The Midweek Maxi #18: Selling Salah, The Best English Club & Signing Suarez
Our new Liverpool FC weekly compendium. News. Stats. Views. Debate. Links. Data. Insights. Delights.
To read about why we’ve replaced Free Friday with The Midweek Maxi, see the intro to the first edition.
So far the bumper weekly roundup is going down extremely well with paying subscribers:
This week:
Excerpts and links to the different pieces we've published across the TTT Substack network, prior to the paywall kicking in;
Then, some of the best comments from the site this past week;
Next, Daniel Zambartas’ bumper LFC News, Media & Transfer Round-Up;
And then finally, bit of Midweek Moby (the TTT stalwart, not the beautiful bald middle-aged man), for the third mini-article of new writing within this week’s Maxi.
Job done! (Oh, and it’s also a discussion thread for the issues raised.)
Note: the Maxi may exceed the email size limit on Substack, but the whole piece can be read online by paying subscribers.
TTT Network Roundup
Links and excerpts to articles on the various TTT sites, which are run by different people and require separate subscriptions to this, the TTT Main Hub.
The Main Hub
There’s been plenty, again, on the Main Hub as the transfer window closed (in the UK anyway); from welcoming Gravenberch on deadline day, to debating the merits of selling Salah for a world record fee; as well as the in-depth analysis you get anywhere of the officials and how they treat Liverpool; before, of course, the best bit, the actual football and a fantastic performance versus Aston Villa at Anfield.
All five clubs are within a standard deviation of the norm on bookings within games. But not Liverpool.
And it’s the same for major decisions, too:
Liverpool are outliers for Big Decisions (red cards and penalties, for and against).
Liverpool are outliers for penalties awarded.
Liverpool are outliers for yellow cards in their games.
Liverpool are outliers for any decisions at Anfield.
And the issue carries across to the specific VARs, too.
I will compare referees’ treatment of Liverpool to:
their own refereeing styles; and
to the general pool of refereeing styles and overall averages therein.
However I slice it, it looks bad for Liverpool … except when the refs are from nowhere near the northwest.
Now, you can find a way to get Liverpool closer to normal, as the problem is a cluster of referees, not referees in general. The issue is that the Reds get these “bad” refs more often than expected.
For Liverpool, with this cluster of refs (location and age), it’s extreme statistically-defined outliers – or ultra-extreme outliers – almost all the way.
The only positive refereeing statistic I can find for Liverpool in any of the masses of data is that they get significantly fewer bookings than the other five Big Six clubs.
But of course, as is clear from the graph above, the Reds’ opponents also get significantly fewer bookings.
Relatively speaking, refs don’t use the book very much in Liverpool games, allowing a free-for-all.
Seeing that Liverpool are not an overtly physical or dirty team* (with only Fabinho’s tactical fouls and James Milner’s full-throttle tackles an issue in recent seasons), this works against the Reds and allows physical teams to overstep the mark without punishment.
(*Liverpool have had dirty or overly physical players in the past, but Klopp’s football is more about pressing and staying on your feet to win the ball, not about hardmen, or flying into tackles. Fabinho last season was a walking yellow-card machine as he was so slow into tackles, and always liked a tactical yellow, but so do the midfielders of all the rivals.)
Maybe the lack of second yellow cards to Liverpool’s opposition is the most important piece of evidence: the starkly different way the Reds are reffed, and which – given the lack of first yellow cards – shows why no opposition player has had a second yellow card against Liverpool in the league since 2015, when Sadio Mané – playing for Southampton – was the culprit; and all other Premier League regulars range from receiving five to 13 second-yellows for opponents, and some with fewer seasons in the top flight since 2015 have benefitted from 8-10 second yellows. (As first alerted to me by Andrew Beasley.)
So if this chart started at the end of 2015, Liverpool would be on zero:
This has to be more than a mere coincidence, and something about the way referees don’t want to book players in Liverpool matches, because they don’t want to be tied to that awkward early booking, which makes them nervous about having to make bigger decisions.
This is why refs would warn a time-wasting goalkeeper 17 times, then book them in the 93rd minute, so as to avoid the drama of sending off a keeper, for which they’ll be lambasted in some quarters.
Again, how weird is that?
I’d really like to see an explanation for this from the PGMOL, and a look into the reasons why; beyond my own hypothesising. How can one club’s games be treated so differently?
So far, Salah has given six scintillating and successful seasons – so, some longevity as well as silverware – but also, looks a fraction slower, and his left-foot curlers are getting weaker, as well as more predictable.
On the other hand, he’s dropping into the no.8 position to play passes into the channel for Darwin Núñez, or for Dominik Szoboszlai to sprint outside like the winger.
Salah is now a smarter, more clever player; but not quite as fast, and his finishing looks less effective.
(He's scored two tap-ins, one from his own missed penalty, and last season his finishing data was the worst of his time at the club. But his creativity is up – albeit the Reds have other creative options if creativity is the main aim.)
To keep him would be to keep a player who can balance the side in different ways; a player still at the top of his game, but on the other side of the great peak.
