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TTT Free Friday - 11th November

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Free Friday

TTT Free Friday - 11th November

The Reds keep on winning, but may be up for sale!

Daniel Rhodes
Nov 13, 2022
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TTT Free Friday - 11th November

tomkinstimes.substack.com

We’ve been planning for a while is to bring back erstwhile favourite Free Friday, which seems to suit the new format of The Tomkins Times.

Free Friday (or very occasionally on a Sunday - Ed) will cover our work across The Tomkins Times’ Substack network, with it running via an opt-in or opt-out newsletter on The Main Hub (where almost all of the community commenting takes place), but covering TTT’s four sub-Substacks, or spokes.

The Tomkins Times’ Substack Network

TTT Main Hub

David P with an excellent comment about FSG and the potential sale; this alongside plenty of others as well (all free to read):

I work as a financial adviser so have had some interesting conversations this year as investments have gone to hell and back. The one question that I am constantly asked is whether to cash in an investment and stick the money into a cash investment now that interest rates are improving. The right answer is clearly a very strong no because by encashing now clients would be crystallising their losses and then guaranteeing further losses - whilst interest rates are going up they are still way below inflation rates.

What has this to do with whether FSG are going to sell our or not I hear you ask? As Jeff has continually pointed out, FSG are businessmen and two things are absolutely certain: they will try their hardest not to pay tax if they don't have to and they don't believe in having money sitting around in cash when it can be invested and making money for them. In my humble opinion, therefore, there is not a cat in hell's chance of FSG selling up lock stock and barrel and walking away. Unlike ordinary investors they won't crystallise a loss, but they will undoubtedly generate a huge tax bill and then what is the plan for the money that is left? Again as Jeff points out, unless they have a scheme for which the cash has been earmarked, they will not be selling anytime soon.

Simon Jordan pointed out that everything has its price and that a bid of £5Bn would see them sell up. That may be the case, but then they ask themselves: why is somebody willing to pay that amount of money for LFC? They are prepared to pay it because they see the potential to make even more money - so logically FSG should hang on in there, avoid paying out the tax and benefit from the continued uptick in value.

Far more likely is some sort of extension of the Redbird deal - either with them or with another 3rd (or should that be 4th?) party. This would allow them to release some capital from the club - bearing in mind that they have not drawn from the club previously. Alternatively, it may well be that they see further external investment as the only way to plough back into the club the necessary finance to compete with the State owned clubs. Clearly in order to attract interest they need to smoke out interested parties, but they also need to put a value on the club - hence the involvement of the investment banks. As things currently stand I'm happy to put a positive spin on this development and look at it as the next (logical) step in helping the club to compete with the likes of City etc.

One last point, I am absolutely certain that we will see an ESL in the not too distant future. Whether that is by way of another breakaway, or sponsored by UEFA, I know not; but the pressure will continue to grow and there will undoubtedly be very strong financial constraints placed on all participants. If there isn't, then in the words of Private Frazier, I fear that in the fullness of time "we're all doomed!"

The Tomkins Times - Main Hub
Expert Views on FSG's Potential Sale of Liverpool FC – Deep Dives
The following deep-dive article involves two sides to the debate as to why FSG would sell Liverpool, if that's the case. (Less so about whether or not they should, albeit that's kind of covered in a less direct way.) I have no inside knowledge on this whatsoever, and yesterday I felt it to be highly unlikely; right now, it seems that there's enough smoke to make a fire seem possible, albeit contrary to the "where there's smoke there's fire", it could just be a smoke machine, providing an illusion. I genuinely don't know, but clearly something is happening, whether it's investment or a full sale…
Read more
3 months ago · 57 likes · 78 comments · Paul Tomkins

There was also the match against Derby in the first defence of the trophy we won last season.

The Tomkins Times - Main Hub
Derby County (Anfield) - Match Preview & Discussion Thread (Nov 9)
Match Preview and Metrics Just two games to play before club football takes a hiatus until Boxing Day, with the first of those two games the visit to Anfield of League One outfit Derby County for a League Cup 3rd round tie. Paul Warne’s side sit 7th in League One and started the season well with six wins, two draws and one defeat in all competitions but since the Summer turned to Autumn they’ve won four, drawn three and lost six…
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3 months ago · 23 likes · 238 comments · Gary F

There was also the match thread for our final league match of this section of the season, with Southampton visiting Anfield. Crucially, after the game, four or five regular post-match writers post their views in the aftermath of every Liverpool game.

