TTT Free Friday: Overreacting, Overplayed & The Legend of Liddell
6th January 2023
Free Friday will cover our work across The Tomkins Times’ Substack network, with it running via an opt-in or opt-out newsletter on The Main Hub (where almost all of the community commenting takes place), but covering TTT’s four sub-Substacks, or spokes.
We also currently have a bumper post-match analysis on the site, and now we’ll be having a similarly-sized - if not bigger - Free Friday and Daniel Zambartas’ media round-up will be added to best of TTT from the previous week.
The best comment of the week - on the aforementioned post-match comment thread - was from David (or MadchenKliop):
Lots of good reasoned comments on here, but I still feel the need to say that we might be over reacting. It was frustrating, but you have to balance that against the reality of our current predicament, specific to this one match:
1. We literally didn't have enough fit forwards for this game. We had a choice of Ox or Carvalho as the 3rd one. But the club have already addressed this.
2. Yes, we could have changed formation, but we only had 2 days preparation time. In the context of the schedule and the injury situation, I don't think this is the right time to focus on this as a deficiency.
3. For our 3rd midfielder we had a choice between Elliott (who wasn't supposed to be available because of a knock), Keita (terrible fitness record, future in doubt and only just coming back), Jones (not match fit) and Bajcetic (young/ unproven). All of them have potential, but none of them are stepping up and demanding to be picked in this moment. To date this season Elliott has come closest to taking up the reins, but hasn't really had too much competition because of the other player's availability. It's obviously not the situation we want, but the fitness of other midfield options has been freakishly debilitating and it's at least understandable that the club can't have 4 players on the book who they don't use - not just for money reasons, but for morale reasons as well. In terms of the LFC squad, this was a match crying out for a super fit and aggressive Keita performance. There's no point in digging Klopp and Elliott out for Keita not being properly fit or ready. Until he is replaced or miraculously rejuvenated we are a bit stuck and have to be patient.
4. The World Cup/ Fabinho having a baby. Konaté, VVD, Fabinho and possibly even Alisson, weren't completely in the groove. That's not so much an excuse, but it is a fact.
These are four significant reasons why LFC were weaker than they should be for this Brentford match and I haven't even started on stuff like their 1st goal being ridiculously fortunate. All four of them are being addressed as we speak. Most of it is to do with the club transitioning. I just think the problems are fairly transparent and sure, we've made mistakes, but running a successful football club is clearly not straightforward and we should expect to have periods when things don't go smoothly.
TTT Main Hub
Paul published a huge deep dive on the current Liverpool squad called ‘Age, Freshness, Fatigue: How To Make A Future-proof LFC XI From the Current Squad’.
One of the quotes referenced the amount of experience Harvey Elliott has had at such a young age.
Remember, at the same age, Paul Scholes – a small, technical, clever, buzzy but not super-fast player like Elliott – had yet to even play a professional game. (Scholes made his debut on 21 September 1994, less than two months before he turned 20; exactly four months away from turning 20, Elliott has played 93 games, for three different clubs.)
Another aspect of the article was whether players had been to the World Cup and how many minutes they’ve played since the start of 2021/22.
I prepared the above data during the World Cup, and was going to point out that van Dijk is surely due an injury, and that at his age, he should retire from international football if he wants to remain elite at club level; I never quite finished the piece, albeit I have noted in recent weeks about van Dijk being overplayed.
I just think players aged 31+ should quit their countries, to prolong their careers, albeit I see why they wouldn’t (and would grant an exception if it’s a World Cup year).
For Spurs, Son Heung-min has not scored in 23 of his last 25 club games. Had Mo Salah gone to the World Cup he'd probably be in the top five for minutes played, and Andy Robertson needed the break, too.
It would need a separate article about how clubs (and therefore club fans) pay the players but countries' FAs, UEFA and FIFA create more and more excuses to flog their countrymen, and make huge profits. Games, games, games, and more games.
Of course, after every game we take a detailed look at various aspects of the performance using xG, other key match stats, highlights, post-match press conferences and good old fashion opinion! And it’s fair to say there were a fair few of those after the performance versus Brentford.
Andrew Beasley gave his view on the defeat to The Bees.
