Why Roberto De Zerbi’s Football Ticks The Right Boxes

If Xabi Alonso cannot be procured, De Zerbi looks as good as anyone else

Ah, Roberto De Zerbi, scourge of Liverpool FC the past 18 months.

Paired with David Coote, scourge of Liverpool FC for years.

And Paul Tierney, scourge of Liverpool FC for years.

Before assessing De Zerbi’s chances of, and suitability for, the Liverpool job, it’s worth wondering if Paul Tierney, in his 23rd game as a VAR for the Reds, will finally give a VAR overturn in Liverpool’s favour? This is the longest run of games for any VAR without a decision in a club’s favour.

(Stuart Attwell with 20 without one for Spurs is next. Attwell has also done Liverpool an astonishing number of times as VAR, and hasn’t given a single penalty to Liverpool, but did send off Paul Pogba for his assault on Naby Keïta.)

The average subjective overturn ratio for a VAR (so, not offsides) is one every 0.17 games, or every sixth game.

Tierney has given just three in his 22 for the Reds so far, ahead of his 23rd game; but all for Manchester clubs playing Liverpool – none for Liverpool.

That he had a clear chance to do so versus Bournemouth and chose not to overturn a ridiculous red card for Alexis Mac Allister adds weight to his unsuitability, as both he and the almost-as-bad Stuart Attwell, dominate Liverpool games to the point where each has done many more games since the introduction of VAR than Roy Hodgson managed as the Reds’ manager.

Then there’s Coote, who missed a clear penalty for Liverpool in his only previous Anfield league game as a ref, and as VAR missed Jordan Pickford’s manic propulsion into Virgil van Dijk, and who missed Martin Ødegaard’s handball in the recent Anfield clash, could have done much more wrong in the mere 12 games he’s reffed/VARred the club.

As an aside about Attwell, given who the Reds are playing, he has given Brighton four penalties as a ref, in just 12 games, and only one against; for Liverpool, it’s three penalties for and three against, in 12 games. As a VAR he’s done Liverpool 26 games so far and not given a single penalty, but given Brighton three penalties as a VAR in less than half as many games (12). Again, these things can be random, but…

It would be a chilling scenario, if many of the alternatives weren’t almost as bad (and three of the better refs are based on Merseyside and not allowed to do Liverpool or Everton, when all Greater Manchester refs do both Manchester clubs).

It was summed up best this week with the quote:

“I worked with you f***ing lot every f***ing week last season. It’s the same every f***ing week you c***.”

(I’d have left it without the asterisks, personally.)

I mean, Liverpool do literally have this f***ing lot every f***ing week. The quote was Steven Reid talking to Paul Tierney.

Indeed.

De Zerbi

I always used to judge managers on what they’d won, and want a “winner” for Liverpool, at a good age, and on the up. Someone whose ideas would scale up, not just bring mid-table outcomes due to mid-table ideas.

As seen with Borussia Dortmund and Jürgen Klopp, Valencia with Rafa Benítez, and indeed, Bayer Leverkusen with Xabi Alonso.

But at some point you have to appoint them on what they could possibly win; get to them before they do the big winning.

There are also lots of managers who have won things who will not be suited to Liverpool at this point: Zinedine Zidane, Jose Mourinho, Antonio Conte, Diego Simeone, Max Allegri and, it would seem, Erik Ten Hag (successful at Ajax), not that he’d even be considered; and perhaps even Carlo Ancelotti for different reasons, should Madrid boot him out for a younger model.

I loved with Klopp (and Benítez before him) that he’d taken a big – but not mega-big – club to two league titles and a European final in three years, as Rafa had also done at Valencia. That was such tangible, perfect evidence: a good sample size of three seasons, and unprecedented success, without the aid of big spending; having done well to get smaller clubs promoted before that.

While Benítez’s time with the bigger clubs has passed, his Valencia were known as The Crushing Machine for good reason, and remain the best team I’ve seen live at Anfield in terms of smothering the Reds. Then Klopp gegenpressed his way to success in Germany, with a talented young team.

