TTT Free Friday: Mr Optimistic, Rolls Royce Midfielders and Shiny New Signings

Friday 30th December, 2022

Free Friday will cover our work across The Tomkins Times’ Substack network, with it running via an opt-in or opt-out newsletter on The Main Hub (where almost all of the community commenting takes place), but covering TTT’s four sub-Substacks, or spokes.

It’s been a packed week, with no fewer than six articles on the Main Hub alone as proper football returned and the Reds had a tricky away trip to navigate.

TTT stalwart and game going regular Allen was pleased with the result, as well as the signing of Cody Gakpo.

It's not been a bad 24 hours has it?

Usually, I am Mr Optimistic, but last night I felt would be a real test and if they got an early goal, then the starved of success but always entitled Villains, would be lifting the roof. They have some good grit as well as attacking options and I thought any result would be a big plus.

Well, happily although very lively the villa were no match over 90 minutes for the redmen. It felt to me that we were starting to look like the team that we have seen over the last few years, strong, assured and with a flair that was a delight to behold.

I agree totally with Paul's observations re Nunez, he must be one nightmare to play against and he is definitely a coming storm. However, he was not alone and there were performances across the whole group who got on the pitch. Did anyone else spot that Rolls Royce of a midfield player who has spent too much time without wheels over the last few seasons? When Naby came on, I at least became calmer and so did the game. What an asset if he's fit to be able to come on and shut up shop.

Then we have Gapko, doesn't he make you dream of better times to come? He looks to have the perfect tools to make our offensive play unplayable.

Speaking of Rolls Royce's, that's how I described Stefan to my mates when I first saw him play for the kids. I think that I have gone from despair when Luis was injured to unbridled hope by what I have witnessed over the last 24 hours.

If St Jude arrives on Monday I will be searching for a Woolworth's window in which to exhibit my bits!! (An old Liverpool saying to describe a mixture of ecstasy and disbelief.

Up the Reds

TTT Main Hub

There was the pre-match discussion heading into the match against Aston View with Gary’s preview thread.

Just before this match kicked off though Paul published some long - and short - term analysis on the lack of penalties Liverpool have received in recent years.

What’s In The Box? Liverpool Need Christmas Miracles To Win Penalties – Years of Shocking Data

So, in the period where Premier League penalties per season has risen by 16.7% (100.5 per season, vs 86.1), Liverpool’s have fallen by 8.2%; despite being almost immeasurably better as a football team.

This season there have been 40 Premier League penalties already, on course for over 100 again. To repeat, Liverpool have won zero.

Liverpool’s battle for the top four this season has been hampered by injuries, but also, seeing as the underlying attacking numbers are as good as ever, the officiating. A penalty is an 80% chance to score. And a goal scored is worth, on average, one point.

All bar one of the 14 teams who have an attacking xG (expected goals) above 16.22 has at least one Premier League penalty, with that xG roughly half the xG posted by the elite teams (including Liverpool).

Yet Liverpool are the exception, having won zero penalties (teams with zero penalties highlighted below), with an xG roughly twice the minimum ‘entry’ level, at 29.58. And that’s 29.58 without the extra 0.80 per penalty, as they’ve had none.

Next up was the post-match analysis after the vital three points at Villa Park with a deep dive on many aspects of the match including various xG models, key match stats and the odd rant about the shite officials. Paul was first up with this look Darwin’s man of the match winning performance.

It was also pleasing to see Andy Townsend give Núñez the man of the match, as it was clearly a barnstorming display.

I don't think people understand finishing when they criticise Núñez. First, he makes things happen – his runs make the chances.

Second, at Villa he had a lot of airborne shots, either volleys or balls coming in at shin-height from wide that you can only look to help on (or dummy, which led to the first goal). The only one where he had the ball on the ground was the one where he stormed through and dragged it wide.

Against City, his shots were fairly poor, but from wide-right on his right foot, when the angle favours the left foot. Ideally you want him running in from the left, and the ball to be vaguely under control – not off the ground. And to be on his right foot. It’s not like he was missing sitters, but chances with a 30% likelihood of scoring.

The constant sniping at him can't help, and yet he's clearly a force of nature; the lame Andy Carroll comparisons moot as he's already nearly passed his goal tally (five in eleven, compared to six in 44 league games) and after inflation, cost only about two-thirds the price.

Luis Suarez was hardly prolific when he arrived, but the goals increased each season. Mo Salah missed a lot of big chances when he first arrived, too.

A striker who works hard, wins headers, stretches teams and makes things happen – and Núñez has nine open-play goals in a third of a season (in which he has also missed a few games) – is pretty damn good.

His job is to tire out defenders, work centre-backs, stretch teams, create space, and yes, score goals – but the primary aim is to help win games.

After the crucial win Reds fans had even more good news with the announcement - in double quick time with no hint of an impending deal - of the Cody Gakpo signing.

Not only did we have a 25 video for subscribers of various clips from Wyscout - but also Paul’s take on the Dutch international and the likely attributes he will bring to Klopp’s side.

Gakpo is not just some World Cup sensation, out of nowhere, but a properly developing elite talent, going up a level each and every season. He’ll have been tracked for ages, as he’s been one to watch for five years now.