I had to write a betting preview for this match. The bookmaker’s odds implied the percentage chance of a home win/draw/away win were approximately 17/21/62 per cent. Yet the expected goal data from this season spat out figures of 41/21/39 (excuse the rounding error). The likelihood of a tie was basically the same either way, but the stats tipped heavily in Brentford’s favour.
As such, I had to predict them to avoid defeat. While that may have been an unexpected forecast in the opinion of some, what was inevitable was how the home side were going to try to hurt Liverpool. I knew it, you knew it, Jürgen Klopp and his coaches knew it. Yet the players in green played like they hadn’t the foggiest.
And that’s what made the first half so frustrating. Had Darwin Núñez ended his barren clear-cut chance run at 0-0, maybe it’s a different game. Brentford relying on set plays and crosses to the back post was a certainty whether he scored or not, though, and Liverpool dealt with the threat so poorly.
By my count, Klopp’s triple substitution was the third instance of a manager doing this at half time in the Premier League this season. One of the others was also at Brentford, when Manchester United found themselves four goals down at the break.
The changes made little difference to the balance sheet. The team which began the second half was about £6m cheaper than the starting XI, and just 3cm taller between them in total. Whether the extra year per man counted for much, who knows? But the improvement was immediate.
There’s also Gary’s preview for the upcoming FA Cup tie against Wolves.
Dynasty
This week on Chris Rowland’s brilliant Past Masters series was a true club icon, legend and incredible player.
For Liverpudlians of a certain generation, Billy Liddell is still the greatest player ever to pull on the liver bird.
Certainly when it comes to all-time Liverpool greats - Dalglish, Gerrard, Scott, Raisbeck … Billy Liddell stands in no one’s shadow. The man who took King Billy’s LFC appearance record, Ian Callaghan, puts Billy right up there along with Kenny Dalglish and Steven Gerrard as Liverpool Football Club's finest ever:
"Billy was my idol when I was at school and it was fantastic to take over from him. He was a god in Liverpool. When Billy got the ball the anticipation from the crowd was just huge. What is he going to do with it? Is he going to shoot from 30 yards or take it past people? He was wonderful. Billy played with a heavy ball on the heavy pitches. The way he used to kick the ball, wow! He was so strong."
Born in Townhill Scotland in 1922, William Beveridge Liddell signed for LFC in April 1939, but because of the War didn’t make his full Liverpool debut until 05.01.1946.
A certain Sir Matt Busby had a part to play in Billy Liddell becoming a Liverpool player. Liverpool's former captain and later legendary Manchester United manager found out that Manchester City had enquired about Billy joining them, but he turned them down. Busby tipped Liverpool off, suggesting that "this Liddell lad might be worth an enquiry".
On that basis alone, Busby was some judge. Liddell became Liverpool’s talisman, to the point where they became known as Liddellpool. He was a thrilling, skilful, two-footed winger - fast, direct and capable of bursting the back of any opposition net with one of his trademark thunderbolts.
The Zen Den
Paul’s look at the Reds’ newest signing was the main topic of The Zen Den piece this week on New Years Day.
They had the chance to go for Gakpo, and looked a gift-horse in the mouth. £37m is a steal; cheaper, after TPI inflation, than the similar 2016/2017 and even 2020 fees paid for Sadio Mané, Salah and Diogo Jota. And less than half the price of Antony.
But how Antony, Maguire, and also how the expensive and tiny Lisandro Martínez does against bigger attackers when he finally faces some, are Man United's problems; as was dealing with Cristiano Ronaldo until they finally saw sense and booted him out.
We need to focus on what Gakpo can bring to Liverpool; and it seems that it's a hell of a lot. Especially with injuries to the two best options on the left wing.
Those underlying numbers won't be identical in a different team, in a different league, of course; but he'll still be in a dominant side, and his rapid improvements, year on year (like those of Núñez) – in addition to how he goes above and beyond with his own specialist tactical/development assistant – suggest a player who can still go up a level or two, to become ultra-elite: just like Mo Salah, Virgil van Dijk, Luis Díaz, Sadio Mané and others when they joined the Reds.
And while I don't like the fetishising of the need to constantly sign new players, you can't but be excited when a new young talent joins the club.
