The Midweek Maxi #21: Abysmal Audio Awfulness, Biased Officials & a Title Challenge Regardless
Our new Liverpool FC weekly compendium. News. Stats. Views. Debate. Links. Data. Insights. Delights.
To read about why we’ve replaced Free Friday with The Midweek Maxi, see the intro to the first edition.
So far the bumper weekly roundup is going down extremely well with paying subscribers:
This week:
Excerpts and links to the different pieces we've published across the TTT Substack network, prior to the paywall kicking in;
Then, some of the best comments from the site this past week;
Next, Daniel Zambartas’ bumper LFC News, Media & Transfer Round-Up
Job done! (Oh, and it’s also a discussion thread for the issues raised.)
Note: the Maxi may exceed the email size limit on Substack, but the whole piece can be read online by paying subscribers.
TTT Network Roundup
Links and excerpts to articles on the various TTT sites, which are run by different people and require separate subscriptions to this, the TTT Main Hub.
The Main Hub
With the shambolic nature of the officiating between Tottenham and Liverpool still simmering around the football world, it was the timing of Paul’s mega-study into the biases of officials when reffing matches between England’s top four clubs being published that was sweeter than a Szoboszlai thunderbolt days previous in the League Cup.
By Paul Tomkins
1.68:1
The key findings from the study are as follows, with all caveats and full explanations later in the piece:
The best two referees via my Objective Ref Rater coefficient are Michael Oliver and Anthony Taylor; the two referees generally described, subjectively, as the best. This pair are very close to the expected norm, and I had no idea who would emerge as the top two. So it’s a good sign that the model is on the right tracks, even if no model can capture every aspect.
Those ranked 3rd and 4th are Andre Marriner and Kevin Friend respectively. (Both recently retired.)
Manchester City, with the best xG ‘GD’ by a reasonable distance, get the best Balance of Big Decisions. This is to be expected.
Liverpool, with the 2nd-best xG ‘GD’ by a reasonable distance, get the worst Balance of Big Decisions, at roughly 14 fewer than expected. This makes zero sense, which is why I’m looking into the reasons behind it, such as the following point:
If Liverpool only had the refs objectively ranked as the best, or ‘most normal’, the Reds’ figures would be less freakishly bad; the worst (weakest?) refs, who do more games than the better refs, are extra-bad for Liverpool, it seems.
Several of the worst-ranking refs from the model now work as VARs or for the PGMOL, training the current referees.
A finding of real interest is that, in general, Liverpudlian refs (or from Merseyside in general) are much more likely to give a Big Decision to Mancunian clubs in Manchester, but much less likely to give a Big Decision to Liverpool at Anfield (albeit the only Liverpudlian ref who has done Liverpool is Mike Dean.)
Similarly, showing the exact same bend-over-backwards-bias (which is why this is an alarmingly predictable problem!), a Greater Mancunian ref, in general, is much more likely to give a Big Decision to Liverpool at Anfield than to give a Big Decision at Old Trafford or the Etihad to the home Manchester club.
Conversely, a Liverpudlian ref is much less likely to give an away Big Decision to a Manchester club, and a Mancunian referee is much less likely to give an away Big Decision to Liverpool.
So, on this part of the study, we can say that “rival” refs are overly generous when at the home of the “enemy”, but then extra harsh on those clubs in away games, when not feeling the pressure to try and look as unbiased as possible.
Whatever the reason beyond my subjective theory above, the data involving Liverpudlian and Mancunian refs in games involving Liverpool, Man City and Man United suggests an inability to referee “normally”. These are the kinds of issues I’ve been concerned about for years, including the feuds officials have that they cannot disguise (unless really forced to).
Referees who have done c.100 Main Four games since 2015 see their data cluster more tightly together around ‘normal’, with no extreme outliers – but still quite a reasonable divergence, from c. +0.3 extra Big Decisions For per game for some club/ref combos and -0.3 for others. This is roughly half the levels reached by the positive and negative outliers.
