The Midweek Maxi #8: Midfield Royalty, Youthful Brilliance & Creative Combinations
Our new Liverpool FC weekly compendium. News. Stats. Views. Debate. Links. Data. Insights. Delights.
To read about why we’ve replaced Free Friday with The Midweek Maxi, see the intro to the first edition.
So far the bumper weekly roundup is going down extremely well with paying subscribers:
This week:
Excerpts and links to the different pieces we've published across the TTT Substack network, prior to the paywall kicking in;
Andrew Beasley’s Weekly Stats Analysis, this week looking at creative combinations in the Premier League and then a focus on Liverpool.
Then, some of the best comments from the site this past week;
Next, Daniel Zambartas’ bumper LFC News, Media & Transfer Round-Up;
And then finally, bit of Midweek Moby (the TTT stalwart, not the beautiful bald middle-aged man), for the third mini-article of new writing within this week’s Maxi.
Job done! (Oh, and it’s also a discussion thread for the issues raised.)
Note: the Maxi may exceed the email size limit on Substack, but the whole piece can be read online by paying subscribers.
TTT Network Roundup
Links and excerpts to articles on the various TTT sites, which are run by different people and require separate subscriptions to this, the TTT Main Hub.
TTT Main Hub
Paul’s in-depth analysis looks at a potential signing for Liverpool - Khéphren Thuram - and what he might offer in midfield.
What follows is my summation of a way to follow the pattern set by Man City and Arsenal last season, in terms of the layoff to the no.8; something which Mo Salah and Luis Díaz would find perfect to do (see my explanation below), had Liverpool had a goalscoring no.8.
It’s something that Liverpool can close the gap on, whilst actually being ahead of those teams in other areas: better keeper, better centre-backs (aerially and in tackles), more open-play goals from wide areas, and … Trent Alexander-Arnold; and perhaps some better players in other positions too, albeit the transfer window can yet see a lot of changes to all three clubs, and others.
(At the very least, Liverpool should be fitter and refreshed after starting last season so fatigued, and the Reds don’t have to worry about the Champions League, but can use the Europa to keep everything who needs game-time ticking over, whilst resting the older players. Arsenal are recruiting wisely, but may suffer second-season syndrome.)
It seems that the Reds may be adding two Shot Monster no.8s, just as Arsenal are moving to two (Havertz to replace Granit Xhaka).
Before that section, a quick look at Thuram's attacking numbers, to show that even though he's yet to break big as a goalscorer, the potential is there:
Shots Total – 94th percentile
npxG + xAG – 83rd percentile
Shot-Creating Actions – 72nd percentile
(Percentiles for midfielders across Europe's five main leagues.)
Until last season, his average shot distance was 17 yards, and that was closer to 19 in 2022/23. To me, this feels like a player who will get goals, just like Mac Allister, another Shot Monster.
…
Next up is David’s look at the youth set up, and in particular the top ten prospects for the Reds.
Quansah is young for a centre-back, but he already has quite a body of work with his time for the England U20s and some hard yards for Bristol Rovers under Joey Barton. He's definitely a leader too with better game reading skills than the more erratic, albeit physically impressive, Billy the ‘no longer Kid’ Koumetio.
(Quansah is also a giant and is filling out, and signed a new deal with the club last month.)
I think both those two are obviously ready to get more experience so more loan time looks likely, but it's a really good pathway they are on.
As for Calvin Ramsay, even though he's not had too many minutes, he already has some valuable loan experience and I got the impression that this wasn't the worst year for him development wise. Whenever, he did play he was right on it, but he'll need some regular playing time to regain his best form. I can't really see where he's going to get that if he doesn't go out on loan. (And indeed, since writing, he has now joined Preston North End on loan).
Of the others on my top 10 prospects list, they are mostly too young, in terms of the type of players they are, such as Jayden Danns – a great understudy for Cody Gakpo imho – but still growing and who need a bit of filling out before he's thrown to the wolves of adult football. He is already tall, strong, and great at holding the ball up and surprisingly deft with his footwork for a big lad, but he will need to test this against equally large and canny defenders.
My last three selections, Scanlon, Koumas and Figueroa, also play for the U18s and its early days. Scanlon, Danns and Figueroa all have exceptional physical characteristics which suggest they could prosper. (Danns, Koumas and Figueroa are all the sons of footballing fathers.)
…
Finally on The Main Hub is news about Paul’s new and updated Dynasty book:
I've long wanted to do an update of the book, but instead I have decided to do a rewrite-update, with new analysis added to the previous sections, much of which will be re-written with the extra knowledge gained in the past decade and a half; and obviously, picking up from 2008, the new chapters on the final two years of Rafa Benítez's reign, the brief Roy Hodgson debacle, Brendan Rodgers' highs and lows, and so far, eight great years of Jürgen Klopp.