LFC Media & Transfer Roundup
By Daniel Zambartas
Extracts from pieces relating to Liverpool FC, with links to full articles
Pep Lijnders influence proves it is not just Jurgen Klopp pulling strings at Liverpool
The signing of Cody Gakpo, a brilliant young Dutch talent, World Cup star, and – perhaps most satisfying for Liverpool – a long-term target for Manchester United, was a spectacular way to start the new year for a club who had been struggling to keep their usual pace in the Premier League.
Yet even Liverpool’s Gakpo transfer coup was telling in showing how the club have been forced to address short-term issues in the transfer market while injuries to key players have stacked up. By the time the club fell to defeat to Brentford on Monday, 15 points off leaders Arsenal by the end of the night in west London, it was as much a case of those who were missing. Gakpo will probably begin his Liverpool career against Wolverhampton Wanderers in the FA Cup third round on Saturday, and his club need him to start in a hurry.
The three big injury absentees are Luis Díaz, Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino, and their rehabilitation has been frustratingly slow. Díaz and Firmino were both injured in training. Jota, who was carried off in the win over Manchester City on October 16, had already come back from an injury in pre-season, and he was not the only one absent in August. As Liverpool faced the second half of the season with uncertainty over when these three attackers might be available again, the Gakpo deal, with a potential full value of £45 million, was the club’s best option.
What has happened to the great Jürgen Klopp team of the era? Only they have seriously challenged the dominance of the Abu Dhabi-backed, Pep Guardiola City. Without Klopp and his players it would be a five-year City title hegemony. In that time Liverpool have become champions of Europe on a net spend that, in February of last year, ranked only 14th highest in the European game over the previous decade. They have had to fight against a range of clubs who have consistently outspent them. Yet now they face a struggle to make the Champions League places, a competition in which they have reached the final in three of the previous five years.
On Sky Sports on Monday night, Telegraph Sport columnist Jamie Carragher did not like what he had just seen of Liverpool and wondered about a change in their style to a less hard-running, more technical approach. “I don’t know if there’s an influence from Pep Lijnders who is Jürgen Klopp’s No 2, who has a huge influence on what goes on,” Carragher said. “Maybe a Dutch way of thinking; getting players on the ball.”
Certainly, Lijnders has a major part in key decisions at Liverpool. He returned to the club from the Netherlands after a brief spell as manager of NEC in the summer of 2018 at the beginning of two extraordinary seasons in which Liverpool won the Champions League and then the club’s first league championship in 30 years. As the recruitment picture has changed at Liverpool, so Lijnders’s influence on that side of the club has grown exponentially. The technical director, Michael Edwards, signalled his impending departure in November 2021 and his successor, Julian Ward, is now working his notice having assumed the role only in July.
Three of the four big signings that Liverpool have made in the past two seasons – Díaz, Darwin Núñez and now Gakpo – have been advocated by Lijnders. Which is not to say they have been bad acquisitions, just that a Dutch coach who spent his formative coaching years in Portugal has gravitated to players who have come of age in those country’s leagues. The fourth, Ibrahima Konaté, came from the Red Bull group, a reliable source of players in the past for Liverpool.
The signings do demonstrate the scope of Lijnders’s influence at the club.
Peter Walton on Klopp’s complaints about the referee vs Brentford
“It is clear that Brentford exploit their physicality, as shown in their 3-1 victory over Liverpool on Monday. They pack players into the box and that provoked a frustrated response from Jürgen Klopp, who claimed they “stretch the rules in offensive set pieces” and commit multiple fouls.
“The Liverpool manager does not have grounds to be aggrieved, however. The officials felt Brentford were not overstepping the mark in the context of the game and they permitted a fair level of contact from set pieces.
“There is a directive to clamp down on premeditated holding but Thomas Frank’s side did not cross that threshold. Stuart Attwell, the referee, would have been ready for Brentford’s style and he was consistent with the amount of contact he allowed. Klopp was outmanoeuvred by Frank, who ensured the game was played on the hosts’ terms.
