A List: My Pledges to Readers, Klopp, LFC, for the Rest of 2022/23 and into 2023/24

People like lists. Here's a long list.

Some facts. Some reality. Some hopes. Some lists.

For the rest of the season, and beyond, these things are worth remembering. I'm posting this before the Chelsea game, after which ten league games remain, with all of the trickiest away games done. This is something I'll pin to the homepage, as a reminder.

Some are general observations, some are more specific.

Manifesto

I wanted to put up a kind of manifesto for the rest of the campaign, so as to not keep needing to state the same things, given that the big picture only shifts imperceptibly with every setback, and often, the same with any win. (But our emotions shift massively with each.) And a body of work is part of the bigger picture. Repeated proof of brilliance earns trust.

It's why you'd have trusted Paul McCartney to, on average, write a hit anytime between 1962 and 1982, and expect less from the songwriters of the band Dave Dee, Dozy, Beaky, Mick & Tich.

Proven quality – excellence, genius, or whatever it is – never guarantees success. Nothing guarantees success. McCartney still wrote "Why Don't We Do it in the Road", after all.

However, unless excellence fades with physical or mental decline, there is no need to dismiss a body of work, until you're sure it's firmly in the past. Managers can remain at the top for decades if they have the right people around them; especially if they are elite man-managers and genuinely charismatic leaders who players want to play for.

Anyway, a list. I hear people like lists.

It's a fairly long piece (over 6,000 words), designed to be read and reread, but as it's a list it breaks it up a bit more. (Apologies for the lack of line-breaks, but wanted to keep each numbered point to a single paragraph.)

1. Jürgen Klopp is, pound for pound, the best manager in the world; the only one, I believe, to win league titles with non financially-doped or oligarchical clubs in two major countries, and to take those teams to a total of four Champions League finals from low starting positions. (This was also after taking the poorest club in the 2nd tier in Germany into the top flight, and when Klopp took over at Dortmund in 2008 they were more-or-less bankrupt.) Klopp has just said, in taking some of the heat, that he's only still in the job because of his past, but it's because of a prolonged record – 20+ years – of overachievement; and because he's the ideal fit for Liverpool, then and now. He's earned a lot of leeway, but it's also a reminder to his players that he's not just blaming them.

2. FSG's model is FSG's model. Sustainability is vital in football, and they have taken the club from being barely in the top 20 in the Elo rankings when they arrived (below Shakhtar Donetsk, Arsenal, Valencia, Marseille, CSKA Moscow, Bayer Leverkusen and Lille) to 1st twice, with the one in 2020 the 4th-best Elo ranking of all time; and the club has won every single trophy possible since they arrived, ignoring trophies that you can't qualify for if you do too well to enter them (Europa League, Europa Conference League, etc.) Liverpool were also ranked the no.1 side in the world less than a year ago. A lot of this is tied to Klopp, clearly; but from 2011 and 2012 the owners employed the people who later went for Klopp at a time when he was seen as waning (wouldn't you know, he had a bad season, based largely on bad luck), and the owners personally sold him the vision and gave him the tools to work with, in a way that other club owners failed to convince him.

3. Klopp, FSG and Liverpool in general face challenges that didn't exist decades ago, and some that didn't even exist a year ago: sovereign state wealth, where owners lie about whether they are the government of a country or not; using that wealth to financially dope, and to try and litigate their way to success when they break the rules, while often these regimes commit genuine atrocities in their homelands. Football should not be about who has the most filthily rich owners pumping in the most money, legally and/or secretively.

4. If Liverpool fans want that kind of owner, then we have diverged too far, and you need not bother yourself again with anything I write (although it would be nice if you gave your head a shake). If "you can't beat 'em, join 'em" is your motto, then football is doomed. Trying to keep up with sovereign wealth or massively borrowed spending is also dangerous, and then you have a situation like Chelsea, where almost £600m is spent in a season by venture capitalists trying to blow the doors off the top four with money the club hasn't earned yet, and finding only chaos so far and worsening results (and spending additional fortunes in hiring and firing managers, that leaves them in danger of breaching FFP). All these clubs distort the market and make life harder for sensible, sustainable clubs; but ever since I saw what happened to Leeds 20 years ago, I was convinced that sensible, sustainable spending is what Liverpool needs. Chelsea remind me of Leeds 20 years ago, albeit they may still be able to fashion an elite team out of their 35 senior players and the dozens more out on loan, if they get the right manager. (If not, well ...)