As a general fact, the home/away split for all Premier League penalties 2015-2023 is: 461 home (56.77%), 351 away (43.23%). Home clubs have the advantage of their fans, a familiar pitch, less travel, etc., and you would expect some home advantage that is not indicative of a ref being a Homer. That normal split can be said to be c.57:43.
A referee will make a Big Decision in a match involving a Main Four club every 2.74 games, with the ratio, as noted, 1.68:1 in favour of the Main Four club.
At home, Big Decision likelihood For a Main Four club doubles on a trendline, from playing the best teams (0.10 extra Big Decision) to worst teams (0.20).
However, at home, the Main Four between 2015 and 2023 averaged 2.2 Big Decisions for every 1.0 against. These are the strongest teams, so should be above the general league frequencies.
Away, Big Decision likelihood For a Main Four club also doubles on a trendline, from playing the best teams to worst teams; but it starts from a lower expectancy rate (just under 0.0), and rises to an expectancy rate very similar with playing the better teams at home (0.10). The trendlines for home and away Big Decisions for the Main Four are absolutely parallel.
Only five referees out of the 22 to officiate Liverpool games since 2015 have given Liverpool a positive Balance of Big Decisions vs expectations. These just happen to include the four ranked objectively as the most ‘normal’ referees (Oliver, Taylor, Marriner and Friend); plus Bobby Madley, who hasn’t done a game for the Reds since 2017 due to suspension for inappropriate behaviour.
For the other three Main Four clubs, at least ten referees have given the club a positive Balance of Big Decisions vs expectations. (See scatterplot to follow.)
Of the refs who are way below expected Big Decisions for each of the four clubs (88 ref/club combinations), no fewer than ten of the harshest 17 are “referee/Liverpool” combinations. (This has now gone to 11 of 17, if adding Simon Hooper’s data from Spurs; a small sample size, as some of these are, but it’s a lot of similarly bad small sample sizes that add up to over 200 games.)
Without Oliver and Taylor, Liverpool’s Big Decisions Balance (in the remaining 200+ games) would be more akin to a team below mid-table.
A VAR will make a subjective Big Decision intervention (so, not including offsides, etc.) every 8.38 games, or three times as infrequently as a referee on the pitch. (Which makes sense, as the ref should be seeing the obvious things with no need for the VAR to do anything other than confirm.)
Liverpool get by far the fewest subjective VAR Big Decisions of the Main Four, perhaps to counter the misleading #LiVARpool narrative. (They do get the most offside overturns, as incorrect offside decisions involving Liverpool by a lino are massively higher than for the other three clubs. Again, this is interesting given what should have happened at Spurs this weekend, as is why assistant referees are so eager to flag.)
Stuart Attwell is also by far the biggest Homer, with almost all of his decisions going to whoever is at home: the Main Four team, or if an away game, the team at home against the Main Four side.
By some distance, Liverpool games feature the fewest Big Decisions. Also, the fewest VAR overturns. Also, the fewest yellow cards. Plus, the fewest penalties. (And no second yellow card for an opponent since 2015, when all other regular Premier League clubs have at least five, and Spurs are nearing 10.) At times it seems like referees and VARs are totally passive during Liverpool matches; this season it’s been like they’ve not actually been on duty when it comes to obvious errors.
Refs do not make anywhere near as many bookings at Anfield. At Anfield, away players are booked only 93.4% as often as they are at Old Trafford, 85.2% as often as they are at the Etihad, and 78% as often as at Stamford Bridge. This may partly explain why no opposition player ever gets a second yellow card (a Big Decision) when playing Liverpool, as they more rarely get the first.
Teams’ win percentages can still be high with ungenerous refs, and low with more generous refs. But on average, Big Decisions change results by a big margin.