Plus, an attack on the top four is currently looking capable of being turned into a title challenge, given the two tough away games and the two games played with only 10 men. As Andrew Beasley noted in the post-match thread:
“The last five seasons in which the Reds had at least this total at this point, they challenged for the title: 2008/09, 2013/14, 2018/19, 2019/20 and 2021/22.”
That doesn’t mean the same will follow (past patterns are good for probabilities but never prognostications), but obviously you can be out of the title race these days after four bad games at the start.
Yet £215m or more would allow for some serious squad strengthening; and if Salah were to have his heart set on a move to Saudi, he would already be less committed to Liverpool. (Not that Liverpool need lots of new players, but they still need some.)
My original hunch was that he would want to play in a serious league to achieve (and score) serious goals, but the Saudi league is different from previous new leagues in the sheer scale of its wealth, as well as the efforts they will go to to get the most famous footballing Arab to add further household names to their sportswashing project. It’s cultural, as well as sporting.
Once it was clear that Salah (and maybe as importantly, his agent) could 10x current earnings, and be treated like a literal King, then suddenly you have to be ready for call. This is not a normal approach, a normal seduction. This is a laser-focussed campaign.
That said, this is also a player who has won every single trophy with Liverpool, bar the Europa League (which the Reds weren’t even in until this season, and which is not something Champions League winners aspire to succeed in); and has won Golden Boots and personal awards that are probably beyond him now. (Harry Kane has gone, but Erling Haaland now looms larger than life.)
Does Salah want more of that level of sporting success, which may be more elusive now, or the new kind of exultation that awaits in Arabia?
Already one of the Reds’ best-ever signings – a bona fide Liverpool legend for life – could somehow end up seeing the club quadrupling what it paid for him, right at the point where he’s on the slide.
To pay what is still less than £50m after Premier League inflation and get over £200m for a player of his age is about as good as it gets as a transfer: bargain price; incredible service; insane sale fee.
Remember, Keegan left in his prime, after the Reds were crowned champions of England and Europe in 1977 (the latter for the first time), to become double European Footballer of the Year in Germany. Rush left at his peak (and soon returned).
Torres left at his peak. Suarez left at his peak. Owen left at his peak. Steve McManaman left at his peak, as did Coutinho.
Szoboszlai was bought with better shooting from distance in mind, and it's just another way that this midfield is better than the one it replaced.
I loved how Szoboszlai, Mac Allister and Alexander-Arnold slowed the game down at the right times, with Mac Allister especially canny at when to hold and when to progress. He also pressed and tackled impressively.
Núñez didn't score, but proved dangerous, and the Reds played well with him, including a couple of nice link-ups; even if he still messes up a bit too much with his touch.
With a better midfield, he seems to have more support.
I loved how he read that Salah was offside so he took charge of the situation, but then when he got to the ball he lost momentum; albeit rescued it again when he got it to Salah, and got it back, with his dink hitting the bar.
He also missed what I find is always the most common way to miss a big chance: the ball coming across the goal, and the confusion in sorting out the feet, and deciding which foot to go with.
This is the first time in 45 years watching football, however, that I've seen a striker, with a choice between left foot and right foot, go with his head.
Still, I liked that the chances were falling his way.
I felt the end of the game saw the strikers trying to do too much on their own, as often happens; while Cody Gakpo looks a bit lethargic this season compared to last (although he's played two games in midfield, and with ten men in one of them).
Andy Robertson was again poor with a pull-back the time he got furthest forward, but otherwise it felt like his best game in a long while, with lots of defensive energy and charging upfield with the ball.
Luis Díaz was electric in the first half, but perhaps a bit too predictable with the cutting infield every time (again). It really needs an overlap, but Robertson is obviously staying slightly deeper when the Reds are in possession, unless he's the one carrying the ball.
But overall, an excellent performance and result.
The Zen Den
Liverpool never win transfer windows; but the club has won every single trophy these past few years.
To show how great Liverpool FC is, let's look at the rivals; without necessarily doing so to belittle them, or to suggest that they don't count. (Before bringing home the stark contrasts.)
• Man City. Lots of asterisks; 115 or so. Their XI (ignoring any potential illegal payments) consistently costs about 30% more than Liverpool’s, yet have often only beaten the Reds to the title by a point or two. A once great, self-deprecating fanbase turned into humourless Abu Dhabi sportwashing defenders. The club now seems to many like the Lance Armstrong of football. Will their expensive lawyers get them off the charges?
• Man United. Owners who, unlike Liverpool's, take money out of the club. Squad still fairly full of expensive duds who don't play (Harry Maguire, £92.5m after inflation) or don’t play well (Anthony Martial, £152.7m) and ‘dickheads’ who don't train properly (Jadon Sancho, £80.3m); and dickheads who’ve allegedly done far worse (and who tainted the club’s reputation). Talented manager but, as yet, not even close to the top tier of Jürgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola. Not run by sportswashers, but run by rinsers.
