The Midweek Maxi #5: Short-Term Schmadtke, Time-Wasting Epidemic & Firmino+

Our new Liverpool FC weekly compendium. News. Stats. Views. Debate. Links. Data. Insights. Delights.

To read about why we’ve replaced Free Friday with The Midweek Maxi, see the intro to the first edition.

So far the bumper weekly roundup is going down extremely well with paying subscribers:

This week:

• Excerpts and links to the different pieces we've published across the TTT Substack network, prior to the paywall kicking in;

• Andrew Beasley’s Weekly Stats Analysis on the length of time teams need to play together to be at their peak stage.

• Then, some of the best comments from the site this past week;

• Next, Daniel Zambartas’ bumper LFC News, Media & Transfer Round-Up;

• And then finally, bit of Midweek Moby (the TTT stalwart, not the beautiful bald middle-aged man), for the third mini-article of new writing within this week’s Maxi.

Job done! (Oh, and it’s also a discussion thread for the issues raised.)

Note: the Maxi may exceed the email size limit on Substack, but the whole piece can be read online by paying subscribers.

TTT Network Roundup

Links and excerpts to articles on the various TTT sites, which are run by different people and require separate subscriptions to this, the TTT Main Hub.

TTT Main Hub

Paul reacted to the confirmed news that Jorg Schmadtke will be taking up a short term role with the Reds in the summer.

Jorg Schmadtke as Liverpool's New Sporting Director – What Will Change?

It feels like Schmadtke is presumably going to conclude the deals in progress – heat up the irons in the fire, then present them to Klopp once sufficiently warm. If it's short-term, then it may just be for this summer, to finish what has already been started.

But obviously he'll have different ideas to Ward, so how will things differ?

With Pep Lijnders having an increasing influence, the markets the Reds have looked at in the last year or so have been Ward's preferred Portugal and Lijnders' Netherlands.

But Schmadtke obviously knows the German market better than anyone at Liverpool (even Klopp, after so long away). He will have excellent contacts there, and know who is gettable, and worth getting.

Is he arriving to bring a hidden gem or two in contrast to the players like Alexis Mac Allister, Mason Mount and even Jude Bellingham, all of whom seemed – or still seem – genuine targets?

My general preference is for players who already speak English and know the league, in terms of quicker adaptation. But obviously there are exceptions to all rules, and there is better value abroad; just a bit more risk with it, too.

So better value can also mean just cheaper prices, but with greater risks; more of a payoff if it succeeds, but maybe less chance of it succeeding.

Perhaps Liverpool need to mix it up, with a couple of big established names (but not superstars) aged 20-26, and maybe a punt or two from the Bundesliga. Certainly it's not a summer to sign four rookies and no one else.

Next up is Daniel Zambartas’ piece about time-wasting and ruining the spectacle because so little of the match involves the ball being in play.

Time-Wasting Epidemic Ruining Spectacle, By A Young Match-Going Red

This also isn’t only about Liverpool. Other teams are suffering too; this is a genuine concern about what is happening in Premier League football matches.

And if any further proof is needed that this isn’t purely coming from a place of bias, the impressive and intelligent (and fundamentally, neutral) Opta Analysts took it upon themselves to produce a expose on teams time-wasting in the Premier League. And the results were as fascinating as they were frightening.

It read:

“The average ball-in-play time in the Premier League this season is 54 minutes and 46 seconds. That’s the lowest it’s ever been in the 11 seasons since records began (2012-13).”

This game, however, saw just 48 minutes played, despite 18 minutes added – over 60 minutes of ‘dead time’. Over an hour spent watching … nothing. And that’s not including half-time.

Brentford and Newcastle are the two worst sides in the league for average time taken to restart play, and it’s no surprise to see Villa down there either, as it was these three teams that completely destroyed three games at Anfield. Again, Liverpool didn’t lose any of these games; it’s not the results I was upset about; it’s that the game of football was spoiled. Even Arsenal did similar.

The Opta piece is fantastic, but there’s one thing it doesn’t cover, and that’s because it can’t cover it. And it’s also, to me, the most concerning tactic that is being deployed: faking injuries.

This is the most concerning because A) It’s a more modern idea, and becoming more and more frequent, B) It’s difficult but not impossible to discipline, C) It’s the most effective way to destroy momentum, and D) I don’t see how we reach a solution to stop it.

[PT: UEFA to monitor Premier League timekeeping next season.]

It is absolutely sickening seeing players manipulate the head injury rule, which was brought into protect footballers from serious, career and even life-threatening injuries. Now we see grifters like Nick Pope and Ashley Young pretending to have headaches just to disrupt Liverpool’s momentum.

Young literally just headed a ball away, as any defender would several times a game, then proceeded to collapse on the floor and stay there for at least two minutes, before miraculously recovering and playing on.

Another thing I saw was a Villa player ‘injured’ off the pitch, then get up, hobble onto the pitch, and fall over again, so the game couldn’t continue. It happened right in front of me. That’s how you know this is just pure lying and cheating.

Dynasty

The sixth instalment of this major new series on Dynasty looks at Gérard Houulier’s time in sole charge of Liverpool FC.

Originally a series of articles covering the period 1992 to Klopp’s arrival in 2017, it was written by TTT Subscriber Anthony Stanley, serialised on The Tomkins Times and then published by TTT as a book called A BANQUET WITHOUT WINE - A Quarter-Century of Liverpool FC in the Premier League Era.