5. Again, Liverpool almost had the greatest season in club football history last season; two games where they missed out by a single goal, from doing a cup double to landing the unprecedented quadruple. The latter game, the Champions League final, was undermined by Liverpool fans being abused and arguably tortured by police to the point where many did not get into the ground, and those who did could not sing because of shock and teargas. The integrity of a game should be called into question if one set of fans is largely omitted. The league was lost by the narrowest of margins (yet again) to a club under investigation for 10+ years of financial breaches; rules that most other clubs have to stick to, and rules designed to stop unfair advantages, where all that matters is how rich your owners are. Whether or not people agree with the rules, they are the rules, in place for a dozen years or more, and sport is only legitimate if everyone plays by the same rules. Liverpool have been pushing hard to match and beat those clubs for years.

6. This season has been a bit crap. Clearly. But as I've noted before, extra-gruelling seasons and truncated preseasons in shortened summers can be hard to shake off. I noted before how Declan Rice, and before him, Michael Brown – both high-energy British midfielders – found themselves lacking energy the following season after long campaigns that were not even as long as the Reds' 2021/22 (Rice's numbers are also well down this season, to back up how knackered he said he felt).

7. Lots of injuries correlates with fewer wins. This is logical, but is seen during Klopp's tenure (six or more injuries is where it really starts to get bite, and that's often been the minimum rolling figure most of this season), and also shown in large-scale studies of football over many years. It's logical. If you can't play all your best players, you'll struggle over bigger sample sizes (i.e. not just a game or two, when you might sneak a win). Then, whoever does play is at greater risk of injury. Injuries beget injuries, unless you have one game a week and can manage everyone, so no one goes into the red-zone. No one's backups can be as good as their first team, although Man City seem to magically manage an über-squad; and none of us know how they do it.

8. It could be that Klopp's playing and training style is more conducive to injuries, as it's about intensity and pushing the envelope. This is to make up for the lack of resources compared to the financially-doped or oligarchy-backed clubs, when playing as many (and sometimes more) games than them. Liverpool had got better at 'resting' in possession in recent seasons. But the team made too many tired mistakes earlier in the season, when trying to conserve energy. Even so, there needs to be an inquest across medical, physio, conditioning, etc., to work out why this season was so bad – beyond the preseason difficulties and things like collision/fall injuries, where no one (apart from perhaps an opponent) is to blame. Similar issues were seen in 2020/21, after a similarly disrupted preseason, and the Reds came back stronger in 2021/22. (Edit: it must be a challenge to constantly train and play with a high-intensity over long periods of time and not get injuries, but obviously work needs to be done on finding a way. I’m not sure a lower-intensity style would work as effectively, and it’s difficult without truly massive resources to rotate players without a drop in quality.)

9. Liverpool have experienced scoreboard and league-table pressure this season due to the jaded start to the season, and often not had the extra energy to overcome; especially after five full years of going full-tilt, to overachieve almost every single season. Starting games slowly and ending them struggling is a sign of fitness/energy issues, and obviously football becomes more tiring when you're losing and chasing the ball. Again, read about Rice and Brown (not brown rice), as their experiences were very revealing.

10. Liverpool needed new midfielders last summer, and as I've noted before, nearly got Aurélien Tchouaméni (who chose Real Madrid for the same fee paid), tried hard for Jude Bellingham (which continues and may pay off this summer), and got caught up in agent shenanigans over Moises Caicedo. By January, Liverpool had several strikers out with long-term injuries. As such, getting in Cody Gakpo early made total sense, even if a midfield solution had to wait to the summer; but by then, Stefan Bajcetic was a genuine midfield option. If waiting for the ideal midfielder pays off this summer, it'll be worth it, even if there's short-term harm in the interim. As it transpired, the emergence of Bajcetic was a real joy in 2023.

