The Midweek Maxi #24: Hazard vs Salah, Smart Shooting & “Munching Gladbach”

Our new Liverpool FC weekly compendium. News. Stats. Views. Debate. Links. Data. Insights. Delights.

To read about why we’ve replaced Free Friday with The Midweek Maxi, see the intro to the first edition.

So far the bumper weekly roundup is going down extremely well with paying subscribers:

This week:

• Excerpts and links to the different pieces we've published across the TTT Substack network, prior to the paywall kicking in;

• Then, some of the best comments from the site this past week;

• Next, Daniel Zambartas’ bumper LFC News, Media & Transfer Round-Up

Job done! (Oh, and it’s also a discussion thread for the issues raised.)

Note: the Maxi may exceed the email size limit on Substack, but the whole piece can be read online by paying subscribers.

TTT Network Roundup

Links and excerpts to articles on the various TTT sites, which are run by different people and require separate subscriptions to this, the TTT Main Hub.

The Main Hub

Get in!

A great result, from a strange, mixed game. But in the derby at noon, which is easy for neither fans nor Liverpool players after the international excursions, victory is the priority; especially after the debacle at Spurs that halted the Reds' rise up the table.

But ah, narratives.

I’ll get onto the game itself later, but it seems that Liverpool are not allowed Big Decisions according to the broadcasters.

Liverpool wait 303 games, or around 30,000 minutes of playing time (and over eight years) for a league opponent to finally be sent off for a second yellow (a point I happen to have been making in recent weeks), and the broadcaster TNT spends the game talking about how unlucky Everton were with the “decisions”; Rio Ferdinand throwing in a “well, it's Anfield”, which ignores the data.

Maybe the PGMOL read my recent study after all, and while not a generous ref to Liverpool, Craig Pawson is at least not as dangerously bad as all the newer, younger and weirder refs who, collectively, give nothing at Anfield and little to Liverpool in general. Indeed, too many refs are scared to give Liverpool big calls, as I’ve shown.

Then there’s how rarely Liverpool get penalties in general compared to even mid-table clubs (and no, that wasn't a dig at Manchester United).

Pawson now finally starts to follow the trend of only experienced referees giving Liverpool Big Decisions (unless it's Paul Tierney, and even he buckled late last season, after over 20 games without one.)

With my international break proving eventful (a double-whammy of fractured spine and glaucoma diagnoses ), it will be nice to update the refereeing data (no more full studies like this recent massive undertaking) with something to add to the positive column.

Prior to today, Pawson was another ref who had given Liverpool far fewer Big Decisions than ‘expected’ vs the usual rate for the most successful four teams.

Then Liverpool, who I've shown get about half the number of home penalties in the Jürgen Klopp era, get given a stonewall penalty via not the referee but the VAR (who was the same one who failed to send off Jordan Pickford for almost ending Virgil van Dijk's career in 2020) … and only then the ref, for a hand-out handball block of a cross, and even then it's treated as “a decision that goes Liverpool’s way” from the commentary team who spent the last 20 minutes acting as the Everton PR team.

Liverpool vs. Everton *Bumper* Post-Match Analysis

Andrew Beasley

A match decided by refereeing decisions. Surely not?

It’s fair to ask if Liverpool truly deserved to win. Opta Analyst noted at the interval that the Reds had taken their most first half shots from outside the box in a Premier League match since the final game of 2016/17. It was not their sharpest performance by any means.

Everton were inevitably going to try to dog out a goalless draw and perhaps pinch a goal from minute one, and the red card only increased that. The long-range shooting from Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dominik Szoboszlai left Jordan Pickford with only one save to make in the opening 45 minutes. It was an effort from Alexis Mac Allister, from a long way out, naturally.

After 74 minutes, the Blues had had more shots on target in the penalty box than the Reds, by one to nil. While the Michael Keane handball was unquestionably a penalty, would Liverpool have won without the spot kick? It looked far from certain.

And we must be honest, Ibrahima Konaté should have been sent off. Where I disagree wholly with the commentary team (in the UK) is that his dismissal would have been any kind of “game changer.” Look at the momentum graph in the Match Stats section below; the game was almost all Liverpool at 11 versus 11, so it’s hard to see the pattern of the match changing from attack against defence even if it had become 10 aside.

But whether Liverpool would have won is questionable. A strange performance, with a very satisfactory ending. Let’s take that and move on.

The Zen Den

When Hazard announced his retirement I saw comparisons with Mo Salah.

Not that it matters, in that Chelsea had great success with Hazard (albeit also real slumps), and Liverpool had great success with a player who Chelsea offloaded; but if the question has to be asked, you can see how one threw away his peak-years talent with laziness and poor application (including eating junk food, not training properly and turning up to Real Madrid in terrible condition), and the other built upon his with a ferocious work and training ethic.

Hazard is actually the perfect example of what Jürgen Klopp and his staff asked potential signings ever since their days at Mainz: would you be happy coasting during the week and scoring at the weekend.