But aside from Alonso, and what he’s on course for, there don’t seem to be many of these types right now, certainly in the major European leagues.

Klopp got in there just before Bayern’s hegemony cemented itself, in part by the giants raiding Dortmund for star after star: Mario Götze on the eve of facing off in the 2013 Champions League final; then Robert Lewandowski the next season; then Mats Hummels soon after.

Imagine Man City buying, or procuring for free, Mo Salah, Alisson and Virgil van Dijk one summer after another, back from 2019 onwards. (And still having Pep Guardiola as manager.) Indeed, the frees are even worth, as you can’t pay to replace them.

In Spain, only Simeone, with his anti-football during the abnormal pandemic period, has broken the Real Madrid/Barcelona duopoly in the past decade (his previous title being way back in 2014). Simeone suits his club, which is why he stays there.

No one in Portugal has broken out to the extent Jose Mourinho did 20 years ago (it’s always the same three clubs), and in France, it’s PSG or bust.

And both Guardiola and Klopp have made it impossible for anyone bar Mikel Arteta to even compete in the past few years, and Arteta is an Arsenal fixture, only likely to ever leave for somewhere like Barca (if they get their finances in order) unless he’s sacked.

So the scope for “winners” is more narrow now.

Even the domestic cups tend to be hoovered up by the Titans, and domestic cups are so patchy in terms of the XIs fielded by clubs of all sizes, until the finals.

Indeed, but for Jürgen Klopp, and the way FSG and Michael Edwards built up the club a decade or so ago to set the platform and provide those early players, then Man City would have won every title (instead of virtually every title), and had no close challenger; and in 2013/14, Liverpool managed it under Brendan Rodgers (at a time when Man City were already allegedly ***** ** ******** * ******* ****** * ***** * *** and also ***** * ****** *****).

A couple of months ago, when the news of Klopp’s impending departure broke, I identified high average possession levels (used in a positive manner) as almost more important now than trophies.

I don’t know if data analysts were drawing similar conclusions, but that’s how it looked to me.

This was a big change to my way of thinking, but the way football has changed in recent years, including playing out from the back and keeper-players, has made possession football more important than ever, as anti-football (which I’d term anything less than 55% possession, especially with a bigger club or larger budget, and certainly anything 50% or less).

Anti-football is a pejorative term, but I see now evidence anywhere that anything other than Ultra-Possession works in 2024. (Anti-football may work again in the future, but right now, it’s very ineffective as a long-term strategy.)

Within single games you can still counterattack your way to victory, but not over seasons.

Ultra-Possession

I’d term Ultra-Possession as 60% or more, as a season average.

And very few teams can achieve it on a smaller budget.

Yet De Zerbi’s Brighton is one of them, achieved with raw young things and often fairly washed-up old things, and achieved with players no one would have thought too much about.

De Zerbi may prove too fiery, or flighty; you want a fighter, but not too much of an internal fighter. You want a firefighter, but not also a firestarter (twisted or otherwise).

But while the best big clubs – those with bigger budgets and status, who don’t just look to counterattack – all now average around 60% possession, De Zerbi is an outlier in getting a smaller club there.

The big clubs who average 55% possession or less are now generally 3rd-6th, or worse, in their league tables, bar Italy, where the possession shares are generally grouped closer together; but where the one truly thrilling team of recent times, Napoli of last season, were Ultra-Possession.

I looked at the major European leagues in the past three years, for c.270 “team seasons”, and plotted their season-average possession against the xG Difference (like goal difference but just based on xG), and also the more outcome-related points per game.

I broke the possession down into 11 bands, ranging from the worst (low-40s) to the best (mid-60s), with a minimum of 12 teams to a maximum of 35 teams per band.

The r2 value of possession vs both xG difference, and points per game, is 0.96 and 0.97 respectively, meaning an almost 100% correlation between the two.

(Remove just one team, Las Palmas, and it gets even closer to 100% on both; while the 46-48% band is oddly ineffective, and perhaps just a blip.)