11. The team had often been too old this season, until Klopp refreshened things up with the brilliant Bajcetic and the fast-improving Harvey Elliott. As I've noted, long-term injuries in the first half of the season mostly hit the good-age players: Ibrahima Konaté (23), Luis Díaz (25/26), Diogo Jota (25/26), Curtis Jones (21/22), Arthur Melo (26), Naby Keïta (27/28, after a rare 'healthy' season), as well as Calvin Ramsay (19). This limited the ability to blend the team. Elliott, 19, also struggled for form at times, as teenagers tend to do – but is having more good games than bad right now, and developing all the time. Darwin Núñez (23), also had to settle in, sit out 3.5 games due to a ban, and then, as well as going off to the World Cup, has had four or five short-term injuries, including a couple of hamstring strains, a wrenched shoulder and a badly-cut ankle. Elsewhere, for a player who was 28 when the season started, Fabinho has played like someone who is 38. (Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, also in his 20s, missed the first half of the season.) Of all these problems, only injuries to Keïta and Oxlade-Chamberlain seemed highly likely, yet last summer, when no suitable midfielders could be procured, it made sense to keep them (especially if they refused to leave, as Keïta may have done, given his contract, and the appeal of being a free agent in 2023).

12. Barring the failures of last summer in terms of landing a suitable midfielder, Liverpool's player recruitment remains elite. That said, things were complicated during the Covid season, when contract renewals were sensibly put on hold, at a point when hundreds of millions of TV money had to be paid back, and it wasn't clear if that would happen the following season. (And if Gini Wijnaldum at 33 is the answer, or an ageing Sadio Mané who has also finally had injuries this season, then that's just more older players hanging around.) Diogo Jota, Thiago, Konaté, Núñez, Díaz and Gakpo provide pace, creativity, goals and in most cases, massive future potential. Kostas Tsimikas has been a pretty decent backup full-back and good value for money. (Fábio Carvalho is a promising youngster, as is Ramsay, and it’s too soon to judge them.) Arthur Melo, on loan, has been a massive failure, due to injuries, and joins Ozan Kabak and Ben Davies as failed short-term solutions that solved little, if anything. Melo is a bit of a joke figure now, but he played with Alisson and Roberto Firmino in winning the Copa America in 2019, and his previous clubs were Barcelona and Juventus. He worked extra-hard with a personal trainer to get fit after not having had a preseason, then did some major damage. If he’s on the bench again, it’s because he’s a good player who has worked hard to get fit once more.

13. Generally, all kinds of teams tend to get better with more time spent together, as shown in lots of studies that I've quoted for a few years now. But it can also pass a point of peak efficiency, and due to the injuries in particular, that probably happened to Liverpool in 2022/23.

14. Klopp has said at various points this season that the team needed new players, and midfielders specifically. It's not been a secret. But it's no good if he keeps saying the players he has are not good enough. That's self-destructive. That said, with so many players nearing the end of their deals (and who couldn't be shifted out last summer), and with a few at the fringes of the team clearly unhappy (and everyone fed up with results), the atmosphere probably isn't great at the moment. There's a sense of uncertainty over the future of a lot of players, and that can drag the vibe down. A summer break can help resolve that.

15. New signings can bring new hunger and energy. As I've been pointing out this week, they can revitalise the older players, particularly Virgil van Dijk and Mo Salah, who both have tons of quality left, but where both appear to be losing a fraction of the pace that made them the best in the world. A faster, stronger, taller, fitter, hungrier, more skilful midfield will help the players behind them and in front of them. When Salah can be brought frequently into the game, he's as good as ever. But the midfield weaknesses can leave him a bit bereft. I worry that van Dijk, nearing 32, will struggle mentally with no longer being the best centre-back in the world – who previously just had to look at strikers to make them give up. Now they can sprint past him. But in the right team, he can still be a leader. Of course, if he really starts to slow, the high line the Reds need to use becomes trickier. But again, the players around him can help. (I also want to see all Liverpool players in their 30s retire from international football, but obviously that's their prerogative. But those who do retire seem to prolong their club careers, and get much-needed rest periods during international breaks. People need to realise they can’t have it all, and we all reach points where we have to make choices.)

