TTT Free Friday (Returns!) – 28th October 2022
The Tomkins Times’ Substack Network In a Nutshell
One thing I’ve been planning for a while is to bring back erstwhile favourite Free Friday, which seems to suit the new format of The Tomkins Times.
Free Friday will cover our work across The Tomkins Times’ Substack network, with it running via an opt-in or opt-out newsletter on The Main Hub (where almost all of the community commenting takes place), but covering TTT’s four sub-Substacks, or spokes.
We’re also still dealing with the various admin challenges of moving a whole website from WordPress to Substack (and transferring all subscriptions), as well as trying to spread the new content over the different spokes (each of which will succeed or fail depending on how many pay for this more bespoke content, with each spoke funding the writers who lead those projects).
Note: separate paid subscriptions are required for the specialist spokes. (Albeit there will be free content on these from time to time, and as with Substack, there is the option to receive free previews via email where applicable.)
New Free Friday!
The format will be (at least) one of the best posts of the week, followed by links to the articles across the TTT network. (This will exclude the the match previews from The Main Hub, as good as they are.)
Plus, maybe something from the archives, and at times, anything else that takes our fancy.
I’m setting up this first one upon the feature’s return, but the whole team can help take it from here.
A Few Thoughts
First, a few quick thoughts from me, as I haven’t been writing much this week (due to various personal reasons explained on the site).
In addition to the articles shared below, there were also the two post-match roundups, Nottingham Forest (a) and Ajax (a), in a mixed week, but where the general trend – despite little respite from injury, and the Forest blip – has been promising: after just three wins from the first nine games across the league and Champions League (after winning the Community Shield), it’s now five wins from the last seven, which, at 71.4%, is actually above Jürgen Klopp’s exceptional average at the club. This includes some tougher than normal games, too.
(Plus, the Arsenal defeat hinged on two very debatable penalty decisions, while the tired-looking defeat at Nottingham Forest, as the third big game in six days, largely hinged on Virgil van Dijk heading the ball as if his forehead were suddenly Marouane Fellaini’s elbow.)
Both the first nine games and the next seven games are small samples, but if you can panic after the first batch, you can take solace from the second.
Equally, I just don’t see how anyone can expect a settled side and constant results – even now – without Luis Díaz, Diogo Jota, Ibrahima Konaté, Joël Matip, Thiago, Naby Keïta and Arthur Melo, with Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Calvin Ramsay “fit” but not match-fit. (Others are just getting fit, like Curtis Jones.) Plus, Darwin Núñez’s hamstrings are being managed, and others are carrying knocks.
People still keep talking about Sadio Mané, but Díaz was superb this season (and last); and Jota can match Mané’s output. If Mané had an Arsenal player fall on his knee (as happened to Díaz), Mané would be no use (plus, he’s another in his 30s, and transitioning the team means losing some older players). Núñez, while still settling and a little raw, is outscoring Mané too, on a per-90 basis.
On the 30-somethings, Liverpool need to build around defensive leader van Dijk (with the younger, super-fast and strong Konaté the ideal partner), Thiago (the conductor), Mo Salah (the finisher), Alisson (world-class keeper), and for this season at least, Bobby Firmino (the magician), with Matip, James Milner and Jordan Henderson (reborn in the diamond) important squad players.
Pick four or five, and give them runners, and all is well; not six, seven or eight (but at times, it’s been a case of picking who is fit). To still have Mané would only muddy those waters, and Díaz is more than good enough, as we showed on the site. Freak injuries happen, and Díaz was rarely injured before (he’s played over 350 senior games already, aged 25).
I’ve said since the early games that getting to the World Cup in a decent position (and in the Champions League, it’s been another big success) and then get a “proper” preseason in during warm weather camps, with all those who don’t go to the World Cup (if fit again after serious injury) in good shape for the remaining 24 league games (and the transfer window opening with 22 league games remaining – you’d think one or two additions would make a lot of sense). As things stand, Liverpool should not have too many players run into the ground in Qatar.
I noticed a quote from Klopp that summed things up: “To be really clicking you need consistency in the line-up and we haven’t been able to do that. It starts with injuries and then the problem is that players who don’t have injuries have to play too often and then the players who come back from injuries have to play too early. No moaning, no complaints, it’s just the situation.”