• Everton (included as local rivals). Won several transfer windows to the point where they ended up winning lots of trophies scrabbling around for free transfers for the past two years and aiming to escape the bottom three. The ultimate example of brash, mad-spending owners who jeopardise the health of the club (often while fans rejoice, cock-strut, and peacock, before the chickens come home to roost). A cautionary tale, for those who weren't interested in or even aware of football 20 years ago, when Leeds spent big and blew-out bigger. (Those who do not pay attention to history are doomed to repeat its failures.) Current status: perennial relegation battlers, one point from four games. The only two teams below them have a game in hand.
• Newcastle. Tainted by the sickening Saudi sportswashing that slicks across the world, and lost three of four games already (one of which was at home when 1-0 up against 10-man Liverpool). Upper-mid-level manager who did well last season with low expectations and a pot of gold, but now things are ramping up, and there’s European football to juggle and to sap energy. Eddie Howe has done a good job, but limitations could end up being exposed. Historically passionate, humorous fanbase, but like City's, now compromised by greed for success. Also, very unlikely that the Saudi league will come after (or seek to unsettle) their best players, just those they want to sell; which can further corrupt the Premier League.
• Chelsea. Bloody hell, where do you start? 🤯
I've since heard insider info about Gravenberch's fitness data, and it seems he can match Szoboszlai for physical monstering; his numbers are off the charts, and he’s almost never injured.
Next, talk of him being a dickhead is totally undermined by Thomas Tuchel, people at Ajax, and the Reds would never sign such a person. He simply didn't get minutes at Bayern, and cut a frustrated figure, without ever being a dick about it.
If he is kept as a no.8 option, that would put him closer to the XI than in Germany, as the Reds' third excellent no.8 purchased this season.
But he’s just the complete package.
Rafael Honigstein noted:
"Team-mates raved about his quality in training but he wasn’t able — or allowed — to show his worth consistently in matches under Julian Nagelsmann nor his March successor Thomas Tuchel. Even in a collectively poor season for Bayern that saw many stalwarts play well below their second-best, the Dutchman couldn’t break up the Joshua Kimmich/Leon Goretzka double-pivot partnership at the heart of Bayern’s team."
Dynasty
Originally written by TTT Subscriber Anthony Stanley, this major series was first serialised on The Tomkins Times and then published by TTT as a book, called A BANQUET WITHOUT WINE - A Quarter-Century of Liverpool FC in the Premier League Era.
Kenny’s success as he had taken the reigns at a troubled club had been built around the talented and mentally quick Maxi, Meireles and Suárez, with the likes of Kuyt offering excellent support. But with his first season as manager proper dawning, Dalglish and his director of football essentially tore up this blueprint and decided to start from scratch. This was, to a degree, understandable; as Andy Carroll – the club’s record purchase – strained at the leash to prove he was fit and firing, his manager sought to bring in personnel who would get the best from the Geordie. Moreover, Maxi was not getting any younger and, clearly, Meireles was not entirely trusted. It could be argued, however, that it was yet another example of the Reds seeking to change too much, too soon and dispensing with effective weapons prematurely. Certainly the players identified by Dalglish and Comolli – with one exception – would never really convince in a red shirt.
FSG were determined to spend big and spend they did, but it could be argued that the signings were a touch simplistic and showed just how long Dalglish had been out of the game. Stuart Downing arrived from Aston Villa for just over £18 million; fresh from a season in which he had been the Villains’ player of the year, it was envisaged that he would supply the bullets for Carroll. Alas, the Liver bird never sat comfortably on the English winger’s chest. Talented though he was, it was a classic case of the shirt being too heavy. This charge would also be initially laid at the feet of another big money Englishman to arrive as many questioned the wisdom of handing Sunderland £16 million for the unproven midfielder Jordan Henderson.
Though his initial seasons would underwhelm as he was played out of position, dropped and genuinely seemed to struggle with expectation, the Teessider would ultimately prove good value and a shrewd buy. The same could not be said of José Enrique, a left-back signed from Newcastle for £6 million, whose Liverpool career, like the painting of Dorian Gray, went in the polar opposite of Henderson’s; initially exciting but rapidly showing his limitations. In yet another ploy to harness Carroll’s undoubted ability – in the right system – Charlie Adam was brought in from relegated Blackpool. The Scot had superb ability from a dead ball but little in the way of brains, grace or footballing intelligence; he would last only as long as the manager who signed him.
A raft of first teamers were shown the door by Dalglish with those players who appeared to sum up the recent plights of the Reds ushered out - – whether fairly or not – including Konchesky, Jovanovic, Kyrgiakos, Poulsen and N’Gog. Perhaps most surprising was the transfer of Raul Meireles to Chelsea for £12 million on the final day of the 2011’s summer transfer window. As mentioned, he had appeared the one real bright spark of all Hodgson’s inept dealings in the market and had displayed a keen eye for goal and clever, incisive movement since December. Perhaps it was he was just never truly suited to English football (as evidenced by his future career). Or perhaps his constantly bewildering haircuts upset his phlegmatic and staid manager.
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