The Tomkins Times - Main Hub
Liverpool vs. Southampton: *Bumper* Post-Match Analysis
Paul Tomkins, Andrew Beasley, Daniel Rhodes and other TTT regulars will give their thoughts on the match for 24 hours after the game, so the article received via email is unlikely to be the final version. There's statistics from the match and videos too…
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3 months ago · 28 likes · 40 comments · Andrew Beasley, Daniel Rhodes, and Paul Tomkins

The ZenDen

Someone who caught the eye versus Derby was young Scottish starlet Ben Doak, and here’s a small section from Paul’s analysis of him on The Zen Den:

I've been raving about Ben Doak since viewing all the age-group scouting footage when he signed in the spring, and whose every U18 and U21 game I've since tracked.

He has been my tip for the very top – and he didn't disappoint in a 15-minute cameo where he must have gone past the full-back five times (and only tackled once), and also skinned a man in midfield who couldn’t even get close enough to kick him properly.

He's the best (or most ruthlessly direct) teenage talent I've seen since Michael Owen at the same age, even if it's harder to break through now (more elite foreign players; bigger physiques in general in football in 2022, that make the leap from youth to senior football more of a challenge).

Now, a lot can go wrong: injuries; loss of motivation; big-headedness. But right now, the lad is special.

Doak is not a fancy-footwork showboating seal (no twirling the ball round and round before kicking it out of play), but almost old-fashioned, in that he is a push-and-run merchant, but in a sophisticated way, reminiscent of the best old-school wingers going back to Sir Stanley Matthews – enticing defenders, timing the perfect touch past them, then accelerating like a greyhound.

The Zen Den (Tomkins Times)
Why Ben Doak Is A Potential Superstar
For now, amid the confusion of the club's long-term future off the field, there were a ton of positives from the various young Liverpool lads last night on it. No matter who the owners are in a few years’ time, some of these lads will surely be part of the first-team setup…
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3 months ago · 24 likes · The Zen Den (Tomkins Times)

The Transfer Hub & Deep Dives:

Here’s the rest of the free section from Mizgan, including the opening paragraph in the preview below:

The striker has been linked with Liverpool in recent weeks, and his performances this season have been pretty decent. Though the sample size of his returns are not big, he has shown the potential to shine at the elite level.

Below, we will take an in-depth look at the player, his numbers this season, and compare him with other young strikers on advanced metrics and more. 

TTT Transfer Hub & Deep Dives
Youssoufa Moukoko - Scouting Report on the German Teenage Prodigy
Borussia Dortmund have a happy knack of giving young players a chance, very early in their development, to play for the senior team and then sell them at a higher market price. Youssoufa Moukoko is the latest example of that. The 17-year-old has been at the club since 2016, initially playing for the U17s and U19s before making his first-team debut in 2020, at the age of 15…
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3 months ago · 3 likes · Mizgan Masani

Dynasty

There was the last in the current series of Memorable Matches on Dynasty - and this was undoubtedly one of the best from Chris (and the Liverpools players involved in the performance of course!).

Dynasty – The Tomkins Times
Most Memorable Games, No.5
Should the day of reckoning finally arrive and we come to play our last ever game at Anfield - presumably because the world is about to end - then if St Etienne is the game that most Kopites will recall as the best atmosphere ever, then it’s very likely 13th April 1988 will be the one many recall the as the best performance in living memory. Yes, even better than the Spurs 7-0, the Barcelona 4-0 …
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3 months ago · 3 likes · Chris Rowland

The Small Print

This is a weekly newsletter mailout, and commenting is switched off.

Again: separate paid subscriptions are required for the specialist spokes. (Albeit there will be free content on these from time to time, and as with Substack, there is the option to receive free previews via email where applicable.)

The ZenDen is all about me finding positives, but it doesn’t mean there aren’t negatives. I provide a more rounded analysis on The Main Hub, but the ZenDen is for those who feel like they’re drowning in doom-and-gloom reactions and hysterical hot-takes.

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TTT Free Friday - 11th November

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