16. Some players are imperfect, but still good enough. I have issues with Andy Robertson's final-third product beyond those lovely whipped-in first-time crosses, but he gives you 10/10 for effort every week and mostly defends brilliantly. He has the necessary energy. Trent Alexander-Arnold is not the world's best defender, but is not yet at his peak, and his creative numbers are still excellent. His body language can be 'off' at times, and he has low-energy games, but again, a better midfield would help both full-backs. Indeed, having a really quick defensive midfielder would help cover for the full-backs better than Fabinho can, and will also help chase deep runners from midfield, who beat the offside trap. I feel that the midfield struggles have dragged the rest of the team down, albeit that doesn't mean everyone else couldn't have done a bit better at certain times. Also, a new midfield won't automatically, immediately and magically improve things, but logically, it should provide a much better chance than the current group of players, who lack key attributes, like pace and energy.

17. Indeed, the major issue this season has been that the midfield has no pace and no running power, beyond perhaps Oxlade-Chamberlain (who missed the first half of the season and is more of a front-three backup), and for his age, Jordan Henderson does okay, but isn't what he once was. Naby Keïta's running power has waned spectacularly, with time and constant injuries, and Fabinho was never a fast chaser over bigger distances, even before his serious, sudden slump this season. Thiago Alcântara was a good presser in tighter spaces, but also cannot chase back at pace, and is 31. James Milner still presses well, aged 37, but again, can't cover the big distances with pace. Once the press is beaten, there's no recovery pace in the midfield. The midfield also lacks height/heft when certain combinations are chosen, and energy, or leadership, when others are chosen. Harvey Elliott is very busy and energetic, but not the quickest either. Stefan Bajcetic, a thoroughbred footballer at 18, had energy and stated that he just loves to run. He made a big difference to performances. But he then suffered a serious injury, perhaps from being overplayed, but where options were limited, and he had been in the team on merit.

18. Luis Díaz is simply a brilliant footballer – skill, energy, creativity, goals. He lifts the team. But he's been out for about six months. He is one of only two Liverpool players who really "over-score their xG", the other being Gakpo (who ranks in the top 10 out of 100+ strikers I have now assessed, and outscores his xG every season for clubs and country; as such, it suggests he is an elite finisher, on a par with Sergio Agüero, rather than someone who bags lots of goals due to tons of chances. The key is to get him into goalscoring positions more often, as he knows how to finish with composure and accuracy).

19. An exciting new dimension of how the Reds are trying to play, as I noted once he started playing there (when in fairness I hadn't seen him as suited to the role) is when Gakpo turns in the middle of the pitch and runs forward past midfielders and defenders. In the 3rd minute at Man City, he turned Rodri and Rodri tried in vain to haul him back. Rodri then successfully hauled him back two more times in the first 35 minutes. The City tactical-fouler got just one yellow card for those three yellow-card fouls. As with refs not giving Mo Salah free-kicks, protecting Gakpo's right to run with the ball without being rugby-tackled has to be raised. A couple of decisions have gone for Liverpool this season (Fabinho should have been sent off in the cup for one bad tackle, for starters), but more have gone against, and that makes life harder. (As this site’s stalwart Andrew Beasley explained to me, it's so long ago that it was Sadio Mané – for Southampton – in Klopp's first home game, that the last player was sent off for two yellows against Liverpool, when in that period of time, the average would be six, or almost one a season. Currently it's none in seven seasons.)

20. Like second yellows for opponents, Liverpool also still don't get penalties. Liverpool are well below my 'expected penalties' metric based on xG during the past several seasons. As my research shows, the Reds rank 10th for Premier League penalties received in Klopp's entire tenure, and this season, 18 Premier League teams have received more penalties than Liverpool. (18 clubs have at least two, or twice as many!) On average, a penalty is worth almost one goal, and one goal scored is worth roughly a point. Liverpool's one penalty this season was awarded by VAR, and VAR conversion rates drop significantly due to the long wait (Salah missed, which is rare for him, but backs up the point on the long wait). As such, no on-pitch referee has given the Reds a penalty this season. Fulham, Brighton and Brentford are amongst those who have won 5-7 penalties, and that means more points for them. None have better attacking metrics than Liverpool. Meanwhile, the Reds have conceded three times as many as penalties they've been awarded, despite better attacking figures. (That said, the Reds' defending has been poor this season, clearly, conceding too many big chances; to my mind, largely down to the midfield issues, but individual errors at the back, too.)