“This firm but fair approach was evident with Brentford’s third goal, which came after Ibrahima Konaté went down under a challenge from Bryan Mbeumo, who then scored. This passage was a prime example of how Attwell was refereeing the game. Minor contact was to be allowed and, although it can be argued that Mbeumo committed a foul, in the context of the match this decision was consistent. The call was also in line with this season’s directive to allow some contact. Players will come together when chasing the ball and incidental collisions are not going to be penalised.
“Other teams are also using physicality to their advantage. Fulham are one of the most effective sides from set pieces and it is no coincidence that they, too, have caused the big clubs, including Liverpool, problems. Aleksandar Mitrovic can overpower defenders so Fulham will play this way.”
[Dan Z: What Walton fails to mention here is Mitrovic himself won a super soft penalty with minimal contact against Liverpool! And then there’s the penalty Arsenal were awarded; “minor contact is allowed” unless it’s a Liverpool player in his penalty box.]
The Times examines why Liverpool are struggling to nail down a top-four place (Written by Paul Joyce)
“The yawning gap — 15 points — between Liverpool and the Premier League leaders, Arsenal, appears insurmountable, though in other metrics the gulf is even more pronounced. Klopp has seen his side face 51 big chances this season, which is defined as a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score. The tally, which includes penalties, averages out at three a game.
“Only Leeds United (55) and Fulham (54) have a worse record in the top flight. Arsenal have faced only 19 such chances; for Mikel Arteta’s side the work of the defensive midfielder Thomas Partey has been key to that solidity. In contrast, Fabinho has endured great difficulties — although, in mitigation, Liverpool are far from a compact unit. Alisson, the Liverpool goalkeeper, has prevented nine goals already this season.
“In recent campaigns Liverpool have adopted a high-risk, high-reward approach when using a high defensive line. The sight of opponents breaking behind Liverpool’s back four is not particularly new: at the start of last season Brighton & Hove Albion, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and AC Milan all did so successfully. But, after 17 Premier League games last season, Liverpool had faced only 21 big chances (30 less than this season at the same stage).
Pressing problems
“The break in the domestic schedule for the World Cup allowed Liverpool to head to a warm-weather training camp in Dubai. It was a chance to reset and work on rediscovering the fundamentals of their success.
“The passes-per-defensive-action (PPDA) figure for Liverpool this season — that is, the number of passes their opponent is allowed to make in their own defensive and middle third of the pitch — is 12.2. That figure is the highest it has been during Klopp’s seven-year reign.
“However, within that average there are huge fluctuations. In Liverpool’s first seven games, the PPDA was 9.6. In the past ten, it has been 14.1.
Lack of ruthlessness
“Against Brentford, Liverpool could have been 2-0 up. Núñez was denied by Ben Mee’s goalline clearance, while Kostas Tsimikas shot unconvincingly at David Raya with only the goalkeeper to beat. Liverpool’s clinical edge is absent, as it has been all season.
“No team has had more big chances in the top flight in 2022-23 than Liverpool (who have not yet been awarded a penalty), but their conversion rate is the worst in the league, at 27.6 per cent. That is below Everton (28 per cent). They have scored less than their xG (expected goals) in six of their past nine league games.
“Liverpool have won every game in which they have scored first in the Premier League this term. They have conceded first in ten matches and only won one of those: when Fabio Carvalho scored a 98th-minute winner against Newcastle United in August. During the entirety of the 2021-22 Premier League campaign, they conceded first on 12 occasions.
Neil Atkinson’s review of the Brentford game on The Anfield Wrap
https://www.theanfieldwrap.com/2023/01/writing-brentford-3-liverpool-1-review/
“Before a ball was kicked this evening, I would have started with Keita. Had Henderson been fit, I would have started with Keita. Had it been decided Keita couldn’t start, I would have tried to start anyone but Elliott. Because I have watched Brentford.
“However, to then see Naby Keita be broadly speaking sound for 45 drives you even madder. If he can do 45, he can do 55. And then you bring someone like Elliott on.
“None of this is to say Harvey Elliott is solely to blame for tonight. Or that he won’t make 500 Liverpool appearances. It is to explain why, well, this is on the manager. I am solely asking why he is picked in the first place.