Rankings for Premier League penalties won per season since 2015: 1 Manchester City; 2 Leicester City; 3 Brentford; 4 Manchester United; 5 Crystal Palace; 6 Brighton; 7 Nottingham Forest; 8 Chelsea; 9 Fulham; 10 Liverpool. Dispels myth that smaller clubs don’t get Big Decisions. (Palace, like some other clubs, also beneficiaries of lots of opposition red cards, and are the biggest beneficiaries of 2nd-yellows.)
For those who want to read a summarised version, Paul sorted one out the day after.
The Zen Den
By Paul Tomkins
So it seems that things have not just clicked on the pitch, and in front of goal, but off the pitch too.
I always say that even if it's hard to learn a language, you can't wait five years; not everyone has great language skills but if you don't learn, you can't integrate properly.
Last season was more about being an individual, even if he did set up others; but it was all off the cuff.
His npxG+xAG was over 1.0 for much of last season, which is really high; before it fell to 0.93 by the end of the campaign. (NpxG+xAG is non-penalty xG plus expected assists.)
But in just 2.5 ‘90s’ this season, he’s flying.
His career shows a constant progression in that sense in his league output, even if his shooting was wayward last season.
0.65 Almería
0.89 Benfica season one
0.94 Benfica season two
0.93 last season
1.27 this season
His 2.5 90s this season have seen him score three goals, but it's also the importance: equaliser and winner with ten men away at Newcastle, and the game-changing goal against West Ham, which could be deemed the winner, but it needed Jota’s goal to make sure.
Add the Europa League game and it's four goals and two assists in 3.5 90s, which is sensational, in a still-small sample.
He’s missed chances, but not as frequently as last season, when it seemed like he needed four to score.
A “stunning miss” was how the BBC described this miss against West Ham at 1-1, but I thought that was nonsense.
He was in a great position, but to swivel and shoot in one move, and screw it narrowly wide, was not, to my mind, a bad miss; albeit you could say that he should have timed it better, clearly. But it wasn't really there to take a touch, and just because he was in a good position in relation to finding space close to goal doesn't make it the same as being there with the ball at his feet, under control.
The difference, to me, is like the difference between golf and cricket (and presumably baseball is similar to cricket).
In golf, few players miss the ball. They may slice it, but it's sitting still (perhaps even on a tee), waiting to be hit. It may go astray, but it doesn’t go behind them, or at a 90-degree angle.
But cricket sees players miss the ball a lot, as the ball is moving, seaming, swinging and spinning. An otherwise good shot that's a fraction of a second (or a millimetre) out can be nicked to the slips, instead of driven for four.
Strikers have to read the ball coming in at different angles and speeds, and unlike a cricketer, has to decide which part of the body to use. (Imagine having three cricket bats, one in each hand and one strapped to your head. Maybe I’ve just invented a new sport.)
This Red Planet
By Daniel Rhodes
This is the Reds’ record on quality chances for and against under Klopp. Last season was relegation levels defensively, whereas the peak was the heart-breaking 18/19 campaign domestically, when we barely conceded one big chance a match.
That’s the key target. Below is a list of the metric requirements Liverpool need to get anywhere near the 95 points I believe Guardiola’s side will finish with.
Three big chances and 2 xG per game in attack.
One big chance maximum and less than 0.75 xG against in defence.
Which equates to 1.25 xG difference.
Some fortune with injury, for example keeping Alisson, Salah and Alexander-Arnold fit for 90% of the rest of the campaign.
Officials not shafting us every week by sending off our players
In fairness, the more I watch Liverpool this season the more optimistic I get, but with the problems we have with some officials, compounded by the corrupt nature of our only rivals for the title, it’s just too difficult for me to give them more than a 25% chance.