21. The seriously outdated myth that Liverpool get too many decisions means, I think, that refs hardly give Liverpool any big decisions; certainly the data suggests as much since 2015. When the Reds do get a big decision, neutrals (who aren't really neutral) display their confirmation bias to go "Look! Another big decision for Liverpool!". If nothing else, Klopp must just be very, very, very unlucky for his team to to get so few penalties and for players to rarely be sent off against his team, especially for second yellows, even across a period as one of the best teams in football history. (As I've previously noted, only a couple of referees have a positive balance for giving Liverpool decisions above what might be expected; all the rest are below what might be expected, and those tend to be the refs given to Liverpool more regularly, with Paul Tierney both the worst – yet to ever give Liverpool a single big decision in nearly 25 games (beyond one the VAR told him to) – and the ref most regularly given to the Reds, who has given multiple big decisions against Liverpool. And again, Klopp gets big decisions nowhere near as much as Brendan Rodgers did when he was Liverpool manager, despite having a worse team overall, to show that this is not necessarily about saying how unfair it is against other Premier League teams, but how unfair it seems against previous Liverpool managers – with British Liverpool managers getting far more penalties per season since 2004 than foreign ones, despite the foreign ones having the best teams in that time, bar one season for Rodgers. It's especially harsh for Klopp; almost as if refs also don't like him. He does shout at them, but never questions their integrity, unlike other managers. He gets driven mad by things like Mo Salah often averaging 120 minutes per free-kick won, albeit that has improved a bit of late; but he’s still no Jack Grealish for winning free-kicks as he hasn’t perfected the leg-dangle-and-dive.)

22. As pointed out in the site's comments, American sports allow for bad seasons. Football punishes bad seasons by things like relegation, and failure to play in the Champions League the following season; American sports reward bad seasons by allowing preferential draft picks. But even so, bad seasons happen, and no one sets out to have a bad season in any sport. A season is still often a self-contained entity, not tied to the outcome of the previous one and not defining the next one, because of the 2-3 months of off-season that bookend them. Everyone starts with a fresh, and refreshing, blank league table.

23. Liverpool clearly need to spend money this summer. But to also avoid churn. Two or three high-quality midfielders, and another centre-back if Joël Matip leaves; all ideally aged 23 and under (maybe one with a maximum age of 27), but also, 100% ready now (allowing for time to settle in). The forward-line is in place and just needs time to work on practiced movements, and to gradually understand each other's games, and also the new roles individuals might have. Rather than spend on squad players, it's often ideal for newer players, if they make an instant impact, to push the best existing players to the bench, and for those to become mere squad players (until it's time to sell them), and for younger players to evolve slowly into the squad-player positions too. That way, if the attitude is right, the displaced players will fight hard to win their places back, and also have the shared understanding of how the team plays when they step in as rotation options; a new squad player may never get much chance to blend with the team. People often expect masses of signings, but I've shown in various pieces this year that teams can be transformed by just two or three. Indeed, both Chelsea and Nottingham Forest are currently making strong cases for the folly of signing too many players, and how it's hard to get them all to train together (Chelsea need several training pitches) and you end up with 20+ unhappy squad players undermining the manager and creating a bad vibe.

24. I've talked about the Reds' 'Magic Dozen', as I call them: 12 players at the club aged 17-20 who have seriously impressed me in the first team, the U21s or out on loan. Ben Doak, 17, is a potential superstar, as I noted when first seeing him in the U18s, having first followed his progress in Scotland. Bajcetic has already shown his quality. Kaide Gordon, still only 18, is an elite talent who, like Ramsay, has missed the season with growth-related issues. Jarell Quansah is a giant, fast 20-year-old centre-back leader out on loan; and though he naturally tired a bit in his first full season, Tyler Morton, 20, has played almost 50 games for Blackburn this season. Conor Bradley, 19, is an absolute flyer of a full-back/wing-back, who has also played 50 games this season, including starring for Northern Ireland. (He's just won a cup with Bolton, too, and is near the top of almost all their attacking metrics, as well as some defensive ones.) There are others, too; and newer ones, including Keylor Figueroa, emerging in rampant style with the U18s. Not all will succeed; but to me, the odds seem good with this bunch.