“His shoulders are broad enough. He shouldn’t go anywhere for 10 years as far as I am concerned. He isn’t and shouldn’t go anywhere until 2026 and he is a great man. Broad enough. But tonight was a big bowl of wrong and he is exposing a young footballer and he needs to pack it in for a bit.
“Our most calm and faithful centre-back was confused and lost. Our new young forward managed to get the ball in the back of the net but of course, offside. Agony. The lot of it. Drown your sorrows. Kick the sofa. Pound the cushion.
“Thiago plays well yet again for long stretches, but plays everyone into trouble in key moments. We are too too narrow and we get overloaded so easily. It has to be stopped with quick confident passing but none of that works.
“Ibrahim Konaté’s leg cannot be held responsible for the ball bouncing off it and into the goal. But all the defenders are responsible for basic errors of space and pace. Our high line only works with constant pressing.”
Klopp’s post Brentford comments
https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/first-team/457786-jurgen-klopp-s-verdict-on-brentford-3-1-liverpool
“The start in the game was really good; we had top chances, could have – [and] should have – scored there already before Brentford had their first corner. I know people don't want to hear it, but they use everything in these moments and that’s why it is really difficult to defend. I have to watch it back, but I am pretty sure we could have probably won the header in the first-post area. Then the ball goes through, Ibou couldn’t see the ball when he arrived there, gets it on his knee and the ball is in. You know before the game they are really strong there, you cannot avoid all corners and these kind of things.
“The game got decided by the second goal in the end, which is absolutely our fault and nothing else. We got away with an offside or whatever it was. That’s all OK and then we are not awake when they just go directly against our line again. They can cross the ball and there they score the second goal and that decided the game in the end.
“We felt the intensity of the game and then in the moment when you try to settle again, we conceded a third goal which should have been disallowed because it is a full-throttle sprint from two players and when you then get a push in this moment, you can lose balance and you go down. It is, of course, not a harsh foul or whatever, it is just a little situation, whistle it away but Stuart Attwell saw it differently.
“The VAR who checked it, they hide then generally in these moments behind the phrase it is not clear and obvious. So, the second goal decided the game, the third goal shouldn’t have been allowed and we should have played better.
“Through set-pieces, Brentford have always the chance to create chaos. That's what they do and they do that really well. I respect that a lot and it is really good and well-organised and everything, but we had a lot of chances in not a top, top, top-class game. We still had these chances and that's what we know, we have to improve that, in other moments – the second goal – it was a present to Brentford and that’s the one I am really angry about.
“The others, one should have been disallowed the other is unlucky. Yes, it doesn’t feel great. Your BBC colleague asked me how much below we are to last year and he compared the two games – when we played a 3-3 here. I thought tonight we had more chances than we had in that game, so that's OK and the rest was the same wild and chaotic game like that time. They put everything in, we took the fight – it’s not that we didn’t fight, not at all – but in the end we are responsible for the defeat.
“Virgil felt a little bit the muscle but said he is fine, and he's a very good judge of these kind of things. But I didn't want to take any risk – the physios looked quite happy when I said we don’t take risks. But I think it is not an injury, he just felt the intensity. Yeah, the other two things were tactical. We had obviously had the opportunities. We could bring Naby, who I think played a really good game, and Robbo – and Robbo with the first action after half-time was exactly what we needed. We needed that speed in behind and so that was the reason for these two changes.
“So we can change our position (in the league) only by winning football games and tonight is obviously the opposite, so we didn't gain any points, cannot take anything from it. How I said, we have to win football games and that we have a lot of players not available in the moment, you can see that in changes and when we change it's now not that we can just throw in offensive players and stuff like this to give somebody a rest or say, 'OK, come on, you did enough for today.' So they all pretty much have to fight through. That's the situation and nothing else.”
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain issues honest assessment on Brentford defeat
https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/alex-oxlade-chamberlain-issues-honest-assessment-brentford-defeat
Oxlade-Chamberlain added: “[It was] tough. We just weren’t good enough. We knew it was going to be a difficult game, we knew their threat around the set-pieces and we didn’t do well enough. We got away with a couple of [goals] with VAR ruling them out, but they were the warning signs and in the end we conceded a sloppy second goal after the restart after we sort of got away with that.