…

Joining Hyypiä in the heart of defence came Stéphane Henchoz from Blackburn Rovers. The Swiss defender was dependable and resolute, a terrier-like tackler who also possessed a good reading of the game and decent aerial prowess. Like Hyypiä, he also wasn’t overly blessed with any great pace but as Houllier’s defensive lines tended to be deep, this never caused too many problems. The two would go on to form a formidable partnership over the next few seasons and, despite Gérard’s relentless and, to some, irksome rotation, Henchoz and Hyypiä were a constant throughout the early part of his tenure. Protecting the centre-backs was another new arrival, Dietmar Hamann, signed for £8 million from Newcastle United. Despite the relatively high fee, the purchase of the German was still regarded as something of a coup and the unflappable Didi would go on to achieve genuine legendary status in a red shirt.

This triumvirate, who were signed with the express notion of making Liverpool tougher to beat, were also joined by the talented but somewhat lightweight Vladimír Šmicer, the goalkeeper Sander Westerveld and two forwards – Titi Camara and Erik Meijer, both of whom would achieve virtual cult status in their oddly respective ways.

Seven signings then and seven different nationalities; this was, finally, an embracing of the brave new world of English football which was rapidly discarding its previously insular and myopic philosophy. No matter the metric one uses to judge such things, Houllier’s first foray into the transfer market was an undoubted success; he acted swiftly and decisively, identifying the players needed to make his vision for the club a reality, sometimes sending his new assistant – the former Liverpool defender, Phil Thompson – throughout the continent on scouting missions. The exacting standards required by Houllier – soon to be felt by the first team squad ‐ ensured a gruelling process for the new number two, as Thompson recounted in his autobiography:

“I can remember flying in and out of Holland watching players, sometimes three times in ten days. I’d set off after training and always be back the next day before the players arrived. I was physically shattered. I can remember lying in bed thinking: Is the manager testing me? Is he checking out my willingness and my loyalty?”

Transfer Hub

Mizgan runs his analytical eye over the Reds’ right-hand side and how it’s improved since the tweak in system as well as other potential solutions.

What to do with the Reds' right-hand side?

Because Trent is so good on the ball, moving him into midfield when the team is in possession made a lot of sense. The upsurge in the 24-year-old’s creative range and defensive game was there for everyone to see.

But why midfield? While trying not to sound repetitive, frankly that department was desperate for help throughout this season. Fabinho was struggling to do the dual role of mopping out attacks and playing those first phase passes to get the team moving forward.

By having Trent alongside him, the Brazilian started focusing more on the defending and counter-pressing, and left all the forward passing work to the former.

Now, if we analyse Liverpool's right-hand side, the new system has pushed the right-sided number eight (mostly Jordan Henderson) wider and allowed Mohamed Salah to make those penetrative runs from out to in, something we were used to seeing from him in a Red shirt until this season for some strange reason.

Below, we have a table of the three players that chiefly played on the right-hand side of the Liverpool formation this season - Henderson, Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold, and find out what changes occurred when the system was tweaked.

[PT – I’ve asked Mizgan to use the TTT colour palette as previously instructed and to stop giving me a migraine 😜]

The Zen Den

Paul goes into detail - with Firmino having played his final game for the club - about the potential of Cody Gakpo. [This was from last week, before the final game, where fittingly, both scored.]

Cody Gakpo Is Firmino+

When I recently assessed league goals for all the big-name attackers in the main leagues over the past six seasons, Gakpo rated 8th out of 100 for exceeding xG*.

(*All xG referenced is non-penalty xG.)

He was at +10.6 against his xG, meaning almost eleven extra goals than expected; at +0.125 per game.

Only seven players added more than +0.125 xG per game to their actual goal tallies.

However, I had made one generous exception for Gakpo, in including his World Cup figures; albeit that was an elite tournament (and not the League Cup), where he again shone.

But he consistently outscores his xG; whereas almost every single other player has swings from under-to-over-performing – even for a season or two – he doesn't.

With the data before the Brentford game, He's already got six goals from 4.2xG for Liverpool in the league, to be +1.8 in half a season.

[Update: this is now down to +0.8, but the Villa goal would have put him over +1 again.]

So I thought I'd widen the net on Gakpo, and take in all competitions.

Now, the data only exists for Europe and the league, so there's no domestic cup data on xG over-performance. But again, there was for the World Cup, so we'll keep that in.

Also, obviously the teenage years are usually spent getting used to senior football, so aren't best indicator.

If you exclude the 1.7 games he played in the Champions League for the Reds (against Real Madrid), we can go back to around the time he turned 20 and see the record, with a + outcome every single time.

• 2020-2021 – 2. Europa Lg +0.8

• 2021-2022 – 3. Conf Lg +1.6

• 2021-2022 – 1. Eredivisie +2.1

• 2021-2022 – 2. Europa Lg +1.1

• 2022-2023 – 1. Eredivisie +2.3

• 2022-2023 – 2. Europa Lg +1.8

• 2022-2023 – 1. Premier League +1.8 [now +0.8]

• 2022-2023 – Netherlands World Cup +2.7

(85.1 90s played)

Indeed, if you add his Europa adventures with PSV and take a reading from the start of 2020/21 onwards – the time he only started to come of age, leaving his teens – then his position on the table of elite finishers would see him move up to 4th, virtually level with Lionel Messi, in terms of excess production against non-penalty xG per 90:

• 1 Erling Haaland +0.222

• 2 Dries Mertens +0.170

• 3 Lionel Messi +0.169

• 4 Cody Gakpo (+ Europe/World Cup)* +0.166

Now, this is giving him an additional pool of games and a different time-frame to the others, so my point is not to cook the statistical books and overhype him, but to show two things:

1. consistency of outscoring xG, and

2. improvement since 2020, in his early 20s.

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