with 11 men this season; albeit I assume that the crazy, nasal-frothing FSGOuters put that down to a cunning plan to try and get by with only paying win bonuses to ten men instead of eleven, or something equally unhinged.
Gakpo is an orchestrator, albeit we haven't seen the best of him either this season, with games as a no.8 (not his strong suit, but he filled a gap), and just 20 minutes in a team of eleven as the false nine; and like everyone else, had fewer touches than if playing with the full XI.
Díaz has been brilliant this season, and looks super-fit and fast. Gakpo links the team as the false 9 (albeit we haven't had 11 players for much of this season and he's been playing in the no.8 role before today). Jota does a bit of everything. Salah is still contributing.
A big windfall in one area might help strengthen in others (as seen when Philippe Coutinho was essentially swapped for Virgil van Dijk and Alisson Becker). Coutinho was seen as vital to the way the Reds played, but actually, he was also shoe-horned in a bit, too.
A late trolley-dash panic would not be good, but we saw that the Reds were prepared to pay £111m for Moisés Caicedo, and now that money is mostly still there, with Wataru Endo costing about a tenth of that amount. It doesn’t mean it will be spent in its entirety, but it shows the Reds will pay big for big talents; and do so out of the blue.
Could selling Salah allow for 2-3 transformational signings; to pull the trigger on big release clauses now? I don’t like too much churn, but smart reinvestment of a windfall could allow the Reds to compete with the richer clubs (with the obvious risk of new singings failing, but then there’s the risk of Salah fading, if not totally melting; nothing is ever guaranteed in football).
In addition, Ben Doak is the best young winger I've ever seen, as I noted on here about a year ago, and prior to that on the old TTT site. He's not ready to start every game, but he's getting closer; and Kaide Gordon is stepping up his return after 18 months out, and he's still only 18. He’s a special talent.
The electric Irish winger Trent Kone-Doherty is emerging, now training with the first team; hitherto painfully underweight, he's starting to fill out a little, having just turned 17. He was so fast and skilful at 15/16 that it was just waiting until he was strong enough.
Gordon is on the comeback trail, Doak is almost ready, and Kone-Doherty is maybe a year away from contention. Keyrol Figueroa, 16 (17 this week) is stronger than all of them. (Conor Bradley could also play in the front three.)
Maybe all these starlets suggest that Salah is needed for at least one more year. And again, one more year would make sense, too; as I previously mooted, with an Ian Rush-style deal to resolve everything, where everyone is a winner, in some ways.
Meanwhile, Dominik Szoboszlai is a front-three player for his country, on the opposite wing; but a no.8 on Salah's side as things stand. Diogo Jota can play on the right.
To me, selling Salah, as when selling Coutinho, need not remotely resemble a disaster; especially if selling overseas, to a non-rival. I no longer think Salah is absolutely pivotal to the team in the way that he was in his peak. Selling someone like Alisson would be more of a risk.
Dynasty
The focus switches away from the pitch and to the courtroom and maybe the most troubled period in Liverpool Football Club’s history, its future fate far from certain. In come the names Martin Broughton, Justice Floyd and eventually John Henry.
Originally written by TTT Subscriber Anthony Stanley, this major series was first serialised on The Tomkins Times and then published by TTT as a book, called A BANQUET WITHOUT WINE - A Quarter-Century of Liverpool FC in the Premier League Era.
On 13th October 2010, with supporters’ nerves jangling and to a soundtrack of ever more vociferous demonstrating, Mr Justice Floyd gave a withering and damning assessment of the carry-on of the American cowboys, claiming they had been guilty of ‘the clearest possible breach’ of a corporate governance agreement and that it would be ‘entirely wrong’ to grant a counter claim to postpone the proposed sale of the club to NESV for £300 million. Though this was not the end of the case – the Americans would appeal in Texas and then be accused by Judge Floyd of having ‘misled’ their lawyers in the US – it effectively meant that Broughton and the board were free to go ahead with the sale to NESV. John Henry attended the board meeting that night and tweeted:
‘Well done Martin, Christian and Ian. Well done RBS. Well done supporters!’
As he was serenaded by renditions of You’ll Never Walk Alone from joyous supporters outside the court, Christian Purslow said he hoped the next decade would see ‘calm and football being the story and business not being the story.’
Martin Broughton claimed that:
“We’ve been here to complete a sale process. We said at the outset that we’d find the right owners for Liverpool, I think we’ve done that. At the end, we had two viable bids, both of whom would have been the right owners. We had to choose between them and I think Liverpool Football Club can look forward to a bright future.”
Spirit of Shankly gave voice to the overall frustration of the fanbase and their anger at what the club had been put through under the hated regime (and, indeed, the mistakes of the previous owners):
“It’s a victory, but it’s a hollow victory. We shouldn’t have been in this situation in the first place. The previous owners put us in this position and the current owners made it even worse. We are starting afresh now, but a club like Liverpool shouldn’t be in this situation.”
This nearly terminal illness at the heart of the club, this putrefaction, which had threatened to reach out its tendrils and infect all aspects of our beloved Liverpool, had been excised and, even if there was still some questioning of the new owners and their intentions, results suddenly improved. It was as if the palpable gloom had been lifted and, for a short while, even Hodgson looked more comfortable in a dugout that had never seemed like a proper fit.
Let’s be clear: redemption for Roy was never likely and the football was still less than sparkling, but after the horror show of the back-to-back losses to Blackpool and Everton, Liverpool seemed to find their groove to a degree and churned out some decent results. In late October and early November, the Reds won four games in a row, including an impressive 2-0 home win against Chelsea, during which Fernando Torres briefly threatened to rediscover his mojo.
The Transfer Hub
“By signing Wataru Endo last week, Liverpool and Jürgen Klopp showed us that they are willing to go out of their way to find left-field solutions to problems. Although getting the Japan captain does not close the chapter of this midfield rebuild, it covers a significant portion of it if you hear what Klopp has had to say about the 30-year-old.
Wieffer sounds like another out-of-the-box name to me. The Dutchman, although is a multi-functional central midfielder who fits the Liverpool demand profile-wise, has rejected an offer from Serie A sides earlier this summer. But, the caveat could be that there is a difference in the final decision when an offer comes from Italy to when it arrives from England at the moment.
The 23-year-old started his career as a FC Twente youth player in 2015 before moving to Excelsior in 2020. He signed for Feyenoord last summer and became a part of the team that lifted the Eredivisie for the 16th time in the club's history.”
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