25. It's not that other clubs don't have comparable talents, especially if they've spent fortunes on buying teenagers – but that the ones the Reds have will be ready to fill some squad spaces, at the very least; and likely produce more for the Reds next season than several first-team players have this season (as some have produced next to nothing). No one had to teach Bajcetic how to play the Kloppian way, as he was already at the club, training. He didn't have to settle into Liverpool, or learn English in 2023, as he's lived in the city for a few years. By next season, all of these players should be significantly better, if they remain focussed and injury-free. Every year at that age can see a huge improvement. Many are at least at the stage where Trent Alexander-Arnold was as a skinny 18-year-old, getting a few minutes here and there until Nathaniel Clyne got injured.

26. While he could prove pivotal and even transformational, Jude Bellingham must not become an obsession. Still, I think he should join Liverpool, wherever the Reds finish; for reasons I've noted many times. Klopp has said he wants people who will push the train, not just get onboard when it's at full steam, and Bellingham fits that profile (as well as being someone very close to various people at Liverpool FC, and his absolute idol is Steven Gerrard; plus he never followed the money but the 'project' when moving to Dortmund). Equally, if he doesn't sign, it's a big chunk of money to spend elsewhere. All that said, his type – talented, strong, energetic, and with precocious leadership qualities – fits the bill. To me, the main thing that would make the deal fall through would be Klopp no longer being Liverpool manager, as clearly he's someone top players want to play for (and if you're at Dortmund, you'll be extra-aware of what a legend he is).

27. In addition, build around the key core 16 of Alisson, Salah, van Dijk, Alexander-Arnold, Thiago, Henderson, Díaz, Núñez, Gakpo, Jota, Bajcetic, Elliott, Konaté, Robertson, Jones and Gomez, and see what kind of XI can be formed from those players – when taking into account the important new arrivals, and anyone else who graduates from the youth/U21s/loans ranks, such as, if fit, Ramsay, Morton, Bradley, Quansah, Doak, Gordon, Clark, Chambers and the technically-ready but lightweight Carvalho, if he bulks up a bit (albeit maybe some will go out on high/higher-level loans. I'd also keep James Milner for his general leadership skills but expect him to play fewer minutes; and I'd use it to move him into part-time coaching, maybe with the U21s, where he could also play some games as an overage player – if he agreed to it).

28. Possibly look to sell Caoimhín Kelleher (with a definite buyback clause), Fabinho, Matip, Nat Phillips and possibly Kostas Tsimikas (and maybe one or two younger players who won't make the grade), but not necessarily them all. But that could raise £80m, and the wage savings would be added to the hefty savings made on Firmino, Keïta, Arthur Melo and Oxlade-Chamberlain. It should be possible for eight players to leave and only four or five arrive, with promotion from within the ranks (and Gakpo brought forward, so he was essentially a summer 2023 signing to replace Firmino, just as Díaz arrived six months before Mané departed.)

29. Liverpool's form, fitness, energy, confidence and belief may have fallen a long way this season (along with the number of fit players), but that doesn't make it permanent. They are inter-related issues that can be resolved in different ways, as noted (some canny new signings to reduce average age and increase energy, a proper preseason after a proper summer break, emergence of younger players, greater cohesion with more time spent together for Gakpo, Salah, Núñez, Jota and Díaz, along with the three newer ones adjusting more to the Premier League; and so on). Other clubs can 'fake' fresh starts and new 'panic' energy with a managerial sacking, but that's a short-term fix. Just as when Bob Paisley or Bill Shankly (or Alex Ferguson at Man United) had bad or mediocre or disappointing seasons, they went again a year later, and usually it was much more successful.

30. The Champions League is important, but not essential. The key is not to be out of it too long. But obviously there are more clubs now contesting places in it.

31. The higher the expectations the less enjoyment you’ll get, especially if you just expect wins. Because even dull wins, lucky wins, or wins when you’re well ahead but then concede late on, feel underwhelming. Draws are a disaster and defeats are the end of the world. Equally, if you live for schadenfreude you'll die by schadenfreude.

32. On a personal note, I'll do my best to remain calm and rational, in an increasingly irrational and impatient sport, where the constant acceleration of demands and the insane investment from sovereign states and venture capital (and younger generations used to instant-everything) is outstripping reality, as are the increasingly unhinged reactions of fans of all ages. Madness spreads from social media to real life, and we all need to be way of who sets the tone of conversations. (If it's set on Twitter, then it's usually bad news.)