Correlation is not causation, and possession for possession’s sake seems flawed; but the German top three (including two ‘unfashionable’ clubs) are all Ultra-Possession. Bayern aside, both were fighting relegation last season.

Stuttgart’s was +60%, but is now just a fraction under, with Dortmund 58.1% and RB Leipzig at 56.5% the only others above 51%, and they also sit 4th and 5th in the league table.

Indeed, the German top five are currently, in exact descending order, the best five clubs for possession, with Leverkusen top, at 62.9%, and Bayern 2nd.

The top three in England, battling for the title, are all Ultra-Possession; as are Spurs, who could go 4th if they win their game in hand.

(There’s a fifth Ultra-Possession team, too … Brighton.)

PSG are Ultra-Possession. Real Madrid and Barca are Ultra-Possession.

And in Italy, Inter Milan are not Ultra-Possession, but only Napoli (last season when they were sensational, and this, when less so) have been Ultra-Possession in Serie A; and Inter hover around the 55% mark, which makes them stand out a bit more from the likes of Jose Mourinho’s Roma, who were 48% last season, and Juventus, who have been sub-50% for the past two seasons. In Italy, as noted, 55% possession is high.

Not to be wise after the event, but I looked at Juventus’ low possession at the start of the year and thought “how are they doing so well?” … since when they’ve fallen away quite severely.

Ultra-Possession teams like La Liga’s Las Palmas can fail to challenge for the title, but with over 60% possession this season, but would they be even mid-table without it? I just checked to see where they finished last season, and realised that they were actually promoted.

An individual club won’t automatically achieve success just by having 60% possession across a season, but no successful club will have less (bar Inter). The chart below uses a 58% possession average as a cut-off point, and shows Inter as the outliers, but in an outlying league. Otherwise, the 16 best xG Differences (above +0.85 per game) are 59% or over.

Ditto De Zerbi’s Brighton, who massively overachieved last season. Brighton average 62.3% possession this season, with an injury crisis, having had his best players sold, and still with a group of players who are mostly ‘ordinary’.

And as noted, Stuttgart and Leverkusen are both massively overachieving with 60% possession or more.

It’s not as simple as just having a lot of the ball; you have to use it. But you can control games.

And also, the teams with c.60% possession almost always have the highest share of touches in the opposition box, at up to 1,400 per season, with lower possession teams rarely getting above 1,000 and even less rarely above 1,100.

All of the bigger clubs with 48-55% possession (Italy aside) seem to now be also-rans, if that.

The best teams have Ultra-Possession. But does Ultra-Possession create the best teams? When you look at the clubs who can afford to play this brand of football too, and see how far short they are falling, there’s a case that it’s now a necessity.

(And while Aston Villa are around the 55% mark, this was also what Unai Emery achieved with Arsenal, for similar results; the difference being expectations and budget.)

The money spent by these clubs and the cachet they posses is damning off their last 1-2 seasons in their leagues.

Alonso and Stuttgart’s Sebastian Hoeneß have shown than you can go from c.50% possession in a season to 60% the next season; while De Zerbi instantly upped Brighton’s from pretty high to super-high, something I thought he was delusional to suggest was possible when he first arrived. (More fool me.)

What’s odd is how three massive clubs who play low-percentage possession football are exactly 17 points off the pace, despite lots of elite attacking players in these teams who often use a packed defence too.

• Manchester Utd, 50.4% possession. (17 points off top spot.)

• Atlético Madrid, 51.2% possession. (17 points off top spot.)

• Newcastle Utd**, 52.9% possession. (24 points off top spot.)

• Juventus, 48.9% possession. (17 points off top spot.)

• Roma (last season), 48.6% possession. (27 points off top spot.)

• Roma this season (before Mourinho left, well adrift in 9th)

** A major injury crisis is a mitigating factor

So, there’s almost no way on earth that Roberto De Zerbi could not keep Liverpool in the key Ultra-Possession zone, and given the way he works, improve it; only, with far better players in goal, in defence, in midfield and in attack.

But will Liverpool go for De Zerbi if they can’t get Alonso? And how does the appointment of Richard Hughes change things?

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