So much has happened since 2008 that it could be a book in and of itself.
I also wanted to include the insights of some of our loyal subscribers, the oldest of whom saw the players from the 1950s and '60s, and for subscribers to contribute to a hive mind approach to the analyses, with the TTT staff – most of whom I got to know in 2009 when TTT launched – also helping on research.
"Dynasty" was actually one the books that John W Henry told me he bought on Amazon in 2010 (when researching the club, about which he knew nothing at that point) before going ahead and buying Liverpool FC, so it may have played a part in actually changing history, too.
(Sorry to any #FSGOuters for that. You can hand back the league title, the Champions League crown and other finals and +90-point finishes, the various domestic and continental cups. Let’s go back to the time of Paul Konchesky and Roy Hodgson, and take it from there.)
After publishing a dozen or so up to this point, this should be my final Liverpool FC book, barring any miraculous seasons worth writing about; albeit major trophies seem to mostly be bought by sportswashers these days, leaving less room for honestly-run clubs to succeed.
The Zen Den
Paul’s Zen Den is based on how our midfield might look in the future if we sign Thuram and/or Gravenberch.
Of course, I think height is a good proxy, and even if someone like Khéphren Thuram isn't winning lots of headers per game (the league style also affects the number of aerials involved), he has the potential to do so with age and experience; as I keep noting, aerial win percentages are highly correlated with height, but height + age generally seems the key combination (as does time spent in the Premier League).
This method is perhaps only harsh on Thiago, who is clearly better in the air than his 5'9" height suggests, but obviously he doesn't win headers in either box; and someone who is 6'4" will do that by default.
So, there's creative, progressive, defensive and size-based percentiles, to try and give an instant impression an all-round midfielder based on the kinds of things I think Liverpool look for. (Pace is hard to measure, other than faster players may create more data as they can get about the pitch and do more.)
But obviously it's just my guess at what the club would prioritise, and data is never the full picture: you have to scout via video, live viewing and do homework on character, attitude and likelihood to integrate. I love data, but also worry about people who ignore the eye-test and other criteria.
Plus, as Bajcetic and Elliott were teenagers, their data is nowhere near the peak it could potentially reach, and Curtis Jones is just ageing into the period where peaking starts, like the plateau towards to top of Everest, before the final ascent to the highest point.
Bajcetic had great games and days later, jaded games, as he ran his socks off then looked leggy, as befits a lean lad who'd made his debut at 17 and who had just turned 18 when he got a run of games (and couldn't be rotated as there were injuries to others). Bajcetic is clearly an all-rounder, and I'd expect the radar to expand in all directions.
Dynasty
This instalment of this major series on Dynasty focuses on the Miracle of Istanbul, with Rafa Benitez’s remarkable Champions League win in 2005.
Originally a series of articles covering the period 1992 to Klopp’s arrival in 2017, it was written by TTT Subscriber Anthony Stanley, serialised on The Tomkins Times and then published by TTT as a book called A BANQUET WITHOUT WINE - A Quarter-Century of Liverpool FC in the Premier League Era.
Following this, Liverpool were then held to a frustrating 0-0 home draw in the Champions League against Deportivo La Coruña, meaning qualification for the knockout phase already looked dicey. A run of fixtures which typified the early season form then commenced: a routine 2-0 victory at home to Charlton, a 2-2 draw with Blackburn Rovers (the dark and dreary evening kick-off and the horrific injury to Cissé was indicative of how we all felt at this stage), Deportivo were then beaten in the Estadio Municipal De Riazor, breathing new life into our European campaign, before Birmingham City arrived at Anfield and defeated the Reds 1-0. A couple of weeks later, after it again looked like we may have turned a domestic corner when Milan Baroš managed to make his head down running style a virtue in scoring a hat trick to defeat Crystal Palace, Middlesbrough exposed the fundamental deficiencies in the team by beating the Reds 2-0 at the Riverside. After thirteen games Liverpool were down to eighth in the table. Three days later, a Javier Saviola winner of dubious legality gave Monaco a 1-0 victory in France and left our dreams of qualification in tatters. It was late November and the season already looked like unravelling.
What a hit son!
‘If you think I wink, I did laugh politely at repeats’ – One day like this, Elbow.
Two rockets that will live long in the memory from two very different players provided much of the narrative for the next part of the campaign. Neil Mellor’s thirty yard rocket has perhaps been airbrushed out of our memories by the momentous events that were about to unfold during this historic year. But it really was a strike worthy of toppling the champions. Mellor never quite cut it as a Liverpool player and was only in the team due to injury but he seized on some uncharacteristic hesitancy from the Gunners rearguard in the dying moments of the game and conjured an unlikely dipping shot that seemed to sail in slow motion past David Seaman. Pandemonium followed at Anfield.
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