33. I’m bound to have forgotten or overlooked some stuff.

(Edit: just to be clear, I'm not saying that Klopp hasn't made mistakes, should anyone have that impression – but any role that involves hundreds of judgement calls each week, and sometimes hundreds within a 90-minute period, will get plenty wrong, and even good ideas can go wrong. It's why I also don't praise a manager for something like a substitute who scores a goal, as it's often random, and the manager doesn't control the act of a player taking a shot well or badly, and you don't know if the player subbed off might have done something good. Even so, I've not always felt the team selection was right, starting the season with Joël Matip instead of Konaté, as I said at the time, which indirectly led to Konaté getting his knee battered in the 'B team' preseason friendly, and then some of the older lineups before Klopp introduced Bajcetic; I really disliked the cover of Pep Lijnders' book because it made it look all about him and not the team, which I think was a “bad look”; and Klopp was part of the failure to recruit a midfielder last summer, even if there were extenuating circumstances discussed in this piece. In general I don't tend to micro-analyse managerial decisions – unless something really hard to fathom, and even then I don't have even a fraction of the same information that a manager has – but just judge on the much bigger body of work, if the manager is a good fit and not out of his depth.)

CONDITIONAL TERMS

Okay, the above also depends on the following.

1. Vitally, Liverpool need to be united behind the scenes. That hasn't appeared to be the case at times this season, with tensions, rifts, and departures; as can happen in all walks of life. If everyone pulls in the same direction, the summer can be a big success. If everyone is pulling in different directions, that rarely ends well. The return of Mike Gordon to oversee things, and the promotion of Will Spearman as head of research, suggest things have settled down, as with the club seeking investment, not a full sale. A new Director of Football will arrive at some point, but deals should be in place before then. I've explained the difficulties faced last summer and in January, but if Liverpool don't add some quality midfielders this summer, it will be difficult to fathom.

2. The club needs to spend money. Not money it doesn't have, but the money it should have, even if without Champions League football next season (as wages will fall in line with that, if that happens). I've noted that across the summer of 2019 and the summer of 2021, Liverpool signed just one senior player: Konaté. Each summer was the start of an outstanding season, due to the shared understandings being better than adding lots of new players. But this is different, due to the age profile of the squad, and clearly everyone knows that. Even so, if the Reds signed just Bellingham and Ryan Gravenberch, as two examples, the average age of the XI could be down to 25.5 for next season, from up near 30 at times this season.

3. Klopp will know if the players need to be called out in public or chastised in private; or given encouragement, to lift the mood. He'll need to have the players onboard next season and working as hard as they did prior to this season. What managers say to the press is often tactical, and not always honest. But when it is honest, you know. A manager can't look like he's continually making excuses for his players, and if they're fatigued, it's not always wise to say that they're too tired to play. A manager won't want to give his players excuses, but everyone should know the difference between excuses and extenuating circumstances. When Klopp has had 10 players out injured, he can't say "we stand far less chance now" as that's defeatist; but equally, his team will stand far less chance. Managers who don't play the media, who don't know how it can twist things, get eaten up. An article about Graham Potter after his sacking at Chelsea referred to him undertaking "his post-match media duties in trademark maddeningly measured style." (Yeah, fuck that guy for being measured. But equally, he did seem overawed, and that’s never a good sign.) Anyway, if the Reds get a good preseason, and get in the players they need, and don't have an injury crisis next season, there will be fewer genuine excuses. I'd also expect a massively improved season as a result.

4. Managers pass their sell-by dates, but the best ones move with the times. I would always back a previously successful manager, in the right circumstances, over an unproven one, but neither guarantees anything for certain. There has to be an element of faith. And so I have faith in those who are proven (and at the right club), not least, unlike players, managers don't age-out at some set point. Alex Ferguson, aged 65 – ten years older than Klopp right now – was totally written off in 2006, with his team full of "has-beens" and "never-will-bes" (including Cristiano Ronaldo), yet he had the core of his best-ever side, just waiting to age-in, and in need of a couple of additions. Mikel Arteta was written off at 39, and written off last season; I'll admit I didn't see the huge leap forward made by Arsenal, but they were a young team knitted together over time who aged-in together. Klopp won't have lost his magic touch, and Pep Lijnders is still a cutting-edge coach. Liverpool still have great analytics staff and elite scouts.