If, by some magic wave of a fairness wand, the Premier League deduct some points from Man City, and we get some big decisions going our way, who knows… if anyone, as we know, can topple this oil-funded behemoth, it’s Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool…
Dynasty
By Chris Rowland
Bob Paisley, Shankly’s No. 2 for many years, could not have been more different as a manager to the talismanic, messianic Scot. Where Shankly was flamboyant and colourful as a character, north-easterner Paisley could appear dour and taciturn, almost monosyllabic and monotone before the media by comparison with his articulate, expressive, garrulous predecessor, and indeed only took the job with reluctance. But one thing they had in common was that they were both teak-tough inside. That and the shared experience of every game Liverpool had played in Europe so far, with the harsh lessons of Ajax and very recently Red Star Belgrade uppermost as learning experiences.
Liverpool had opened their European account with the 1973 UEFA Cup under Shankly. Paisley’s first European campaign as manager began in September 1974, in the European Cup, and it didn’t amount to much of a challenge, with the Reds winning the first leg against Stromsgodset Drammen of Norway 11-0, with no fewer than nine different names on the scoresheet!
In the second round Liverpool came up against familiar foes Ferencvaros of Budapest, the third time the two had met, with one win each so far. But it was the Hungarians who got through. A 1-1 draw at Anfield, with a stellar show from the Ferencvaros ‘keeper, was followed by a scrappy, dour goalless draw in Budapest, to give Ferencvaros an away goals victory.
Having finished runners-up to Dave Mackay’s Derby County in the league, Liverpool entered the UEFA Cup the following season, 1975/6. The first round was another England-Scotland clash, this time against Hibernian. The Reds lost 1-0 in Edinburgh, but won the tie due to a 3-1 win at Anfield with three headers by John Toshack. Real Sociedad were routinely despatched in the second round, 9-1 on aggregate, before facing two Eastern European sides in the next two rounds, first Slask Wroclaw of Poland, where Liverpool won both legs, then Dynamo Dresden in what was then East Germany, and a much tighter contest, with Liverpool edging it 2-1 at Anfield after a goalless draw in Dresden.
This set up a glamorous semi-final against Barcelona, featuring one Johann Cruyff who had played a key role in Ajax’s humbling of Liverpool nine years earlier. But Liverpool showed they had learned to play with composure in Europe, winning 1-0 at the Nou Camp before drawing 1-1 at Anfield before a then-record attendance for a European match of over 55,000. Liverpool had reached their third European final, and Paisley his first.
Lying in wait were FC Bruges, the Belgian side seeming rather a flat comedown after Barcelona. But this was a good outfit, led by renowned coach Ernst Happel, one that had already knocked out AC Milan and Roma (we would meet Bruges again in two years time in the European Cup Final at Wembley), and they soon showed it. In those days UEFA Cup finals were played over two legs, and Bruges shocked Anfield by racing into a 2-0 lead within 15 minutes of the first leg.
TTT Transfer Hub & Deep Dives
By Mizgan Masani
There are times when you see a player and realise that he is slowly becoming an important part of the team. Curtis Jones is entering into that phase of his career now. Liverpool were unbeaten in 19 competitive games in all competitions since suffering from a heavy defeat at Manchester City on the 1st of April (yep it was not April fool’s).
(Editor - Unfortunately the Spurs farce came after Mizgan had written this piece)
Jones has started 15 of them, one as a captain when he led the side out against Leicester City on Wednesday in the Carabao Cup third round.
It was after that defeat at City, following a sequence of bad results last season, that we saw Jürgen Klopp changing the system. The German did that by moving Trent Alexander-Arnold into midfield when the team had the ball to allow the number eights to push higher up and help the team have an extra body in midfield to dominate possession with.
Since then till now, although the system still needs a bit of refining (every system does require that to be fair), Jones has looked comfortable in this as a number eight on the left-hand side. It is almost like he has been given a particular role of recycling possession higher up the field and helping the forward line with the counter-press.
The 22-year-old has made 4.16 counter-press recoveries per 90 in the league in the last 12 months. He is over 70 percentile in this metric when compared to midfielders in the division.
Below, we analyse his performances in the recent past and why he is gradually becoming an undroppable player in the side.
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