And those goals are mostly from the left-wing, too. And while the Dutch league isn't the strongest, PSV are not the totally dominant side in the way that Ajax are; so it's not tap-ins in a team that runs riot every week.

Gakpo elevated his status at the World Cup – and will have gained great confidence from it – but is not some random left-field success, like El Hadji Diouf, who had done merely okay in France before the 2002 World Cup (he never did score many goals), and had a shitty attitude. Gakpo has been hot property since before the World Cup, unlike some others who simply shot to prominence there.

There was also the must read media round-up which has the pick of the best Liverpool-related media across the past seven days, including some encouraging words from Klopp about our performance.

“Klopp said Núñez had turned in an outstanding display and believes goals will soon flow from the £64 million summer signing.

“It is not as though he can close his eyes and they go in,” Klopp said. “With strikers, so many things are more important than scoring. We are completely calm and I really loved [how he set up] the third goal. After missing those chances, many of us would have just hammered the ball and forced it.

“The workrate he put in, the depth he creates for us, he is pretty much unstoppable. There is no defender who can catch up speed-wise. He played an exceptional game and we won 3-1, that’s all that counts.”

“We are not in the best position. There is distance between us and the top teams, we know that. The top two or three are maybe already too far away. If they win all their games, we have no chance. But a Champions League spot is the target. We have to do our part which means winning games and seeing how close we can get. As long as we can see them, we will fight.”

And finally (though not technically as we will have yet another *BUMPER* post-match tonight) is the pre-match thread - including Gary’s preview - for the visit of Rodgers’ Leicester City side.

Transfer Hub and Deep Dives

While Liverpool were working behind the scenes on a deal, Mizgan was penning the analysis of potential target Yunus Musah - currently with Valencia.

Yunus Musah - Introduction to Playing Style

Musah arrived in the Arsenal academy at the age of 15. He spent a year there before moving to Valencia. In terms of position, the 20-year-old is comfortable playing as a right-sided midfielder in a three or a four-man midfield. 

If we talk about this season, Valencia manager Gennaro Gattuso has preferred the 4-3-3 system, with Musah operating on the right of a three-man midfield. 

The American international is a naturally dynamic player who is comfortable in covering large distances on his side. He is good on the ball, can make progressive runs in the opposition box, possesses electric pace and is good at dribbling even in tight midfield spaces.

Dynasty

There was a superb look back at the festive fixtures in football from Chris Rowland on Dynasty.

In the Victorian and Edwardian era, a rare day free from work was reason to go to the match, not relax at home, a home which for most working class football fans would have been uncomfortable and overcrowded. The modern notion of a cosy domestic scene was yet to arrive for most, and football was one of the few entertainments available in the days before television. With no box to slump in front of, folk wrapped up and went out to watch football instead.

The first Football League match to be played on Christmas Day was Preston North End versus Aston Villa in 1889. But perhaps the most famous Christmas football match of all time occurred in 1914, achieving mythical status. The First World War 'Christmas Truce' saw around 100,000 British and German troops along the Western Front exchange gifts, sing carols, and play football.

Christmas Day 1957 was the last with a full league programme. The arrival of floodlights and evening games had removed the need for fixtures to be squeezed into public holidays, and many fans by now were preferring to stay at home with their families on Christmas Day, and the festive holiday period had become longer. The last English League match played on Christmas Day was Blackpool versus Blackburn Rovers in 1965. Liverpool’s last was against Grimsby Town in 1957 in Division 2, and we lost!

Festive Football

The Zen Den

The final part of Free Friday this week is Paul’s look at goalscoring supremo against Aston Villa and young Spanish maestro in midfield Stefan Bajcetic.

As seen above, Gerrard was 18 and skinny when he broke through in late 1998, and it was February 2000, over a year later, when he really started to blow my mind, when about to turn 20.

(A game I was at – against Leeds at Anfield on February 5th 2000 – was the best Liverpool midfield display I'd seen in the flesh by an individual since my first attendance a decade earlier, after increasingly good displays by the future no.8. That year, in one of the first things I ever had published, I put Gerrard in my all-time Liverpool XI in the official Liverpool matchday magazine, next to Graeme Souness. I'd seen the future, and it would be. And, it still would be.)

Bajcetic was 17 and skinny on debut. Both were just over 6ft, both could pass a ball, both liked a tackle, albeit Gerrard was ferocious in an era that allowed far more contact, including sliding tackles and even two-footed lunges if you got the ball.

But Bajcetic has two more years until he's the age where Gerrard was stealing the show and running games.

Remember – when comparing, always compare people at the same stages of their careers; just as you should never compare yourself as a novice starting something new to someone who’s done thousands of hours to become an expert. You can aspire to that level, but you won’t start at that level. Progression to become elite doesn’t automatically follow, but at 18, Steven Gerrard wasn’t a regular in the Liverpool XI, and hadn’t played for England.

You could see the energy of the young Gerrard, and the tenacity, but not the strength, and not always the skill. In his first 50 games he scored just one goal, dancing around a challenge into the box to slot into the back of the net. Bajcetic did much the same at the weekend, but in just his second league game.

Gerrard was quicker than Bajcetic seems to be right now, but Bajcetic has seemed to be getting quicker of late; having just turned 18, his body is still developing in all manner of ways. He'll add power in the next 12-24 months as part of a natural development, and even more in his 20s when he can do more weight training.