Hazard is that player; the one who would be rejected.

Because these types add nothing during the week, and actually subtract. They make training worse, not better. So the team prepares worse.

The teammates and opponents in training aren't tested and improved by lazy stars. The tempo of training is lessened.

When someone like Paul Pogba is accused of being lazy there's a backlash that it's about his ethnicity (Graeme Souness' repeated criticisms of Pogba have been labelled as racist in places like The Athletic); but sometimes players are lazy. On the pitch, and off the pitch.

Someone like Pogba arguably made it worse with the diamond earrings and peacock hairstyles, as it just drew more attention to his failings.

(I worry about Liverpool players with ponytails for this very reason. I don’t think it helped Lucas Leiva, Andriy Voronin, Andy Carroll and now Darwin Núñez. To me, you can do that when you’re part of the’s world’s elite, and proving yourself game after game. Lucas improved once he got a sensible haircut!)

While I often talk about the Toxic Rot of the Ageing Superstar (which was my worry with Mo Salah this season, but where I've done a full 180º turn on that), Pogba and Hazard embody the Toxic Rot of the Lazy Superstar.

The 'Ageing' variety I've spoken about included Lionel Messi (final seasons at Barcelona), Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus and Man United second time around), and even Steven Gerrard in his swansong campaign; they main train superbly, have incredible talent, but you can see then fizz with frustration at their body no longer carrying them as quickly and powerfully as it once could.

Hazard Was More Talented Than Salah, But Salah Proved Better Than Hazard Overall

The powers wane, the reaction times slow, the strength diminishes and the pace fades. They want to be the centre of attention as that's all they've known, often since they were locked into adoration at 17 or 18.

It's a toxicity that can be seen in how many times Chelsea imploded with Hazard there, even if he could be stunning on the weekend in some seasons. In other seasons, he'd go missing; while Belgium fell short of major honours.

He gave a lot of pleasure and did amazing things, and I don't want to underplay stuff like that. Joy is vital.

But fans also pay to see consistency, professionalism, effort. And if we're comparing two players, you'd take the one with greater output and greater trophy success.

Mo Salah wipes the floor with Hazard (just half a year older) in those terms, and has played in a better teams (Liverpool 2018-2022) than Chelsea ever were with Hazard.

This Red Planet

In the early stages of the first half, Liverpool attacked straight from a corner and look at this perfect position to score on the counterattack. Gravenberch’s first time left-footed pass set up Szoboszlai, his driving pace and dribbling ability got away from the Everton players scrambling back and at one point we had a four versus two. It’s difficult to criticise his choice. At the moment of the pass, it looks like Jota is blocking the obvious pass to Salah who is in the best position to shoot and the most space. The pass he does make picks out Diaz, who tries to go on the outside but has his shot blocked. It is our best chance of the first half at 0.13 xG (or a 13% of being scored) which seems on the low side to me looking at the image below.

Next up is a look at various counter attack opportunities we had against Everton before they got a man sent off. In fact, despite the fact we’d waited - incredibly - about the same time it was since the above Swansea analysis, to have a player sent off for two bookings against us, I did suggest to Paul at the time that it might actually work against us because it was still 0-0. Liverpool were creating multiple opportunities on the break. But just couldn’t finish them off.

Above is essentially a four versus one overload, they don’t get much better than that but it was poorly executed pass from Diaz that allowed Everton to, somehow, recover.

To Shoot or Not to Shoot: That Was the Question vs Everton

Dynasty

May 25th.

That glittering date is heavily laden with magic for Liverpool fans. The day the Reds finally became European champions - and you never forget your first time. It later received a liberal additional sprinkling of stardust in Istanbul on the very same date.

But on May 25th 1977, it was Liverpool v Borussia Mönchengladbach, Olympic Stadium, Rome. The European Cup Final.

In fact there was magic everywhere that night – in the Stadio Olimpico and its unsurpassed setting surrounded by tree-lined hillsides, in all those red and white chequered flags, in the famous Joey Jones banner, in the glorious Italian sunshine of late spring, even in the majestic fighting cocks design of the match ticket.

Liverpool in Europe, Part 3

TTT Transfer Hub & Deep Dives

If we look at the overall xG difference table, Liverpool are fifth. They jump up to the top when the adjusted metrics are added. Just goes to show that the Reds are doing well on instances when the referees are not sending their players for dubious reasons (none of the four red cards in the league this season have been clear-cut).

The moral of the story is - Liverpool can/will win most games of football when they are in their full quota on the field.

2023/24 PL Teams Numbers - Attack, ft. Liverpool

This section has a data visual showing where Liverpool are at among Premier League teams this season when it comes to a couple of attacking metrics.

Liverpool are second in the league when it comes to xG created per 90. Considering that they have played almost 160 minutes out of the possible 750 with less than 11 men, that is impressive work. It is just a reconfirmation of them doing well going forward. It won’t be a surprise if this team scores plenty of goals in the next seven months of this campaign.

Deep Dive on the Reds’ Key Underlying Statistics