5. Equally, the Premier League moves fast; new ideas, masses of investment; indeed, insane levels of investment; better and better managers arriving; and so on. Many clubs have specialist set-piece coaches. But better to have an overall expert at the helm who is a great fit for the club, than to have the chaos of finding a new manager, a new fit, and having the almost-guaranteed implosion you get when an overarching, overachieving manager is replaced by someone who can never be as good, and who enters the job on a hiding to nothing.

6. Liverpool need to be smart where possible, but just not smart for the sake of it. A canny free transfer (such as the mooted Evan Ndicka, if that's true), would look like a wise move. Plus, a return to the edge-finding differences the Reds had in the past, when first introducing a throw-in coach (now everyone works on throw-ins to keep possession). There needs to be joined-up thinking, but Klopp is clearly the leader of the process. A new Director of Football with great ideas – but who clashes with Klopp – helps no one. The Reds need synergy, cohesion, shared ideas. Klopp also has to make use of the many smart people at the clubs, on scouting and analytics. He will need to work with the new Director of Football after this summer, and to be challenged by him, but it needs to be collegiate, not adversarial. No matter how talented the individuals, if people don't pull together they just pull things apart.

7. I will continue to back Klopp (and his staff) whatever happens, and FSG, whatever happens, within reason; i.e. barring anybody doing some crazy shit, or next season being an absolute mess. I believe in the sustainability model, so I'm not going to change from that, especially after success beyond my wildest dreams since 2015 (as someone who grew up during the halcyon days). Liverpool could lose the final 11 games from this point and nothing would change that for me; other than next season would clearly have to be much, much, much better (instead of just much better). But bad seasons happen. Seasons often used to trail off – we've just become spoilt under Klopp, where they never have. Two bad seasons in a row is another matter, but again, it would need to be assessed in context.

8. That's why I generally want to stay positive, as I feel I can see the light at the end of the tunnel. (To be clear, I’ve given up in the past on Graeme Souness, Gérard Houllier, Roy Hodgson and Brendan Rodgers before they were sacked, so I’m not just relentlessly positive; but to me, Klopp is still elite, and still the right man – as long as the club is aligned in its thinking. I don’t give up on the right managers – but whether new manager, or existing manager, nothing is ever guaranteed in football.) It was different with Rafa Benítez, whom I kept faith with at the time, as it later became clear to me that he'd lost half the dressing room, and the previous owners were clueless doofuses who hated the Spaniard, and whose cowboy antics got the club into debt, and had to sell players to pay it off. I backed Rafa, as he was still elite back then, but it became clearer to me over time how the situation had become untenable behind the scenes.

9. [EDIT] One thing I overlooked, and have added here as an edit, is whether or not Klopp still wants to do the rebuild he’s on record as saying he’s going to stay around for. If the season were to trail off badly, then he may feel he’s lost some of the players who were going to be part of that rebuild; especially as some may have been dropped and not just rested for the Chelsea game (but it could be a bit of both). I always think a summer break heals a lot of issues, where everyone gets a bit of time and space to cool down (and everyone gets a break from each other after 9-10 months of intense interacting, before bonding again in preseason), but sometimes managers make decisions before that chance to decompress (you could argue that both Bill Shankly and Kenny Dalglish, the first time, did so). I’m not saying that this will happen, but whereas I can’t see Klopp ever being sacked, I could see him walking away if he feels he can no longer motivate the players. (Plus, if he does stay, a rebuild may be greater if he feels badly let down by players he planned to rely on in the remaining 10 games, after the 0-0 draw at Chelsea.) The number of players who know they’ll be leaving in the summer, or fear they'll be leaving in the summer, is also probably not helping; with various newer and younger players not necessarily feeling fully settled and proven either.

10. Everything in this piece should remain true for the remainder of the season, and I don't want to keep repeating it. If Klopp resigns, or FSG say there's no money after all, then I expect there to be a lot of understandable unrest and frustration; but to me, the occasional slightly shitty season is par for the course as a football fan. You get variability from season to season. I don't want to deal with constant panics or rushes from people to prove how this is the ‘worst ever Liverpool performance’, and that where Liverpool are right now is formed in stone.

11. We have to learn to suck it up, embrace the struggle, and accept the schadenfreude, for the short term, even if we don't enjoy it. Then try and come back much stronger next season, when written off – just as the Reds did last season, and at various times before. Indeed, failure is often the best motivation for success.