Liverpool vs. Arsenal: *Bumper* Post-Match Analysis

Paul Tomkins, Andrew Beasley, Daniel Rhodes and other TTT regulars will give their thoughts on the match for 24 hours after the game, so the article received via email is unlikely to be the final version. There's statistics from the match and videos too.

Post-Match Thoughts

Paul Tomkins

For a good majority of that match, in between a slow start and a shaky end, it felt like a far-from-best Liverpool XI had the beating of Arsenal.

Liverpool now have their first and second-choice left-backs with dislocated shoulders, a first-choice (at the time) centre-back out for the season, the first-choice no.6 still recovering from having his thigh sawed open to the bone by a dangerous boot, with Luis Díaz playing on post-traumatic adrenaline (and now injured as well) because Diogo Jota is still out, then this was nowhere near Liverpool's best XI.

And playing against what is Arsenal's best XI, who had a full week to train, whereas Liverpool had a combined 135 minutes to train, much of which was recovery.

The Reds were all over Arsenal for the second half, but the later subs, perhaps as players like the impressive Curtis Jones tired, couldn't get into the game.

Liverpool should have had a penalty for a blatant handball when Martin Ødegaard slipped and handled in panic, rather than slipping onto the ball.

David Coote has very famously screwed Liverpool as the VAR before, but as Mo Salah equalised before too much longer it wasn't one of those that changed the game too much. But Bukayo Saka could have had four yellow cards; England darlings rarely get sent off, and can foul with impunity, as Harry Kane knew all too well. Yet another foul injures a Liverpool player and it's not even a yellow.

It was an odd game for Liverpool in terms of final pass and shot decisions, which I'll get onto in the second half of my piece. It wasn't really a game for big chances, being more gladiatorial and frantic in a swirling wind. But the Reds had the big chance to win it, with the world's first ever 5 vs 1 breakaway in a top-of-the-table clash.

Before my match analysis, a quick reminder about the context, which to me, defines this season so far.

Non-Defining

I never saw this as a season-defining game, and whatever happened, the table would remain fairly tightly bunched at the top.

To play Man United (with their eleven behind the ball), a cup quarter-final against a top-8 side and then Arsenal within six days is the kind of run that other clubs will be facing (and with knobs on) from February onwards.

You cannot be at your maximum in such a short space of time, and for all teams, results will suffer to some degree (opposition difficulty + lack of preparation and recovery time, which gets 'squared' when it's a longer sequence; each subsequent game is more testing and tiring, if still no proper recovery time, and injuries mount, and as noted, there's no time to properly prepare).

Of all the important context, I'll keep reminding people of these three key things:

1) Liverpool have gone away to Man City, Spurs, Newcastle, Chelsea and Brighton (and no promoted has come to Anfield);

2) Man City, in particular, but also Arsenal, to a high degree, have tougher second halves to the season with a buildup of really big games starting in February, which will only increase when they presumably get through their 'easy' rounds of 16 in the Champions League (and I’ll revisit this nearer the time, as I think both could come unstuck);

And 3) Going into this game, Arsenal (seven) and Man City (eight) have 15 players who have played more minutes – and in some cases, significantly more minutes – than anyone for Liverpool, if you include the Community Shield, the European Super Cup and the Club World Cup, as well as the domestic cups, the Premier League and the European competitions.

Mo Salah, top for Liverpool minutes, ranks 16th of the combined three squads; Dominik Szoboszlai 18th; and before the next Liverpool player between 16th and 22nd (Trent Alexander-Arnold) come two more City players and two more Arsenal players.

Man City fielded a strong team in both World Club Cup games. They wanted to win that, clearly, but it's more extra travelling and extra games.

At the age of almost 34, Kyle Walker has played 2,362 minutes, or 26.2 full 90s, when Salah tops the Reds' list at 1,773 minutes, or 19.7 "90s".

Going into this weekend's game, Salah had therefore played 33% fewer minutes than Walker, but no Liverpool players have played within 20% as many minutes as William Saliba, Phil Foden, Declan Rice and Gabriel Dos Santos.

That doesn't mean these rival sides will definitely tire, but Arsenal, in particular, seem to thrive with a settled XI and few injuries to the XI (most of their injuries are to squad players). Declan Rice is a machine, but on the back of one super-long season with West Ham, he may run out of gas. It has to catch up with players at some point.

(Plus, of course, Liverpool go to Arsenal in the FA Cup, which will be interesting in terms of both managers' selections; and Liverpool have two cup games against Fulham, but those will see similar XIs to the one that thrashed West Ham, I assume.)

And none of these factors mean Liverpool will therefore automatically take advantage, especially with a brand new midfield and now a mounting injury list (some are due back soon); just that the possibility is there.

Ditto on winning the home games against City, Spurs, Chelsea, Newcastle and Brighton – just that the probabilities are greater than winning the away games against those five, which Liverpool did only once, albeit the Spurs defeat was due to the officials. (Liverpool have to go Arsenal, Man United, Aston Villa and Everton, but those games are nicely spread out.)

I wrote in more depth on the context the other day, analysing the data but also the extenuating circumstances, and fixture difficulty. (Link below)

As noted then, Liverpool are integrating an entire new midfield, and understandings and adaptations are only likely to improve with time, and few risks of exhaustion at this point.

Anyway, onto the Arsenal game. Lots to enjoy, in amongst some frustration.

The rest of my analysis and the analysis of the others follows for subscribers only.