“Then at 2-0 it’s difficult. I think at times we did well and we created some good moments but we didn’t carry on doing the same things that got us that success. We came looking for the ball to feet a little bit too much I think and stopped offering in behind and causing them problems.
“I’ve watched Sadio and Mo play that position (on the wing) for years and one thing that they have both done outstandingly well is provide goals for the team. Obviously it’s a bit different when Darwin is playing through the middle because he is such a threat in behind, and usually when Bobby plays that role he’s the one that drops a bit deeper and it fills the half space.
“So, that’s been kind of my role from there, being the one that drops deep and tries to link but then ultimately get up with Darwin’s pace and Mo’s pace and get in and around the box. That’s the thing I think in the last few games, I’ve been missing that real goal threat. So, it was nice to get that chance and take it. But it’s a shame it doesn’t mean anything and the overriding feeling is disappointment.
On getting sharper with every game he plays: “I think that was evident tonight with the way I felt in the game. It is massive is rhythm and I’ve had the opportunity now to have three [starts] on the spin and I feel good for it… I know when I’m playing and when I get the opportunities in that role I need to do more and provide more to impact the game. That’s what was lacking and for any forward, or attack-minded player, goals, or creating chances, are massively important and that’s no different for me.
“Luckily [getting a goal] tonight was good for me moving forward, but ultimately the main thing is I didn’t manage to get a second and I’m sure Mo and Darwin will be thinking the same. If we had got that second and brought it back to 2-2 at that point maybe things could have been different. But it’s hard to think of any positives as the overriding feeling is just disappointment and it wasn’t good enough overall.”
Jonathan Wilson on Liverpool’s issues in the Guardian
“If football really was the simple game of cliche, it would be easy for Liverpool to identify a single issue, work out a solution and put it right. This, after all, is the team that have, for five years, been consistently the second-best side in England. Yet, after a shambolic defeat at Brentford, they lie 15 points behind the leaders, Arsenal, and, more pertinently, four points off Manchester United in fourth, having played a game more. What must be most troubling is the sense of plates across the stage stopping spinning as Jürgen Klopp dashes frantically between them.
“… Exactly what has gone wrong with the press is hard to say. The changes to the forward line perhaps haven’t helped. Planned as some of those have been, others have been imposed by injury, with Luis Díaz and Diogo Jota long-term absentees and Roberto Firmino struggling with a calf problem. In that context the signing of Cody Gakpo for what these days feels a relatively modest £37m initial fee probably makes sense if only to provide cover. He is a curious player, with a skillset that seems not quite to match his body shape, but he anyway was unavailable as he awaits a work permit after his move from PSV Eindhoven.
“But there are also issues with an injury-ravaged midfield. There are absences everywhere. It was injuries that underlay Liverpool’s slump during the Covid season and there will be those who wonder just why this side seems so susceptible. Perhaps it’s bad luck, perhaps it’s related to the relentless intensity Klopp demands or perhaps it’s simply evidence of an ageing squad in need of rejuvenation.
“And that demands money, and that requires qualification for the Champions League.”
Klopp compares Nunez to Lewandowski (via the Athletic)
https://theathletic.com/4044362/2022/12/29/liverpool-klopp-nunez-lewandowski/
“Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp has compared Darwin Nunez to Robert Lewandowski, explaining how players can take time to find their goalscoring form.
“He has scored nine goals in 23 appearances this season. However, Klopp revealed he had no concerns about the Uruguay striker.
“There are a lot of similarities (with Lewandowski) to be honest,” said Klopp. “Yes, I think Lewy would tell the same story.
“We had shooting sessions where he didn’t finish off one. We had bets all the time for 10 euros – ‘If you score more than 10 times I will pay you 10, if you don’t you have to pay me’.
“My pocket was full of money. It’s all about staying calm. When you see the potential, stay calm. It’s so difficult in the world we are living in.”
“He also added that he saw progress, saying: “But it is all coming. You do it like this, the next time you do it like that. I had this situation with Lewy but it is not only Lewy. He is the obvious comparison, I understand.
“It’s just about staying calm and I am super calm. The team is calm as well, the team is completely convinced and that’s really cool.
“Let’s hope we all, him included, stay healthy and then everything will be fine.”
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