Next, a comment from the post-match Ajax thread:
A lot of positives to take from that – no goal conceded in the first 20 minutes, which is a must in away European ties. We may not have had control but we got defenders into positions that shots were blocked or forwards put into positions where it was harder to score. Like Paul's comment on Nunez's miss, I think Berghuis's shot was harder than it looked, he was going away from the goal shooting at a narrowing angle as Robbo and Allison between them have most of the goal closed off. Then he hits it "too sweetly" for spin to take effect so it goes directly against the post. It is a let off, sure and a better forward (Tadic or Bobby) probably bury that, but I'll note that it a right footed shot by a left footer. Would Salah or Elliot have buried the same shot, maybe not.
Brian Kerr on the Irish coverage made a pre-match comment about Ajax that was prophetic: "if you up the tempo Ajax can't handle it". Now in order to do this the press has to be cohesive and/or you have to have the ball, for most of that first half neither were happening for Liverpool or it wasn't effective. That seemed to change in the 10 minutes before half time (I had to scan watch the first half so I'm not sure was Robbo's shot the catalyst or the result of getting to grips with the game) and the spell between 35 mins & 55 mins finished the match.
To say we scored 3 in 10 minutes, missed one gilt edged chance and had two other good chances in that period but the xG calls the match a draw (1.15 v 1.51 on infogol) shows just how fine the knife-edge that match was on and how important the first goal was. That said, if we'd had a bit more luck away to Napoli and we'd have scored first I think they would not have been as free flowing as the became.
I'll note that if we were to swap Milner for Henderson & Diaz for Nunez we have the team that started away to Napoli, so the difference in finishing ability is stark (and it perhaps shows the relative quality of the leagues - Ajax don't get many games like that were Liverpool get it every week). Also, barring the shot that came from a deflected pass int eh second minute Ajax didn't get themselves into the positions that Napoli did (or get two handy penalty decisions - there were none to be given last night).
Looks like a 4-clear-goals win is required against Napoli (still trying to figure out of 3-0 will do it on head to head as it has done in the past) next Tuesday night with Spurs following on Sunday. Spurs will have to try to get a result away as bottom of that group could still top the group with a win (and they happen to be hosting spurs next Tuesday night) so no harm in giving the first half a right go.
The Tomkins Times’ Substack Network
First, this piece from last season came to the fore again last week, with it referenced in a piece in The Athletic, and it shows the contributions we can get from some of our subscribers (many of whom are literally world-class at data analysis):
TTT Main Hub
Mizgan Masani ran the numbers on chaos-monster Darwin Núñez, to show just how how dangerous he is as a striker – before he added yet another goal, in just an hour or so on the pitch, against Ajax:
(Note: we’ve had to make the headlines to our post-match pieces neutral, as people around the world would get to see the score via their email inbox before they got to watch the game.)
The ZenDen
I had a few positives at the start of the week, after the Forest defeat, and hopefully I’ll be back doing 2-3 ZenDen pieces a week very soon, once I’m not doing the visiting schedule at the hospital (and trying to manage my own health condition, which I tend to manage okay if in a simple routine, but which really takes a battering at times like this; although at least I’m only visiting the hospital).
Transfer Hub and Deep Dives
In the week, Mizgan took a detailed look at Jude Bellingham, to see what all the hype is about:
Dynasty
In the third part of his series on our historical Liverpool FC Substack, Chris looked back at Nottingham Forest v Liverpool, December 26th 1977:
This Red Planet
Nothing from Daniel this week, as he’s been covering for me on The Main Hub, but we have a few really interesting pieces lined up.
This is the recent explanation about what we want to do with the This Red Planet spoke:
The Small Print
This is a weekly newsletter mailout, and commenting is switched off.
Again: separate paid subscriptions are required for the specialist spokes. (Albeit there will be free content on these from time to time, and as with Substack, there is the option to receive free previews via email where applicable.)
The ZenDen is all about me finding positives, but it doesn’t mean there aren’t negatives. I provide a more rounded analysis on The Main Hub, but the ZenDen is for those who feel like they’re drowning in doom-and-gloom reactions and hysterical hot-takes.